Model Output Discussion

[Frosty.]

It shows how high the expectation levels have reached when a cold frosty high is greeted with huge disappointment, in recent winters those ecm 12z FI charts would have been celebrated with days of cold and frosty weather to look forward to. The upcoming Northerly looks like being a dud for inland areas with the wishbone effect bringing sunny spells and mainly dry conditions apart from a rogue wintry shower but northern, eastern and some western coasts should have a constant feed of wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow with the most disruptive snow probably in northern and eastern scotland and maybe northeast england.

[shiver]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html hmmmm ecm last in the stats over the last 6 days

[ChartViewer]

I think any Greenland high is probably quite some way away yet, the 12z ECM could evolve into that sort of set-up however I have a feeling looking at how a couple of very similar GFS ensemble members evolve, it'd develop somewhat differently to that and instead could easily evolve into a chunky Mid Atlatic high instead thanks to the PV still being a little too strong but who knows!

Kold,

There is no GH true....Its an AH growing North....We know what happens to that.....

People be careful as the synoptics are NOT that great

Regards

CV

[stewfox]

What are your thoughts on this northerly and which areas will be favoured for snow? Such as when you say coastal areas do you mean 10miles or less inland or 5miles inland as im around 6-8miles inland this is vital for me and other members in here

Snow prediction with 1/2 miles over to you JH or SM

Anway wonderful synoptics to ponder over

[Snowyowl9]

Kold,

There is no GH true....Its an AH growing North....We know what happens to that.....

People be careful as the synoptics are NOT that great

Regards

CV

It`s great if you don`t want atlantic wet though.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

This is alot better like.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2641.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn3001.png

[Snowstorm1]

Snow prediction with 1/2 miles over to you JH or SM

Anway wonderful synoptics to ponder over

Eh are you meaning to say the snow will be kept over my house if so i wouldnt mind....

Anyways Ecm isnt as bad as it sounds with plenty of frosts on offer BUT i dont think that will come off and the BEASTERLY will awake from its slumber but i dont think it will be like 47/63 but i believe it will have a significant impact on the uks infrastructure,

[Frosty.]

The JMA 12z looks rather progressive next week with not much sign of an easterly there

[January Snowstorm]

Well i dunno whether it's my natural psyche to disagree but I quite like the charts on show tonight

They all agree on major blocking taking hold in about 7 days time.Now whilst in FI we have seen during the last spell that model consistency is a very good guide.

Yes the ECM isn't showing dreamland but it aint bad either and a small nudge North by the high would quickly have us in deep cold.

I would be amazed if this forum isn't hopping in anticipation by tomorrow night

In the meantime potential there is for this weekend with ppn aplenty in an unstable flow.

[yamkin]

The following is from the 'TWO Forum' courtesy of Michael regarding the ECM......

The ECM (and some will call it clutching at straws I'm sure) but I have noticed that yesterday was the first time for a long time that the 6day verification had the ECM model behind all the other models (including NOGAPS!)

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html

Read into that what you wish - I'm off to see when that last happened.

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By the way, Steve Murr also thinks the latest ECM run is wrong......

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Edited January 27, 2010 by yamkin

[Richard Lake]

Well i dunno whether it's my natural psyche to disagree but I quite like the charts on show tonight

They all agree on major blocking taking hold in about 7 days time.Now whilst in FI we have seen during the last spell that model consistency is a very good guide.

Yes the ECM isn't showing dreamland but it aint bad either and a small nudge North by the high would quickly have us in deep cold.

I would be amazed if this forum isn't hopping in anticipation by tomorrow night

In the meantime potential there is for this weekend with ppn aplenty in an unstable flow.

Well the thing is yesterday all models showed an easterly so I think we have a right to be upset today given that evidence. I take it people are still paying attention to that shortwave over on the east coast of the americas as ppl including GP were saying that was pivotal to the 120-168 evolution.

By the way, Steve Murr also thinks the latest ECM run is wrong......

Yeah and GP was also joining in that debate so once more - patience is the key. But TBH I am fed up seeing 'the good stuff' appearing in what used to be last year called 'the reliable timeframe' - not materialising and constant switching by all the models. It was exciting at first, but now just a major annoyance.

Edited January 27, 2010 by rikki

[karyo]

I am not even looking at the potential for the easterly yet! At this range, so many things can go wrong so no point getting our hopes high.

The ECM is disappointing for the weekend's northerly as well! It has a straight northerly so the Scottish highlands will kill any precipitation, with the inland areas staying dry. Yesterday's ECM had several swings in the wind direction (nw to ne) which would benefit many more areas.

