Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[benb]

I think once the friday warm sector is out of the way the northerly will get on with the job of freezing us just enough to allow the snow to pile up!

Let's hope so!

I guess the warm sectors are the price we pay for the NNW/NW wind that's going to (hopefully) feed the precipitation inland.

Judging from the charts, it does look the right side of marginal (perhaps excluding the extreme west) from Fri afternoon until Monday.

Fingers crossed it still looks that way in the morning...

[andymusic]

Suppose i will have to renew my radar subscription.

What i want to know is will Andy get his -12 degrees celsius??

Soooooooooo, it erm was a bit cold this morning then it was a bit mild and it didnt snow but hey.

Not this weekend - but if the negative thingy AO thingy rachet thingy should happen around 7th - 8th Feb and we get a screaming easterly and Siberia comes to holiday in Wales welllllllllllllllll that's another matter altogether!

[J10]

I wouldn't be surprised myself and if the blocking highs continue like they are supposed to then we will defo be getting a very hot summer - BBQs at the ready - but we'll need to get through this cold 1st!

Tonight's GFS 18z is showing a fair bit of snow coming through Wales Saturday afternoon!

This could be marginal (especially the further west you go), and personally I would rather at least a clean NNW feed into Saturday, however at least we still have this until about 3am on Saturday.

The event For Sunday Night looks less marginal at this moment.

Some snow does some possible for all part of Wales, Western areas from the showers/snow streamers, and perhaps from the little low presusre system, and eastern areas definitely at risk from these systems.

[Bobby]

Well there's certainly plenty of precipitation on the 18z, I don't think it's going to be an uneventful boring Northerly. It's looking quite marginal though at times. Looking OK now though.

[andymusic]

This could be marginal (especially the further west you go), and personally I would rather at least a clean NNW feed into Saturday, however at least we still have this until about 3am on Saturday.

The event For Sunday Night looks less marginal at this moment.

Some snow does some possible for all part of Wales, Western areas from the showers/snow streamers, and perhaps from the little low presusre system, and eastern areas definitely at risk from these systems.

Eastern areas - that'll be me then - Shovels at the ready - AGAIN! - oh and 4x4 tractors! - (not sure it'll be that bad but you never know)

Edited January 27, 2010 by andymusic

[Costa Del Fal]

This could be marginal (especially the further west you go), and personally I would rather at least a clean NNW feed into Saturday, however at least we still have this until about 3am on Saturday.

The event For Sunday Night looks less marginal at this moment.

Some snow does some possible for all part of Wales, Western areas from the showers/snow streamers, and perhaps from the little low presusre system, and eastern areas definitely at risk from these systems.

Sorry for budging into the Welsh thread for a post.

As our Midlands thread has no proper NW forecaster in...

Jackone, what do you think of the chance of the Cheshire Gap streamer setting up. To me the winds look very favourable at times. Whats your thoughts? Thanks.

Edited January 27, 2010 by Blizzards

[keithlucky]

I wouldn't be surprised myself and if the blocking highs continue like they are supposed to then we will defo be getting a very hot summer - BBQs at the ready - but we'll need to get through this cold 1st!

Tonight's GFS 18z is showing a fair bit of snow coming through Wales Saturday afternoon!

I get annoyed listening to the model thread no easterley on the horizon yesterday was , listening to various met experts they say its a cert from the 7th even old derek says so!

[matty lfc]

Im a complete novice to all this chart/model reading and whilst it's great fun and quite addictive,im still relying on memory for most of my forecasts.

From what i recall,a Northerly is not great for wales,especially a N/Easterly.We also dont get that much from an easterly,just very,very clod with the odd flurry.

It seems to me,we(south wales) always get our biggest falls from a battleground event from the sw

[andymusic]

I get annoyed listening to the model thread no easterley on the horizon yesterday was , listening to various met experts they say its a cert from the 7th even old derek says so!

I wouldn't worry about it Keith, it goes right over my head - I think you have to formulate your own ideas and stick to what you understand and the experiences you have with the weather - I don't think alot of them completely understand what's really happening this year with our winter with the blocking highs and strat warming over the artic - it isn't like any winter we know really in the last 30 years so just like the models try to do, the "forecasters" on the model thread are doing a similar thing by applying the old "even larger teapot" rules to this winter - wrong - very wrong!

Edited January 27, 2010 by andymusic

[Bobby]

Im a complete novice to all this chart/model reading and whilst it's great fun and quite addictive,im still relying on memory for most of my forecasts.

From what i recall,a Northerly is not great for wales,especially a N/Easterly.We also dont get that much from an easterly,just very,very clod with the odd flurry.

It seems to me,we(south wales) always get our biggest falls from a battleground event from the sw

This is more of a NNW'wly which can be very good for Wales, especially N. and W. Wales. Also as it's an unstable flow there will likely be more organised features that could give significant snow to anywhere in Wales (as currently showing on the 18z GFS).

[andymusic]

Im a complete novice to all this chart/model reading and whilst it's great fun and quite addictive,im still relying on memory for most of my forecasts.

