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General Model Output Discussion:


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yep Iceberg, I think there has been huge changes in what was progged, though the fact the 12z ECM was one of the mildest runs last night should have given some clues this could have happened...

Still we are a long way out yet and thus plenty can mess it all up, however we are going to get a fairly decent northerly which is the first vital keypoint as it gets some very cold air into Europe, that then means even a weak flow from the N or E could well become very cold.

I also have to wonder whether the models are picking up on what GP was talking about last night in the Tech thread...

UKMO couild evolve any number of ways, in the medium term it would be less cold then the GFS by some way but it could evolve in the longer term well IF the shortwave running over the Azores high cuts-off and heads towards Europe.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Also worth noting this is a *very* fragile evolution, any over-running shortwave could be the difference between a very cold flow and something more akin to a faux Bartlett type evolution, the UKMO shows just how tight it could end up being as thats very much a 50-50 run there...

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm confused whether the charts are showing this week's predicted easterly forecast by seagulls - or this week's peak energy period massive storm?

It's not only you who's confused!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Ensembles also show why we must not get excited, they do look fairly cold and some do give a brief easterly airflow however most still go for the UK high evolution and a few look pretty mild with the high just sitting too far south or west dragging in cloudy anticyclonic gloom...

The evolution we are going to get is a very good base for cold, however its possible it may not come just yet, at least any real deep cold, but I suspect odds are still there for at least a UK high...

Will be interesting to see what the 12z ECM suggests.

Regardless, we look like having a good 4-5 day northerly airflow, which is pretty decent and Europe should cool down yet further as will those SSTs which is always good!

Finally, the 12z op run whilst having some support, is somewhat on the coldest side between 168-240hrs, most runs don't have nearly as cold and instead have the high to our SW/S which slowly builds northwards.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The UKMO 12z T+144 chart is not very good and looks like it would trend to milder weather soon after although up to T+120 it's very wintry.

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Also worth noting this is a *very* fragile evolution, any over-running shortwave could be the difference between a very cold flow and something more akin to a faux Bartlett type evolution, the UKMO shows just how tight it could end up being as thats very much a 50-50 run there...

Yes, yesterday i mentioned that a pressure build was likely near the UK with the possibility of an evolution to a ridge being taken N or NE in conjunction with heights out of the arctic.

The models at t144 are now as we can see at a crossroads where this could happen, and the GFS 12z obliges in this respect. However, the UKMO 12z looks subtly flatter and one could easily see a shortwave running east from south of Greenland towards Iceland and preventing that connection occuring. I know it is 24 hrs onwards but the UKMO 12z yesterday suggested a more amplified ridge northwards might occur. I'm not so sure about todays UKMO, and it will be interesting to see if the ECM follows the GFS this evening to underpin a bit more confidence in the evolution.

So it might still evolve in the way suggested, but today I think caution is a watchword, because it can still be scuppered at this timeframe. I think that the least that will happen will be a cold high close to the UK and the trough remaining near the Baltic into Scandinavia, but nevertheless it is a hurdle that needs to be overcome in terms of another potential freeze occuring - even if the GFS is currently up for the north easterlysmile.gif

Edited by North Sea Snow Convection
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

firstly great set of charts tonight,

i think its important not to over hype future developments as gp has said its possible a not so cold outlook.

as for snow forecast this is another subject to be carefull reading into and not to over hype as some could well become confused and dissapointed.

we still need the next few days of model outputs to put the icing on the cake.

but what is 100% is a cold northerly this weekend,

what happens after this is really guess work.

ive notice steve m and others have not been about,

but when things look good they will pop in for there idears.

so in my opion if there not hyping it up then i stay skeptical.

i just wondered what have seagulls got to do with the weather?:drinks:

and one thing i have noticed is its rather disturbed on the models around greenland surely this could be a spoiler in future developments.

Edited by badboy657
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The UKMO 12z T+144 chart is not very good and looks like it would trend to milder weather soon after although up to T+120 it's very wintry.

The 12z UKMO has some pretty solid support from the GFS ensembles funnily enough however whilst the 12z UKMO will probably at least some sort of milder interlude, its quite possible.

Lets just say the GFS op run is the most extreme evolution if every single factor falls into place, there is some support but its no more then say a 1/4th of the ensemble suite, many more go for a high to our SW/S to move northwards to varying extents over the UK and a few runs keep the high anchored to our SW.

Quite honestly I wouldn't be getting too excited yet, it'll be good to get ECM support but who knows what it'll go for.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

The UKMO 12z T+144 chart is not very good and looks like it would trend to milder weather soon after although up to T+120 it's very wintry.

There is so much difference between +120 and +144 I'm gonna laugh that UKMO +144 chart off tonight . regarding what Kold just said about the Ensembles , there is actually a lot more support for things to stay colder 3rd-5th Feb than there was on the 00z's . For Leicester the mean is now +1 850's on them dates , on the ooz's it was +6

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

ive notice steve m and others have not been about,

but when things look good they will pop in for there idears.