Karyo

Edited January 27, 2010 by karyo

[weather eater]

Amazing this thread, as soon as we see a cold evolution out jump one group of people, exclaiming the best runs since sliced bread etc etc. And the next day when the runs are not so good out jump another load of we told you so's, its all over, the jet this, zonal that, LPs crashing through etc etc. Why does it always have to be extremes, how about standing back having a good look at the model output over a few days and making a balanced judgement. A good winter is being spoiled on the model thread by people who have seen enough model output to know better, who should understand that synoptical patterns evolve over time they do not jump into existence on a model run and stay that way. Enjoy what we get from the northerly and except that although an easterly is likely, its not set in stone, and there’s a long way to go until we get a clear picture of how that might impact us. Forget the, I told you it would all go pear shaped posts and the looks like 47, 63, 79 or whatever posts. Its 2010 and still plenty of chopping and changing of model runs to go until we have a clear picture. And it might be worth some members remembering that its not wise to congratulate somebody on a forecast until it comes off. Premature back slapping just winds other people up and encourages negative posts in response.

Edited January 27, 2010 by weather eater

[yamkin]

Well the thing is yesterday all models showed an easterly so I think we have a right to be upset today given that evidence. I take it people are still paying attention to that shortwave over on the east coast of the americas as ppl including GP were saying that was pivotal to the 120-168 evolution.

Yeah and GP was also joining in that debate so once more - patience is the key. But TBH I am fed up seeing 'the good stuff' appearing in what used to be last year called 'the reliable timeframe' - not materialising and constant switching by all the models. It was exciting at first, but now just a major annoyance.

Since viewing models on the internet, the models seem to be finding it hard to get to grips with this winter which has been overall a lot colder than recent winters. I have found GFS starts the trend and the others take over where GFS started.

[Matt12]

The charts still look pretty good to me.<_<

IMO the problem is that people's expectations are unrealistically high. Many people talk about the upcoming spell (and synoptics) being similar to the winter of 47/63. However, whether you believe in man-made global warming or not, the fact remains - winters aren't as severe as they used to be (i.e. pre-1970s).

I always tend to find that the reality often ends up somewhere in the middle of what people forecast; that is, somewhere between a mild spell (often forecasted by frustrated people who insist that it will be spring-like weather by day x) and an armageddon-type situation, where the whole of the UK will be in chaos (overly optimistic snow-lovers).

Edited January 27, 2010 by Matt12

[weather eater]

Since viewing models on the internet, the models seem to be finding it hard to get to grips with this winter.

Nonsense I'm afraid yamkin though I don’t wish to sound rude, models struggle because climate is an ever changing dynamic mathematical puzzle, the models are no more struggling this year than at any other time, winter, summer, spring or autumn, this year, next year or last year. The trick is not to look for excuses why the models are not showing what you want, but to come back tomorrow and see how they have changed, forget the details post about 96hrs and look for the general trend.

[Richard Lake]

The charts still look pretty good to me.<_<

IMO the problem is that people's expectations are unrealistically high. Many people talk about the upcoming spell (and synoptics) being similar to the winter of 47/63. However, whether you believe in man-made global warming or not, the fact remains - winters aren't as severe as they used to be pre-1970s.

I always tend to find that the reality often ends up somewhere in the middle of what people forecast; that is, somewhere between a mild spell (often forecasted by frustrated people who insist that it will be spring-like weather by day x) and an armageddon-type situation, where the whole of the UK will be in chaos (overly optimistic snow-lovers).

Yeah I pretty much ignore the the 47/63 posts, but all this chaos in the models shows how crap they really are and highlights how they still can't accurately predict the weather with any certainty within the reliable timeframe. How can ALL the so-called reliable models be so collectively wrong at 6 days ahead?

Edited January 27, 2010 by rikki

[yamkin]

The charts still look pretty good to me.<_<

IMO the problem is that people's expectations are unrealistically high. Many people talk about the upcoming spell (and synoptics) being similar to the winter of 47/63. However, whether you believe in man-made global warming or not, the fact remains - winters aren't as severe as they used to be (i.e. pre-1970s).

I always tend to find that the reality often ends up somewhere in the middle of what people forecast; that is, somewhere between a mild spell (often forecasted by frustrated people who insist that it will be spring-like weather by day x) and an armageddon-type situation, where the whole of the UK will be in chaos (overly optimistic snow-lovers).

