February CET

[shuggee]

3.1ºC

[damianslaw]

I'm going for 2.3 degrees, a fairly average spell to start but then a significant cold spell from about the 7th, cold conditions will prevail for much of the month, a sudden change to mild weather will help raise the CET a fair bit, however, this may not hapen until March in which case a sub 2 degree month is likely.

The atlantic will be very very weak almost a dead horse I feel in Feb, northern blocking all the way, February can be a very blocked month and a very dry one even after mild and wet Decembers and Januarys as the atlantic traditionally quietens down, this is not the time of year for the atlantic to suddenly stir into action. This winter is going to go down as one of the quietest ever in terms of storms and strong winds, gales have hardly be a feature so far, very unusual.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm revising mine down to 2.5C in light of developments over the last few days - mind you, verification of these charts could push it down a degree or two below my prediction.

think I may lower mine now to 4.2°C, from 7.1°C, my guess for Feb, mild first 5 days, 6th-18th cold with high pressure maybe inversion setup, 19th-28th fairly mild, mildest period of winter 09/10

7.1°C did seem a bit high, even with an atlantic driven month!

[Tom D]

I don't think it will be as cold overall as January - things are looking interesting for an easterly but can it last the whole month? I feel it will be similar to last year with a mild 2nd half.

2.8c for me.

[AderynCoch]

I'm just going to repeat my January prediction of 2.0C.

[Cymro]

Baswn i'n tybio 1.6

I would guess 1.6

[summer blizzard]

I am lowering my prediction to 1.2C.

[Duncan McAlister]

It would be remarkable to have two sub-3C months in a row after such a long gap, but with the models the way they are it's hard to rule it out. Even if we don't get a screaming easterly with sub-10C uppers it's not looking remotely mild for the first 10 days or so. High pressure to the north and east of the UK will bring cold surface temps regardless of the 850s. Also with February being a shorter month there is less time for any mild weather towards the end of the month to have a positive effect on the CET. So I'm going to go for 2.6C

[osmposm]

Good points, Duncan - and I will probably be lowering my intial (+4.4) guess in the next day or two.

[kold weather]

I'm tempted enough by what I see to lower my CET prediction to 2.6C, I'd be tempted even lower if it weren't for the fact that there is still quite considerable uncertainty and as I said earlier in the thread it could ejd up being rather majorly lower then even that figure if things go to plan

[DR Hosking]

I will go for 3.8c

[kold weather]

Its worth noting as Reef has said in the 'historic' thread, the next 31 days need to achieve 3.22C (before Jan adjustments) or under for us to get into the top 10 coldest winters in the last 115 years, so it'll be very interesting to track that over the course of Feb.

[Lettucing Gutted]

It would be remarkable to have two sub-3C months in a row after such a long gap, but with the models the way they are it's hard to rule it out.

1) The last winter were 2 sub 3C months occured in a row was 1996-1997 with December 1996 2.9C and January 1997 2.5C.

2) The last winter were all 3 months were sub 3C was 1962-1963 with December 1962 1.8C, January 1963 -2.1C and February 1963 -0.7C. This was also the last winter were all months were sub 2C.

3) The last winter were all 3 months were below their own 1961-1990 averages was 1990-1991 with December 1990 4.3C, January 1991 3.3C and February 1991 1.5C.

[Vesuvius]

I'm going for 3.15c in Feb therefore putting this winter in the top 10 coldest for the last 115 years

[virtualsphere]

It would be remarkable to have two sub-3C months in a row after such a long gap, but with the models the way they are it's hard to rule it out.

1) The last winter were 2 sub 3C months occured in a row was 1996-1997 with December 1996 2.9C and January 1997 2.5C.

January 1997 was also the last sub 3C month, so the last time a sub 3C month occurred, two occurred together!

[Stargazer]

Getting milder in the end - 4.1.

[Megamoonflake]

2.8C for me please

[Stu_London]

sub 3 again for me

2.7C

[I remember Atlantic 252]

[quote name='mark forster 630' date='28 January 2010 - 20:12 ' timestamp='1264709534' post='1755781'

7.1°C for my guess

Edited January 30, 2010 by mark forster 630

[Terminal Moraine]

I forgot to guess in January so for February I'll raise a cheery two fingers to the ECM 12z and go for -0.2c.

[Mr Maunder]

In my opinion the cold is not going away fast. I'm going for 2.9c.

MM

[ukmoose]

Game over I think.

5.8 for me please.

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

8C

uh febuary CET, not July 2010 CET estimate mate.

I'm going 3.0C. The first half looks pretty cold, the second half could be anything though.

[The PIT]

Going to bring my punt down to average 4.2C

[Polar Side]

2.8C for me please.