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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

I realise its a forum discussion and it can be talked about but just find really surprising that a northerly which does actually hold quite a bit of interest is being almost completely ignored for something we frankly cant be 100% sure will happen.

For me the northerly is interesting because even though it might not benefit those inland it will certain benefit those on western and eastern coasts, it's not just a northerly that would affect either the east or the west. I think there's a great deal of interest potentially in the northerly that being ignored for the easterly it seems.

I guess the reason is because 98% of the ppl on hear are snow lovers and this northerly like you said will mainly affect the coasts , where as the easterly has more snow potential for wider areas , from sorthely lows , convection off north sea , battle ground senarios ect, i do however have good feelings for this northerly as troughs and polar lows wont be picked untill 24hrs before the event , i also have the cheshire gap potential , time will tell .

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Well said im looking foreward to the nnw wind more than the easterley because it looks like we in wales benefit from the irish sea streamer . looks good for us saturday sunday with quite showery conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

I realise its a forum discussion and it can be talked about but just find really surprising that a northerly which does actually hold quite a bit of interest is being almost completely ignored for something we frankly cant be 100% sure will happen.

For me the northerly is interesting because even though it might not benefit those inland it will certain benefit those on western and eastern coasts, it's not just a northerly that would affect either the east or the west. I think there's a great deal of interest potentially in the northerly that being ignored for the easterly it seems.

What are your thoughts on this northerly and which areas will be favoured for snow? Such as when you say coastal areas do you mean 10miles or less inland or 5miles inland as im around 6-8miles inland this is vital for me and other members in here

Edited by Snowstorm1
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Yes - focus on the Northerly this weekend - it looks certain & will definatley bring some wintery weather & some suprises. The Easterly is & has always been deep in FI and it may well stay there. I for one will not be taking notice until the Easterley scenario is getting within a 144/120 timframe and has general cross model agreement. Teleconnections can & have been overidden in the past.

I think we should focus on the Northerly instead of the Easterly which is over 168 hours away although the gfs 12z is another stunning run with hardly any mild weather at all except for ireland and nw scotland for a time early to mid next week. The Northerly looks like producing a lot of snow to exposed areas in the north and east of the uk from northern scotland down to kent but for many it looks sunny but very cold with widespread sharp frosts.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The other thing to bear in mind is that an easterly is not a guarantee of widespread snow. Yes, there are plenty of cold uppers out to the east at T+168 and if we can tap into those, whether immediately as per GFS control run or after a delay as per the operational, we will get plenty of snow showers. But if we get a modified version from the SE with high pressure stuck to the NE it will be cold and cloudy and dry for most.

The thing with a northerly is that if it isn't snowy it will usually be sunny and crisp with overnight frosts.

Distribution of precipitation is very hard to pin down as there will most likely be a few troughs in the flow and the exact wind direction is uncertain- some runs are looking quite snowy for the west, others for the east, and others dry for most.

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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire

What are your thoughts on this northerly and which areas will be favoured for snow? Such as when you say coastal areas do you mean 10miles or less inland or 5miles inland as im around 6-8miles inland this is vital for me and other members in here

Exposed Northern & Eastern Coastal areas could recieve some heavy snow showers during the projected Northerly this weekend - all will depend upon wind direction and developments of instability etc. For example here in Pembrokeshire we are an exposed Western coastal region and benefit from instability forming snow showers over the Irish Sea. This projected setup often gives us our highest risk of snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Ware, Herts
  • Location: Ware, Herts

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100127/12/t2mLondon.png

What a remarkable set of ensembles from the 12z. There's only a couple of runs which come out of the cold after the northerly, and even they then return to bitter cold. I can't believe I thought we'd not see another widespread cold spell after what has happened so far this month, but at the moment I've been proven very wrong.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100127/12/t850Aberdeenshire.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100127/12/t850London.png

I think the 850hpa ensembles show a split of about 50/50 with some becoming less cold uppers after the northerly, then resorting to a cold easterly (like the 12z op) but the others maintain cold uppers for most of the reliable timeframe (including the control).

Reminds me very much of the beginning of January with most runs keeping uppers below 0c until mid February.

Edited by Tommyd1258
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

GFS op one of the very mildest runs for the start of Feb.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=198&ext=1&y=126&run=12&runpara=0

LOl is this the first time we've had a mild cold outlier ???

Looking like we'll need the low pressure to draw the colder air in otherwise it looks like most of the cold air would go down into the north as per years past. Only after it's gone through does it allow the cold air to really come piling in.

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Stortford
  • Location: Bishops Stortford

As I suspected, the GFS ensembles have just now started to revert back to a much colder outlook. :) I hope they stay like this this time!:)

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Well, I'm going to talk about the Easterly because from a purely selfish POV this Northerly is nothing more than a gateway to the promised land for me. Only an Easterly brings snow to my neck of the woods 95% of the time.

Some very interesting runs this afternoon. Are we leading up to another classic ECM 12z?? I suspect so.

I don't buy these quick evolutions to an Easterly, that are on offer on some runs though. A ridge up into Greenland certainly now looks very likely but I don't see it occuring as quick as some charts (albeit less today than yesterday) would have us believe. Still too much energy up there and will be for a while yet. The good news is though that it will likely be a dying force and Northern blocking will start to get a grip. I am confident that BY this time next week we will all be talking about an major easterly blast just 3-5 days away!

