Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Cymro]

In defence of Sianel Pedwar Cymru, They do not produce the weather forecasts its Itv, and in all fairness theyre weather forecasts are usually good what is written in the paper i clearly doesnt resemble theyre weather programmes or theyre weather website take a look. They have preformed better than the Bbc even if theyre forecasts do look outdated and old fashioned. And he is a good forecaster but the trouble with writing in the paper is that things change in hours and therefore are never accurate to be fair there should be a general prediction not a certain dab dab this tempreature etc because those are way out so trebble what the tempreatures are likely to be.

I can't complain about not having good snow 15 days of January complete snow cover and there are still snow drifts lying around in the mountains i call them Patchys eira Dyffryn Aman and i Wouldnt say east has had more than West etc did you see the drifts in the Preseli Area etc and round here ? its pretty even if you ask me.

[andymusic]

A new developing situation on the models for wednesday/thursday/friday next week could mean continous snow in Wales as the cold air sits half way across the british isles and the cold high holds up an atlantic front which drops it's snow sitting on top of us in Wales. Could be quite a lot of snow from this! Will all depend where the cold high sets up shop!

Edited January 29, 2010 by andymusic

[Jayfromcardiff]

Snowing here lighlty, it's sort of sleety.

[marclt]

A new developing situation on the models for wednesday/thursday/friday next week could mean continous snow in Wales as the cold air sits half way across the british isles and the cold high holds up an atlantic front which drops it's snow sitting on top of us in Wales. Could be quite a lot of snow from this! Will all depend where the cold high sets up shop!

Could be good if it comes off. I think this is more exciting than the snow earlier in the year. It was so cold, we almost expected it. When things hang in the balance, there is always that element of surprise.

M

[liamcymro]

After heavy rain last night temperature dropped to around 3C around 9am this morning with hail/sleety showers, then around 10:30am showers turned to heavy snow with gusty winds that made it white for a few minutes and gave a quick covering. Temperatures now 1C with another shower making it way over Anglesey.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Metoffice have put out the advisory warning for: Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion & Pembrokeshire.

Widespread Icy Roads & Heavy Snow

There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting southwest Wales and parts of southwest England.

Sleet and snow showers developing overnight Friday into Saturday and persisting through much of Saturday and Sunday may bring some accumulations of snow, especially over higher ground, and lead to widespread ice on untreated roads.

Issued at: 1150 Fri 29 Jan

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

I still think showers will come slightly further west than that.

GFS Shows the streamer setting up

http://charts.netwea...6/15/ukprec.png

http://charts.netwea...6/18/ukprec.png

NAE still shows the streamer also:

http://expert.weathe...013000_2906.gif

http://expert.weathe...013006_2906.gif

[Cymro]

Metoffice have put out the advisory warning for: Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion & Pembrokeshire.

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

I still think showers will come slightly further west than that.

GFS Shows the streamer setting up

http://charts.netwea...6/15/ukprec.png

http://charts.netwea...6/18/ukprec.png

NAE still shows the streamer also:

http://expert.weathe...013000_2906.gif

http://expert.weathe...013006_2906.gif

Haha you mean east? i agree with you Although the showers may not be as intense i am suprised not to see, Swansea and Neath and Portalbot mentioned they usually do well in situations like this, I will keep my eye out tonight on the radar if i lived in those areas almost certainly a risk of some snow, Situations like this are yet to fail delievering for me here, Haven't had nothing yet however bitterly cold bit glorious sunshine, stiff breeze cloud to my west.

[The Weather Dragon]

Haha you mean east? i agree with you Although the showers may not be as intense i am suprised not to see, Swansea and Neath and Portalbot mentioned they usually do well in situations like this, I will keep my eye out tonight on the radar if i lived in those areas almost certainly a risk of some snow, Situations like this are yet to fail delievering for me here, Haven't had nothing yet however bitterly cold bit glorious sunshine, stiff breeze cloud to my west.

Llanelli eastwards won't see anything from this setup - as highlighted by the updated METO advisories

[Cymro]

Llanelli eastwards won't see anything from this setup - as highlighted by the updated METO advisories

I disagree completely with you, there are all ready showers in the areas mentioned and the wind feed isnt going to change all that litte, i live in Carmarthenshire btw yes east of Llanelli ill hold you too that

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Haha you mean east? i agree with you Although the showers may not be as intense i am suprised not to see, Swansea and Neath and Portalbot mentioned they usually do well in situations like this, I will keep my eye out tonight on the radar if i lived in those areas almost certainly a risk of some snow, Situations like this are yet to fail delievering for me here, Haven't had nothing yet however bitterly cold bit glorious sunshine, stiff breeze cloud to my west.

lol yup should have said east

The NNW flow has always delivered here in Swansea, so snow showers seem very likely, perhaps with the heaviest of these in the areas highlighted by the metoffice.

