Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[welshwizard]

welsh weather by derick just showed not much in the way of snow for us for the weekend,a little on hills but did say that it looks like feb is going to be cold he did explain why but i am to slow at typing to write it lol.

[andymusic]

welsh weather by derick just showed not much in the way of snow for us for the weekend,a little on hills but did say that it looks like feb is going to be cold he did explain why but i am to slow at typing to write it lol.

Siberian Easterly on the way!

[Marcus_surfer]

All aboard the rollercoaster again!

[keithlucky]

Siberian Easterly on the way!

lets consider the weekend i know the met are saying scattered wintry showers for saturday more showers sunday ,but there own surface pressure charts are showing quiet showery weather for us saturday sunday confusing or what?

[andymusic]

lets consider the weekend i know the met are saying scattered wintry showers for saturday more showers sunday ,but there own surface pressure charts are showing quiet showery weather for us saturday sunday confusing or what?

GFS can't make it's mind up either - on off on off - gonna be nowcasting - radars at the ready!

[Bobby]

GFS 12z showing a pretty persistent snow streamer across Wales over the weekend. Might be a convergence zone looking at the Fax charts. Could be significant accumulations in places though it'll come down to radar watching I expect.

[marclt]

All aboard the rollercoaster again!

Toot Toot!!!!!

Still looking good for parts of Pembrokeshire this weekend... but streamers are so hit and miss... !!!!!!!

We need the temps to start falling, no point in that lovely snow melting quick!

[J10]

Sorry for budging into the Welsh thread for a post. :lol:

As our Midlands thread has no proper NW forecaster in...

Jackone, what do you think of the chance of the Cheshire Gap streamer setting up. To me the winds look very favourable at times. Whats your thoughts? Thanks.

Quite possilbe looking at the NW wind direction.

IMO snow streamers still like likely for the weekend and perhaps better than they did last night. With winds more of a NNW direction, W and SW areas are favoured, a direct northerly tends to restricts this to Pembrokeshire, and more of a NW wind pushes the showers into more eastern areas of Wales.

Tonight's charts not looking quite so good for eastern parts of Wales though, the threat of more general snow on Saturday does not appear to be there.

NAE goes for showers, and the upper temps are very conducive for snow (-8 to -9c).

[Bobby]

The air is quite unstable so I think there might be surprise features popping up over the weekend. We know these kind of things often aren't picked up until they're right on the doorstep. Take the early Jan snow event for example that appeared out of nowhere from an unstable northerly flow.

[Jayfromcardiff]

I'd rather look at the radar than watch BBC forecasts lol....more accurate at the time.

[keithlucky]

The air is quite unstable so I think there might be surprise features popping up over the weekend. We know these kind of things often aren't picked up until they're right on the doorstep. Take the early Jan snow event for example that appeared out of nowhere from an unstable northerly flow.

Well said come saturday i still expect a met warning saturday, i still prefer a notherley to a easterley for us seems to produce more snow over the years for us in the west than an easterley especially with a nnw angle to it.

[bennytes]

It sure was - thought I was on the set of "Total Recall" on the martian planet - really scarey - might be a sign of things to come! Cold things!

did you see this andy?

http://www.spaceweather.com/

''STRATOSPHERIC CLOUD ALERT: On the evening of Jan. 26th, sky watchers in parts of England and the Netherlands witnessed unusually colorful sunsets and prolonged twilights. Atmospheric optics expert Les Cowley believes that "we are experiencing an episode of Polar Stratospheric Clouds (Type 1) as a result of unusually low stratospheric temperatures. I saw them myself." High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for these clouds at sunrise and sunset in the days ahead.''

[Cymro]

did you see this andy?

http://www.spaceweather.com/

''STRATOSPHERIC CLOUD ALERT: On the evening of Jan. 26th, sky watchers in parts of England and the Netherlands witnessed unusually colorful sunsets and prolonged twilights. Atmospheric optics expert Les Cowley believes that "we are experiencing an episode of Polar Stratospheric Clouds (Type 1) as a result of unusually low stratospheric temperatures. I saw them myself." High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for these clouds at sunrise and sunset in the days ahead.''

That doesn't apply to us its just England and the Netherlands :lol:

[Cymro]

Well James Wright a forecaster on the Itv Wales tonight show (i rate him well) was overly keen on discussing the Pembrokeshire dangler and the posibbilty of snow rom it to many areas as we already know jsut go bac to january the 1st to see an example of this the trouble is we cant say right its going to definelty snow here and here because a 10 mile difference will be substantial either way its who's in the line for the showers at which point. I did very well last time i may not be so lucky this time and places in Swansea that did relatively poor considering how they normally do in setups like this may have a snow fest its really hit and miss. Let's awaite these suprises:) Most at risk will always be Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion and Gwynedd.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Well James Wright a forecaster on the Itv Wales tonight show (i rate him well) was overly keen on discussing the Pembrokeshire dangler and the posibbilty of snow rom it to many areas as we already know jsut go bac to january the 1st to see an example of this the trouble is we cant say right its going to definelty snow here and here because a 10 mile difference will be substantial either way its who's in the line for the showers at which point. I did very well last time i may not be so lucky this time and places in Swansea that did relatively poor considering how they normally do in setups like this may have a snow fest its really hit and miss. Let's awaite these suprises:) Most at risk will always be Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion and Gwynedd.