Still game on but as always here the devil is in the detail and timing is CRUCIAL

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

GFS ensembles have been largely consistant really i think theres hope yet ukmo will it give us a easterly although i do agree it is fi but it is the model output and if there that unrealiable then why do they go out to that distance.

and i think if we had 2 threads 1 for the easterly and one for the northerly then i think this thread come become very empty.

anyway ukmo outlook today are thinking ne or east flow,

the fax is good for the weekend but a little messy there after.

its most likely 50/50 on what happens in feb,

but i can see why people are more fixed on a decent cold spell.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

The GFS has moved the bulk of the PPN significantly further west, this is another scenario where the GFS underestimates the block to our east. For the PPN to move further west in such a short time frame leads me to believe the front will be positioned even further west, thus increasing the chance of snow for many North and Eastern areas.

Edited by 10123
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Posted
  • Location: North Yorkshire
  • Location: North Yorkshire

[quote

There is the possibility of some heavy snowfall for some areas this com,ing weekend and into nextweek ,the problem is where ,although it does seem like western and eastern areas will receive snowfall at times as the wind veers between points n,westerly and n,easterly so each day starting friday will be different as the wind alternates .

As we go into next week, shallow lows drift down towards eastern england keeping the northerly flow going but also bringing the chance of the heaviest snowfall to the south and east with showers becoming heavy and prolonged ,but the proximity of the lows will determine whether this occurs but there remains some serious potential for disruption should these charts verify.

Beyond this it seems to me ,that there wont be any overiding force eg we will be left in some kind of slack northerly or northeasterly flow until other factors take control ,but there seems to be a possibility of some very snowy weather as opposed to the intense cold from the east as the two meet in the middle

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Well, I'm going to talk about the Easterly because from a purely selfish POV this Northerly is nothing more than a gateway to the promised land for me. Only an Easterly brings snow to my neck of the woods 95% of the time.

Some very interesting runs this afternoon. Are we leading up to another classic ECM 12z?? I suspect so.

I don't buy these quick evolutions to an Easterly, that are on offer on some runs though. A ridge up into Greenland certainly now looks very likely but I don't see it occuring as quick as some charts (albeit less today than yesterday) would have us believe. Still too much energy up there and will be for a while yet. The good news is though that it will likely be a dying force and Northern blocking will start to get a grip. I am confident that BY this time next week we will all be talking about an major easterly blast just 3-5 days away!

Still game on but as always here the devil is in the detail and timing is CRUCIAL

Quite so S4L.

A long fetch easterly or southeasterly is what we need for the real thing in these here parts. That or a bullseye from a potent polar low (and the last one of those was April 1999. Anything else as the recent cold but not snowy in south Dorset spell proved is just flattering to deceive. Bring on the real thing which as you say is looking increasingly likely.

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Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

Im interested in the feature on GFS 12z shows on Sunday night, that crosses Wales, The Midlands, Then dives south through East Anglia and the South East

Edited by Snowman0697
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Some pretty impressive runs on the ensembles and some big change arounds as well compared to the 06z GFS, also pelased to see the 12z UKMO is light years better then the 0z run.

I've gotta say some of those GFS ensembles would be a total re-run of Feb 47, esp number 3 which just reloads easterly after easterly with LP's swinging westwards to our south...

However as per this morning, the set-up hangs very much in the balance, however tonight does see an improvement gotta be said.

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Posted
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk

As someone who has only been model watching this winter, it seems quite obvious that none of the models are copeing very well with this years weather t48+. Because of this, i see no real point discussing runs showing easterlys at t260, or even t144 due to just ending up getting dissapointed due to these never actually coming off. Those who say you can spot trends, im not so sure this is the case either, as these trends probably only materialise 10% of the time.

I think the strat temp thread and tech model thread give reasonable indications of likely northern blocking that may occur over the following few weeks, but as for detail, i would not trust any model output over 48hrs at the mo.

i know it seems im having a bit of a winge and the reason poeple get excited about fi charts is simply because this is a hobby, or more, as it is for me, i just think some people need to get a bit more realistic about fi, because i can tell you now that this easterly probably only has a 5% chance of actually happening (to the extent that people on here want anyway).

I will also be quite suprised if the northerly turns out to be as potent as some are suggesting!

Awaiting to get shot down here. (especially saying the above as a newbie!)

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Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

Some pretty impressive runs on the ensembles and some big change arounds as well compared to the 06z GFS, also pelased to see the 12z UKMO is light years better then the 0z run.

I've gotta say some of those GFS ensembles would be a total re-run of Feb 47, esp number 3 which just reloads easterly after easterly with LP's swinging westwards to our south...

However as per this morning, the set-up hangs very much in the balance, however tonight does see an improvement gotta be said.

Hopefully following the GFS ensembles, which were fantastic, it will be interesting to see what ECM 12z offers, after some very good model output tonight

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I have to admit I didn't think the 12z ensembles would show such a huge synoptic shift, however as I said in my last post this really is a 50-50 evolution still, but obviously the outcome IF it pulls off is a cold spell that in the south could even top off Jans cold spell, though obviously the north will have to go some for that to occur, esp for Scotland that never got any breakdown at xmas.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

as ever, ecm looking consistent up to T120 ......... this means the gulf shortwave is similar to the 00z run and nothing like as promising as the 12z ukmo. still, lets see what the next two frames to t168 bring us - odds are that they will look similar to the 00z but best not to second guess the run. looking forward to the NOAA comment later re the shortwave although by the time ukmo deepens it, its left the interest area of NOAA and so we are likely to be without comment re this.

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