General Model Output Discussion:

[fulham snow]

Hi.

Im new here just thought i would say Hi.

Does all this mean we will get snow in the Epsom area.Cold is great but not the same without a bit of the white stuff.

[kold weather]

The thing is just like the December evolution, once we have a upper cold pool over Europe any easterly tilt to the airflow could quite easily drag the whole lot over the UK, esp given the real cold air is just over the North Sea...even a slight 12-24hr drag could do it...

FI throws up a very odd and messy evolution, esp between 216-240hrs with several shortwaves rotating around the outside a mammoth upper high...VERY cold run very much akin to the legendary Feb months, and after such a cold Jan we really are primed for possibly another severe month!

Overall....an unreal 12z GFS....and I've gotta be honest after the last 2 months, I can't quite believe I'm seeing yet more of this charts...if the 12z came off, then this winter could well make it to legendary status!

[snowmadchrisuk]

The GFS is showing 2m temperatures of freezing but the maximum temps a couple of degrees

higher. I have noticed it do this several times in the past but with 850's of -10c I would expect

maximum surface temperatures no higher than freezing or +1c at the very best especially at

this time of the year.

Maybe but remember our Ice days last time had Snow and Ice on the ground , this time it will likely be very dry inland at first and this will allow some Sunshine which is now also getting slightly stronger. We had -10's into the SE a couple of days ago but temps still got above freezing. Night time temps however will fall well below freezing .

[Southender]

Well, well.

That 12z GFS run verifies, we are back in the freezer for the first half of Feb.

I will bank this chart 7 days away, right now.

Edited January 26, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[Lewis]

Fantastic charts, what a cracking cracking 12z run, lets hope it's not a cold outlier, put it this way if the swear filter was disabled on this forum, i would have been banned 10 mins ago

[weather eater]

12z also brings in the easterly, that’s this morning ECM and the GEM as well as the 00z 06z and 12z GFS runs, this mornings UKMO was also trending that way I feel. Its not that often we see such a consensus at such a range for a general pattern.

[Lewis]

Hats off too TEITS and Nick Sussex for predicting this!!

[Ben_Cambs]

What are peoples predictions for Thursday night into Friday? Cracker of GFS 12z!

[andymusic]

This is just out and out model weather porn - if this comes off the Siberian wastelands will have moved into our neighbourhood! - AMAZING!

Feb is gonna be a mega cold month this year - crank up the heating and here we go for the end of the week till maybe march - who knows!

Edited January 26, 2010 by andymusic

[nick sussex]

Here's hoping Nick.

I'll bank that run all the way, thank you very much.

Oh and here comes the beast in deep FI (Again!)

In a nutshell the further west the Atlantic high is the better chance of the easterly, it gives two options if the low near Greenland sends a shortwave se'wards it will head down on the eastern flank of the high, after this you'd get the ridge backing west over the top of the European trough, if the models dont go with the shortwave but instead just build the high ne'wards then this will mean the core of the high will be further north and a better chance of advecting the coldest air westwards to the UK. It's crucial though that the European trough remains stuck like a limpet initially to this region, one other factor is how far energy spills eastwards past Greenland,theres still a few hurdles to overcome but perhaps the best chance of the whole winter to see some very cold upper air advected westwards by this I mean those very rare -12 to -15s and possibly a touch lower.

However i'm not going to ramp this because alot needs to go right to get to the suggested set up.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Very exciting gfs , wonder of the boys at meto head office are sat around a table scratching their heads as to whether to start telling councils etc that deep freeze number 2 is coming?

PS Mods please can i have my PM function back i havent been able to use it for over a year.

[Yeti]

Hats off too TEITS and Nick Sussex for predicting this!!

Tbh I think BFTP may end up deserving a lot of credit; he went against even GP wrt a cold February and the Atlantic high eventually toppling into Scandi well before the models even hinted at this. Of course, we're still a long way from this happening but the signs are increasing that this may occur and if it does, then hats off to him

[Frosty.]

The GFS 12z run is a lot more wintry than the meto were suggesting 3 hours ago but perhaps their update is already obsolete. The only problem with this Northerly could be lack of inland ppn with the coasts getting all the snow showers but i'm not going to complain about a prolonged arctic blast.

[Southender]

What are peoples predictions for Thursday night into Friday? Cracker of GFS 12z!

A wintry mix I feel. Certainly not a mega snow event. Uppers and DP's are not favourable for long.

Anyway, that is just the beginning...

