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February CET


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Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

I don't have a problem with people changing their guesses once. It's an inevitable result of being scored higher than the people who make the same guess as you, but later - there's nothing to be lost by making an early wild guess, and it may be the (higher scoring) one you end up sticking with. But I do think that changing it several times is a bit of a bore, if only because it makes the job of extracting the entries so much harder (let alone trying to get the order of precedence right).

Maybe we should either only allow one change, or stop the bonus scoring by order of entry altogether? Alternatively, anyone who changes more than once could be asked to draw up and post the final list of entries!

Ironically, having spent a week assuming my +4.4 early guess was far too high, I am now wondering if it isn't actually too low!! And I may not change it at all.....possibly.wink.gif

Im sorry as i have said blush.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

I`m going to change mine to 3.7c so we can get all 3 winter months below the 61-90 average it was 4c but I`m going for a challenge only 0.3c drop. :)

The SW-lys may only last a week.

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

Think ill revise mine to around 3.9

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

An average 4.3ºC please, though I hope this is too high.

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

i think it will be mild very wet and windy 6.9c

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Must admit that i did not envisage the model swing, however it has occured and i cannot see my prediction becoming reality, so after looking at the data, i have decided to base this months final prediction on anologue based forecast, after veiwing the data for the MEI, AO and QBO, i have decided to base this forecast on a blend of February 1977, 1987 and 1992, so my prediction is 4.5C, 0.3C above average with the range they are giving of 3.6C to 5.4C. :drinks:

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

4.8C - faux cold could well be an issue come month's end but I'm thinking enough mild in the tank to counter this.

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

Rite I'll change mine again too 2.4 that's it final.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

3.8C for me please

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl

Well, this has been a difficult one, what with the models flip flopping about... I think I will pick some numbers out of the air and go for a surprisingly chilly 3.2c

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

last minute revision from me - 3.4C

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL

Could still go either way this month, and GFS is continually imprecise when it comes to picking major changes in trend. However, on the basis that in the best of times three cold months was a rarity - and we no longer inhabit the "best of times" - I'd take a punt on the upwards side.

4.2C

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Oops, slightly late. I'm going for a bang on average Feb temperature wise overall with colder and milder periods cancelling each other out.

4.2C

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Lets say this February was as mild as 1779 which had a CET of 7.9 and using the December and the provisional January CET values then this winter would end up with a CET of 4.1C

February CETs and final winter CETs (rounded up or down to nearest decimal point)

7.9 --> 4.1

7.5 --> 4.0

7.0 --> 3.8

6.5 --> 3.7

6.0 --> 3.5

5.5 --> 3.3

5.0 --> 3.2

4.5 --> 3.0

4.0 --> 2.9

3.5 --> 2.7

3.0 --> 2.6

2.5 --> 2.4

2.0 --> 2.3

1.5 --> 2.1

1.0 --> 1.9

0.5 --> 1.8

0.0 --> 1.6

-0.5 --> 1.5

-1.0 --> 1.3

-1.9 --> 1.0

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