February CET

[LomondSnowstorm]

-2.8º

Ok, I take it the next ice age is nigh

I'll go for 3.4C, with a mix of benign, averageish weather and a decent cold spell.

[Mark Bayley]

Colder start, turning more settled the 2nd and 3rd week before turning a little colder towards the end. Will plump with a Northerly. Hopefully if it does turn more settled it will be cool/mild and frosty! Not mild and dull with the high sitting to the South

3.8c for me

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'll go with 3.9C for the moment, but could be much colder.

[The PIT]

Since the disaster guess for jan I'm going for 5c above normal but we don't get many below average months these days hence the 5c punt.

[Snowyowl9]

Conflicting views this month so I`m going for close to average at 4c

A cold settled start then HP close by or over us with frosts,then a milder spell followed by a cold last week hopefully an easterly but it`ll probably be a N-ly.

Last feb was 4.1c with a very mild 2nd half.

February 2006 was 3.7c a month like that would be a perfect way to end this winter.

Edited January 24, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'll say 4.9C for now. I currently anticipate a similar type of February to the likes of 1973 and 1999, with frequent high pressure to the south and west bringing a combination of mild anticyclonic westerly weather and cold northerly outbreaks, but I think it will be less warm overall than 1999.

[Optimus Prime]

Last feb was 4.1c with a very mild 2nd half.

Or very cold first half.

5.3c for me at the moment.

[trickydicky]

2.9 degrees Celsius. You wait for a sub 3 month to come along... you know the rest.

[Nights King]

3.1c for me please

[phil nw.]

An early punt for me as i am away for 3weeks.

I will go for 4.5C.

[Methuselah]

I'll guess at 3.9C, please...

[Rich_Clements]

A late punt from me I am going the cold route, 2.5c

[James M]

I'll try some reverse psychology again as it seemed to work last time , 5.7°C for me

[Nick B]

2.3° for me please.

[Jack Wales]

Feb 9th is my birthday

All the best people are born on Feb 9th!! I can recall numerous occasions where snow has fallen on my birthday too. I don't think it will happen this year though, as I interpret the medium term signals to be fairly mild with any cold being derived from inversion/anticyclonic type synoptics.

I also believe there is a chance of a colder spell towards the end of the month but certainly not as notable as the December/January cold spell. Therefore a Predict a CET of 3.9°C

[kold weather]

I'll go for 3.8C, synoptics point to a very mixed bag this month, could well see something for everyone and I'd have gone for average if it weren't for the colder then normal SST's around our shores and esp to our east right now.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Since the step-change in UK winters around 1988 there was widespread snowfall on the 9th February in 1991, 1999, 2007 and 2009, while more localised falls occurred in 1988 (associated with a severe Atlantic gale) and 1995.

It may or may not be the snowiest day of the year averaged over the last 100 years but I think some other days have been snowier in recent years. The period Boxing Day to New Year's Eve sticks out, as does the last week of February stretching up to the first few days of March. Snow fell quite widely on the 1st March in 1988, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005 and 2006, and in 2004 many places had a snow cover on the 1st March (though the day itself was dry) left over from late February's snowfalls.

Regarding this upcoming February, although my current feeling is for something along the lines of 1973/1999 I am prepared to revise my guess downwards if some of the synoptics and teleconnections start to favour more northern blocking.

[Snowyowl9]

I wouldn`t want a repeat of february 1999 because there was no E-lys for starters today was just 1c higher to the coldest day then on feb 9th and a slight covering of snow at the most that month on the 7th.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1999/Rrea00119990207.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1999/Rrea00219990207.gif

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, the February 1999 northerly on the 7th-10th was a lot less cold than one may expect given the synoptics- while it snowed pretty widely, temperatures also widely reached 3 to 5C by day, resulting in significant thawing of any snow cover, and no day had a CET below zero. I'm not sure why this was. It doesn't mean it will happen this time around though, particularly as the SSTs around our shores are lower than in the generally mild winter of 1999.

It will be interesting to see how low the CET gets in the upcoming northerly. February's CET is still pretty uncertain at this stage as much depends on how the pattern evolves beyond the initial northerly.

[Polar Gael]

2.8°C for me please.

[Paul T]

Northerly > cooler westerly > south westerly > southerly/high pressure > Easterly > south westerly = 3.7oC

[Koppite]

3.6C for me please.

Edited January 26, 2010 by Koppite

[kold weather]

One thing to note, if the first 5-7 days see an HP build over the UK then IMO the CET could be quite a bit lower then I was expecting, I was rather expecting a good 5-7 days of 5-7C in the CET zone, also signs of blocking being stronger then expected on the models...

I won't change my predicition just yet but needless to say its possible for a colder month then Jan...IF we get lucky....

[Richard Lake]

Well considering where we are at I'll have a conservative punt at 2.2c. :unsure: :blush: :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold:

Edited January 26, 2010 by rikki

[dvdfjojo]

3.3 for me please