Edited January 26, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[Geordiesnow]

Getting a little bit back to reality, its nice too see the UKMO/GFS are trying to bring the low that develops to the west of Norway more closer to us and the UKMO has it far west enough to deliver alot of PPN to eastern areas i would of thought so. A little unexpected but a nice upgrade to the cold on this run.

A little dissapointing about the mild sector but the UKMO is slightly different and has slightly colder upper air temps which will make things less marginal i would of thought.

I suppose its one of those where it could either fall as rain or snow and we won't know until around 12 hours before any PPN hits us.

[nick sussex]

Hats off too TEITS and Nick Sussex for predicting this!!

Well i did go for the ridge ne'wards but that was more an attempt to find a way to keep the cold pattern going a few days back when it looked a bit dodgy!, even I didn't expect the models to upgrade it to this extent.

However theres alot of weather to get through before then and at that timeframe i'd be cautious about getting too excited, these easterlies are a real pain for the models to get right although at least the way to get there looks plausible.

[Cheese Rice]

An excellent run by the GFS. The easterly looks really good but I wont buy into it till the weekend, mostly because the Atlantic high could easily push further east stopping us from tapping into the really cold air. This could easily happen, so alot of caution is needed.

In the short term my interest is still on Friday morning, widespread heavy snowfall is very likely.

[Frosty.]

Hats off too TEITS and Nick Sussex for predicting this!!

Hats off to them if the same charts are showing by early next week.

Stunning 12z runs full of wintry potential but that's all it is at the moment..potential, the Northerly is nailed, but that is only part 1!

Edited January 26, 2010 by Frosty039

[full_frontal_occlusion]

Tbh I think BFTP may end up deserving a lot of credit; he went against even GP wrt a cold February and the Atlantic high eventually toppling into Scandi well before the models even hinted at this. Of course, we're still a long way from this happening but the signs are increasing that this may occur and if it does, then hats off to him

And the nominations for this winters Forecasting-Oscars are:

Best LR evolution: BFTP for 'Eastie Beasties', TEITS for 'Some like it hot but not a lot', Nick Sussex for 'Me too'

And the winner is.......?

But as they say in the business 'It ain't over till the fat lady sings.'

ffO

Edited January 26, 2010 by full_frontal_occlusion

[Lewis]

An excellent run by the GFS. The easterly looks really good but I wont buy into it till the weekend, mostly because the Atlantic high could easily push further east stopping us from tapping into the really cold air. This could easily happen, so alot of caution is needed.

In the short term my interest is still on Friday morning, widespread heavy snowfall is very likely.

It's not until mid afternoon friday until conditions become favourable of snowfall at for most levels including low levels. Which by then it would back edge snow for N areas.

Edited January 26, 2010 by Coast

[Cheese Rice]

What are peoples predictions for Thursday night into Friday? Cracker of GFS 12z!

That is a really tricky question, there will defiantly be snow, heavy snow. There will be snow as the front sinks south, for many the rain will turn to snow at some point if only temporarily on the backing edge. The problem is the track of the PPN is constantly changing and until we can see some consistency no one can be sure. If I was to forecast this now I would say heavy snow for Norwhich/East Midlands/Yorkshire/North East England and Scotland.

[snowmadchrisuk]

In the short term my interest is still on Friday morning, widespread heavy snowfall is very likely.

The models can't agree on Friday at all , UKMO has -10 850's over Scotland and Northern England , -5 over the rest of the UK and the GFS has 0 deg 850's over most of England , but it does seem strange how the GFS replaces 0 deg 850's with -10's in a couple of hours. I think the UKMO is more likely to be right on this one with the colder air already starting to filter South before the front even arrives.

[Iceberg]

GFS Ensembles are almost all trending cold to some degree, maybe an average of -10 come 8-12 days out.

Still little is known about the actual detail beyond 144, but it does look like Feb will at least start cold.

[Geordiesnow]

what do peeps think of ukmo 144?

Not sure its as good as gfs at the same timeframe?

Probably not but its a tad irrelevant though as yesterdays 12Z UKMO shown a slack NNW airflow with pressure rising yet 24 hours later at 120 hours, it has a low just to the east of the UK which is surported by the GFS 12Z run albeit they have the low further eastwards.

This low could help the Azores high ridge northwards and link up with the potential height rises to the north and east. equally, it stays flat and the risk of the Atlantic coming in increases.

[reef]

Can we stick to discussing the models and not the constant one-liners and backslapping of members over charts which are over a week away?

Reading through the thread its next to impossible for less knowledgeable members to have any idea what might or might not be happening.

Thanks.