Its only good for SW parts of Wales tbh unless they penetrate to inland areas.

[J10]

Well James Wright a forecaster on the Itv Wales tonight show (i rate him well) was overly keen on discussing the Pembrokeshire dangler and the possibility of snow from it to many areas as we already know just go back to January the 1st to see an example of this the trouble is we cant say right its going to definitely snow here and here because a 10 mile difference will be substantial either way its who's in the line for the showers at which point. I did very well last time I may not be so lucky this time and places in Swansea that did relatively poor considering how they normally do in setups like this may have a snow fest its really hit and miss. Let's await these surprises:) Most at risk will always be Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion and Gwynedd.

We did well on January 1st here, also really belted down at the rugby that day.

I saw the comment on the Pembrokeshire Dangler, looking good for this weekend now. certainty 5-10cm of snow cannot be ruled out. Although any snow that falls may thaw quicker than the event early into the new year.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Looking good for parts of Wales over the weekend for snow showers.

Heres the 48h fax chart:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax48s.gif

You can see the convergence line coming down the Irish sea and running in to Pembrokeshire. Showers seem very likely there looking at that chart.

The 12z GFS brings showers further east:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs393.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs423.gif

Winds seem to be NNW-NW on the GFS which is going to bring snow showers for many in the west/sw. The upper temps are great:

http://expert.weathe...013000_2812.gif

NAE:

http://expert.weathe...013006_2812.gif

Indicating that showers will get further inland in Wales. With very cold upper temps making conditions great for snow:

http://expert.weathe...013006_2812.gif

If the flow stays to the N then showers will be restricted to Pembrokeshire, but with this Arctic flow sticking round until roughly Monday, then it gives room for wind direction to veer one way or another whether its to the N,NNW,NW so shower distribution will generally alter with the wind direction/flow.

NW, W & SW Wales seem the most likely areas to receive the showers over the weekend and given those upper temps and with the 528 dam line over the country then neally all of those showers should be of snow.

[andymusic]

did you see this andy?

http://www.spaceweather.com/

''STRATOSPHERIC CLOUD ALERT: On the evening of Jan. 26th, sky watchers in parts of England and the Netherlands witnessed unusually colorful sunsets and prolonged twilights. Atmospheric optics expert Les Cowley believes that "we are experiencing an episode of Polar Stratospheric Clouds (Type 1) as a result of unusually low stratospheric temperatures. I saw them myself." High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for these clouds at sunrise and sunset in the days ahead.''

No I missed that - thanks for the link though bennytes - thought it had cold conotations - it was really eerie!

Its only good for SW parts of Wales tbh unless they penetrate to inland areas.

There's a good chance with the wind direction that they will go inland at some point over the weekend! - radars at the ready!

[TonyH]

Spring starts on Monday according to the forecast in our local rag.

[Jamie.]

Ugghhh, forecast Tuesday on BBC online (although very likely to change): 8C and heavy rain, west winds .

Yes it's almost certain to change :lol: but where did they get idea of it being mild and wet Tues?

Am I looking at the wrong charts?

Edited January 28, 2010 by Jamie.ed

[keithlucky]

Ugghhh, forecast Tuesday on BBC online (although very likely to change): 8C and heavy rain, west winds .

Yes it's almost certain to change :lol: but where did they get idea of it being mild and wet Tues?

Am I looking at the wrong charts?

Possible be it bit milder tues but thursday the front will meet a brick wall as the beast from the east raises its head and comes to wales to put wales back into freezing conditions.

[Jamie.]

Possible be it bit milder tues but thursday the front will meet a brick wall as the beast from the east raises its head and comes to wales to put wales back into freezing conditions.

I see! I thought it was cold and dry Monday onwards but I now see a warm front waiting in the Atlantic Monday.

Hmmm .

Edited January 28, 2010 by Jamie.ed

[benb]

Possible be it bit milder tues but thursday the front will meet a brick wall as the beast from the east raises its head and comes to wales to put wales back into freezing conditions.

That's possibly looking like quite an interesting period for wintry weather. The change from mild(ish) to cold in the later part of next week has been developed by the models in different ways, generally on a theme of a cold dry air from the E/SE coming up against milder, moister air from the S/SE.

Wouldn't take much change for this to become a very snowy chart.

Obviously lots to watch in the nearer timeframe and then distinct possibility of the easterly in eight/nine days time.

Enjoy the weekend!

[matty lfc]

Spring starts on Monday according to the forecast in our local rag.

Lol quite possibly the worst forecast i've ever seen given the current charts and im a complete novice.He assume he gets paid for writing that drivel?

Sure,Tues and Weds may get a tad warmer,im talking 4,5,6 maybe 7degs but 13 and 14???!!!

[andymusic]

Lol quite possibly the worst forecast i've ever seen given the current charts and im a complete novice.He assume he gets paid for writing that drivel?

Sure,Tues and Weds may get a tad warmer,im talking 4,5,6 maybe 7degs but 13 and 14???!!!

There is a reason why he's writing for a cambrain news newspaper in west wales and not a main newspaper in London then!

Hasn't he seen the charts and doesn't he know siberia is coming to holiday in Wales in about 10 days time?

Edited January 28, 2010 by andymusic