If they don't pop in soon they will miss it as next week will probably become milder after a cold start. A very good Northerly blast coming up but those expecting an Easterly to follow it next week are likely to be setting themselves up for major disappointment.

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

If they don't pop in soon they will miss it as next week will probably become milder after a cold start. A very good Northerly blast coming up but those expecting an Easterly to follow it next week are likely to be setting themselves up for major disappointment.

eh. why do you say that?

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

If they don't pop in soon they will miss it as next week will probably become milder after a cold start. A very good Northerly blast coming up but those expecting an Easterly to follow it next week are likely to be setting themselves up for major disappointment.

I don't think it is false hope based on the ensembles - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

At least 80% go for -5 850s or lower.

UW120-21.GIF?26-17

I like this chart for sun from UKMO http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

eh. why do you say that?

If you scroll up and read kold's post re the ensembles you will see why. And in my opinion the ukmo 12z by next monday shows the end within sight to the upcoming cold snap.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

If you scroll up and read kold's post re the ensembles you will see why. And in my opinion the ukmo 12z by next monday shows the end within sight to the upcoming cold snap.

I think you are on a wind up! What ensembles are you looking at? Certainly not these ones - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

UKMO doesnt even go out to next week so how can it show the end!

I'm not saying the cold spell is nailed but certainly very goodd chance - At least 80%

Kold actualy says "some sort of milder interlude" and this has been the case for next week for a while now. It was previously modeled as a brief milder snap until the end of the week when the cold returned. 12z has shown an evolution which prevent this mild snap.

It's great that this winter we are looking for potential "mild snaps" inbetween "cold spells"

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The thing that is interesting is the longer term suggesting of some pretty potent Northern blocking to develop in the second week of Feb on quite a lot of the ensemble members, so even if we were to get a total breakdown and milder air does come in its quite possible it'll only be a couple of day type situation before a reload.

That above all else is what I'm watching the ECM for tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

I don't think it is false hope based on the ensembles - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

At least 80% go for -5 850s or lower.

UW120-21.GIF?26-17

I like this chart for sun from UKMO http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

Yep i agree with you tim, the ensemble mean is below the -5 850's throughout so im not sure why some are saying the ensembles are not so good? Operational is no doubt the best run of the bunch but the overall outlook is cold isnt it? lets see what the ECM has to offer!

Edited by arron123
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I think you are on a wind up! What ensembles are you looking at? Certainly not these ones - http://www.netweathe...;type=ens;sess=

UKMO doesnt even go out to next week so how can it show the end!

I'm not saying the cold spell is nailed but certainly very goodd chance - At least 80%

Kold actualy says "some sort of milder interlude" and this has been the case for next week for a while now. It was previously modeled as a brief milder snap until the end of the week when the cold returned. 12z has shown an evolution which prevent this mild snap.

It's great that this winter we are looking for potential "mild snaps" inbetween "cold spells"

Its very uncertain is all I'd say now, I wouldn't put anything above 30% on any of the possible evolutions right now to be honest simply because there are quite a few small things that could easily ruin any long term cold evolution. Right now as Tamara said earlier on if I was to pick any one evolution I'd say northerly, then a high to our SW for a few days which builds over the UK...then after that honestly just about anything really could happen!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think you are on a wind up! What ensembles are you looking at? Certainly not these ones - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

UKMO doesnt even go out to next week so how can it show the end!

I'm not saying the cold spell is nailed but certainly very goodd chance - At least 80%

Kold actualy says "some sort of milder interlude" and this has been the case for next week for a while now. It was previously modeled as a brief milder snap until the end of the week when the cold returned. 12z has shown an evolution which prevent this mild snap.

It's great that this winter we are looking for potential "mild snaps" inbetween "cold spells"

Hardly a wind up, just urging caution against ramping something up which only has a partial chance of evolving if everything falls into place perfectly, all of a sudden the gfs is being believed beyond T+168 hours which is a bit of a stretch..let's see if the ecm 12z is still up for it.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

If you scroll up and read kold's post re the ensembles you will see why. And in my opinion the ukmo 12z by next monday shows the end within sight to the upcoming cold snap.

There is only one way the weather would go from there and it sure isn't mild.

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Posted
  • Location: Milltimber, Aberdeen ~ 80m asl
  • Location: Milltimber, Aberdeen ~ 80m asl

Lovely 120 hours chart from the ECM: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0

Snow showers for many, not just the north and east.

Strong winds too!

Karyo

The ECM is shaping up nicely isn't it. Looks like FI will be very good too - just need pressure to start rising to the north and a decent shot at an E'ly looks likely on this run.

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Posted
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem

The ECM is shaping up nicely isn't it. Looks like FI will be very good too - just need pressure to start rising to the north and a decent shot at an E'ly looks likely on this run.

There seems to be quite a consensus from both the ECM and GEM at around 144 of sending less energy into the northern arm of the jet. I would think this bodes well for any cold spell.

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