From what i recall,a Northerly is not great for wales,especially a N/Easterly.We also dont get that much from an easterly,just very,very clod with the odd flurry.

It seems to me,we(south wales) always get our biggest falls from a battleground event from the sw

I think you'll find in this current winter we are having the cold is colder and more penetrating - therefore any set up could deliver - admittedly the low from the south west and a battleground can be the best for us but if this easterly were to come off round about the 7th - 8th Feb I think you'll find most of the UK will feel it's effects!

[keithlucky]

I am not worried just some of these people dont appricate what a great winter we had when its snowing mild next week barbeque weather tommorow,a lot have got

Psychosis LOL

[Bobby]

For us in Wales the interest in easterlies is not from the easterly itself and the snow it can bring (as that mainly affects eastern Britain). The interest is tthe cold air it brings, setting things up so that any precipitation moving from the Atlantic hits the cold air and turns to snow. We rarely get anything from the easterly itself but very often get big snow events as the Altantic attacks.

[andymusic]

Has anyone else got a fairly brisk wind tonight? It seems to be blowing quite hard here at the moment yet GFS doesn't have much and even XC weather has hardly anything over Wales - admittedly I'm on the top of a mountain above Ponty but it just seems strange that's all!

For us in Wales the interest in easterlies is not from the easterly itself and the snow it can bring (as that mainly affects eastern Britain). The interest is tthe cold air it brings, setting things up so that any precipitation moving from the Atlantic hits the cold air and turns to snow. We rarely get anything from the easterly itself but very often get big snow events as the Altantic attacks.

Admittedly but I've known easterlies deliver quite hefty amounts of snow as well to Wales

[matty lfc]

Has anyone else got a fairly brisk wind tonight? It seems to be blowing quite hard here at the moment yet GFS doesn't have much and even XC weather has hardly anything over Wales - admittedly I'm on the top of a mountain above Ponty but it just seems strange that's all!

Admittedly but I've known easterlies deliver quite hefty amounts of snow as well to Wales

Very windy up here although a tad milder than last few nights

[andymusic]

Very windy up here although a tad milder than last few nights

Just opened the front door and it's blowing a gale - very weird this - nothing on XC weather or GFS maps for tonight - someone got this wrong may be!

[Jamie.]

Im a complete novice to all this chart/model reading and whilst it's great fun and quite addictive,im still relying on memory for most of my forecasts.

From what i recall,a Northerly is not great for wales,especially a N/Easterly.We also dont get that much from an easterly,just very,very clod with the odd flurry.

It seems to me,we(south wales) always get our biggest falls from a battleground event from the sw

Agree. North & West Wales tend to do well out of this setup.

Even though the showers may become more organised from the north, the mountains eat it all up by the time it reaches the south.

East winds brings cold and dry weather mainly.

Usually it's the cold air and LP from W/SW that delivers... but then that usually means a breakdown.

[matty lfc]

Just opened the front door and it's blowing a gale - very weird this - nothing on XC weather or GFS maps for tonight - someone got this wrong may be!

Bit like that sunset yesterday evening.Very strange looking but absolutely stunning.

Been a fantastic winter so far.

[andymusic]

Bit like that sunset yesterday evening.Very strange looking but absolutely stunning.

Been a fantastic winter so far.

It sure was - thought I was on the set of "Total Recall" on the martian planet - really scarey - might be a sign of things to come! Cold things!

[keithlucky]

Agree. North & West Wales tend to do well out of this setup.

Even though the showers may become more organised from the north, the mountains eat it all up by the time it reaches the south.

East winds brings cold and dry weather mainly.

Usually it's the cold air and LP from W/SW that delivers... but then that usually means a breakdown.

Thats whats fascinating about streamers i have seen very small line of showers produce 3incs of snow gone half of mile up the road a dusting , great radar watching though.

[Marcus_surfer]

Winds turning Northwesterly, Northerly here.

[Stevetynant]

Could be the start of things to come for the next 20 years or so due to global cooling!

NOT ME!

Quite a complicated picture over the weekend but no doubt we'll defo know closer to the time if snow is really a certainty and I think some of us in Wales will see a few inches of the white stuff - dates for your diaries of 7th - 8th Feb seem to be the next major spell of cold though - just keep an eye on the models for those dates!

BBC Seem to be agreeing but forecasting little chance of precipitation (From the 8th Feb) "The temperature signal is for sub-zero daytime values and widespread night frosts.Precipitation of any sort seems unlikely."

I know things can change very quickly but they seem pretty confident

[matty lfc]

As so many on the model threads keep saying,lets get the cold first and worry about precip later.

After this fairly moderate northerly,any cold in the mid to long term is still very much up in the air

[andymusic]

As so many on the model threads keep saying,lets get the cold first and worry about precip later.

After this fairly moderate northerly,any cold in the mid to long term is still very much up in the air

easterly is still looking a good bet mind

[Jamie.]

As so many on the model threads keep saying,lets get the cold first and worry about precip later.

After this fairly moderate northerly,any cold in the mid to long term is still very much up in the air

That's my thoughts. Let's get the cold in first and the snow will follow eventually.