This NNW flow is shown well on the NAE:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/29/basis06/ukuk/pslv/10013000_2906.gif

[Cymro]

lol yup should have said east

The NNW flow has always delivered here in Swansea, so snow showers seem very likely, perhaps with the heaviest of these in the areas highlighted by the metoffice.

This NNW flow is shown well on the NAE:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/29/basis06/ukuk/pslv/10013000_2906.gif

Quite agree mate, im still to see a setup like this fail, and i hope this isnt the first time in the coldest winter in decades sorry cold ramp but back to basics, the likely hood of quite a few snow showers especially tonight is definetly a risk for the swansea area and as ar east as portalbot.

[dyl232]

will northwest wales see any snow from this ?

[nomad098]

Just had a shower pass through cardiff city center started to spot rain then got heavier with a bit of sleet mixed in then hail which was quite heavy

checked the barrage and they have repoted a temperature drop of 2.4c in approximately 1/2 hour

current temp 4.9c

dew point 2.2c

alot of mixed signals coming out of the model disscusion thread not sure where everything stands anybody else confused

[Cymro]

will northwest wales see any snow from this ?

Mae'n debygol o nawr hyd heno ond mae canolbwynt y cawodydd yn y de-orllewin min nos a dros nos,

It's likely from now till this evening then the concnetration of the showers is in the south-west.

[Cymro]

Anybody in wrexham here just seen the news seems to be snowing very heavy there

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Anybody in wrexham here just seen the news seems to be snowing very heavy there

Just seen that to on the news, shows how potent them showers can be.

Derek on the Welsh weather, showed snow showers coming into W/SW Wales and said a strong NNW flow. Looking good if you ask me.

[Marcus_surfer]

Yeah just seen that in wrexham, looks like it was sticking too, rain, sleet and hail shower here, windy and feeling bitterly cold

[keithlucky]

Cheers it looks like the NAE and the GFS want to set up streamers friday night into Saturday- Although the intensity off this is still uncertain.

gfs 18z:

http://charts.netwea...8/30/ukprec.png < 30h

http://charts.netwea...8/36/ukprec.png < 36h

Latest NAE:

http://expert.weathe...013000_2818.gif < 30h

http://expert.weathe...013000_2818.gif < here you can see the very cold uppers running over the Irish sea so showers should start to get going quite quickly.

http://expert.weathe...013006_2818.gif < 36h

As you can see the GFS has the showers more intense than the NAE, but its a good sign to see the NAE showing the same type of setup.

The GFS has been consistent in showing a steamer setting up over Wales, the risk does seem highest tomorrow night in to saturday morning.

We need this wind to ease otherwise no chance of any settling snow tonight .

Edited January 29, 2010 by keithlucky

[Jayfromcardiff]

Lol BBC already wrong already had 2 or 3 showers today, thought it was going to be dry good job i didn't go out in a t-shirt.

[Cymro]

We need this wind to ease otherwise no chance of any settling snow tonight .

Why do you say that? its in the form of showers wich will be quite potent, i think my first snow shower is knocking on the door here. Or do you mean the wind off the sea warming things up for you ? if thats your worry the wind shouldn't affect tempreature much not where you are anyway.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Why do you say that? its in the form of showers wich will be quite potent, i think my first snow shower is knocking on the door here. Or do you mean the wind off the sea warming things up for you ? if thats your worry the wind shouldn't affect tempreature much not where you are anyway.

Hi mate, i think any part of Wales could see a few showers tonight...What are your thoughts?

[Cymro]

Hi mate, i think any part of Wales could see a few showers tonight...What are your thoughts?

I doubt they will pentetrate in land like they have today as much but yes a shower is possible anywhere almost certainly more so western Wales however.

[Jayfromcardiff]

I doubt they will pentetrate in land like they have today as much but yes a shower is possible anywhere almost certainly more so western Wales however.

Good luck anyway, looking good for you.

[Bobby]

I've found that snow showers often penetrates further inland than expected in these situations. Anywhere in Wales could get something though North and West is best.

Is very hard to predict where these showers will go exactly and little features can pop up at almost no notice.

[keithlucky]

Why do you say that? its in the form of showers wich will be quite potent, i think my first snow shower is knocking on the door here. Or do you mean the wind off the sea warming things up for you ? if thats your worry the wind shouldn't affect tempreature much not where you are anyway.

Wind to strong wind blowing them through to fast ,anyhow looks like showers seems to be more organised over ireland hopefully be more potent before reaching here.