I agree, the charts still look good. When the charts showed 1947/62/63 synoptics yesterday, it was interesting to see. The trend for Easterlies is still there on the GFS 12Z in FI, and remember that GFS usually starts the trend.

[mcweather]

I think a little perspective is needed regarding the possible upcoming easterly.

The fact is that the real cold was not progged to arrive until the weekend after next anyway. This is entirely in keeping with tonights model output from both GFS and the ECM and also with the UKMO 6-15 day guidance. Tonights ECM may not quite be what it was yesterday but it is still very good and very much in line with building towards the GFS 12Z scenario post 240. I see no particular reason be downhearted for the longer term outlook regarding cold.

[Cloud 10]

http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdepd.html

Today's NOAA extended forecast goes for a mix of the gfs and ecm mean for the longer term.

I'm not sure what that means for the UK,but the 12z mean pressure chart at +240 looks good for an easterly.

Interesting that the full moon (30th of jan) gets a mention on those forecast discussions.

[yamkin]

Nonsense I'm afraid yamkin though I don’t wish to sound rude, models struggle because climate is an ever changing dynamic mathematical puzzle, the models are no more struggling this year than at any other time, winter, summer, spring or autumn, this year, next year or last year. The trick is not to look for excuses why the models are not showing what you want, but to come back tomorrow and see how they have changed, forget the details post about 96hrs and look for the general trend.

You forgot the rest of my post 'which has been overall a lot colder than recent winters. I have found GFS starts the trend and the others take over where GFS started'. I know the climate changes and models need to evolve around this, but this winter is a lot different to recent winters and ECM has really surprised many by falling behind at times where even the lesser models have been quite good. No excuses here, just how I see the model runs this winter.

[Ben_Cambs]

You forgot the rest of my post 'which has been overall a lot colder than recent winters. I have found GFS starts the trend and the others take over where GFS started'. I know the climate changes and models need to evolve around this, but this winter is a lot different to recent winters and ECM has really surprised many by falling behind at times where even the lesser models have been quite good. No excuses here, just how I see the model runs this winter.

I agree with you on this one, GFS was the first model to pick up the cold spell in Mid December, and that was in late NOVEMBER. ECM has shown a few breakdown scenarios this winter too, which have never actually happened. At times this winter ECM has stumbled and dragging behind the other models.

The outlook is very good IMO, I think some peoples expectations are too high after yesterdays models. The NAO and AO are forecast to go deep into negative territory, which affected our weather in the last cold spell

[weather eater]

You forgot the rest of my post 'which has been overall a lot colder than recent winters. I have found GFS starts the trend and the others take over where GFS started'. I know the climate changes and models need to evolve around this, but this winter is a lot different to recent winters and ECM has really surprised many by falling behind at times where even the lesser models have been quite good. No excuses here, just how I see the model runs this winter.

Didn’t forget it chap just didn’t feel it was necessary to comment on. The point is that the models just model climate they have no bias built in for recent winters, past winters or anything else. The ECM is a good model but prone to errors as all models are, the GFS just gets more daily stabs at getting it right. I've been model watching for 5/6 years now and the ECM is no worse this year than it was last. As for trends, swings and roundabouts in my book, but when it comes to verification ECM scores above the GFS, that’s a fact.

[bluearmy]

ok - time to bin the ops methinks beyond T144. NOAA cpc are never too far from the mark with their mean output charts. (especially with 80% confidence)

one word of warning - they may look fantastic but we are only just the right side of the lower thickness on average. not too much room for manoeuvre though a continental flow doesnt need low thickenesses to deliver the white stuff.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

[Matt12]

To be fair its not really been a severe winter, cold for an extended time with 3 inches of snow on and off is how winters in the UK should be annually. Its mainly because we haven't seen any reasonable amount of snow for a number of years.

Snowfall every year in the UK at our latitude is not too much to ask.

It's severe compared to other winters in my life time (i.e. from 1982). It's worth remembering that most places had a lot more than 3 inches. In any winter spell some areas will inevitably get less than others, but most areas (and the UK as a whole) had their worst sustained winter spell in 30 years.

[damianslaw]

Upstream signals strongly support a sustained bout of cold weather from about the end of next week, so I'm not too surprised that ECM is showing a westerly influence for a time early next week, favourable synoptics for delivering cold never have looked like materialising right at the start of Feb, its just been the northerly airstream has been upgraded slightly in longevity. NAO and AO look like going into significant negative territory around the 7th/8th Feb.

Given these signals, I am expecting northern blocking to be in full residence by the end of next week and an airstream from between North and East setting in, once in it will take some time to shift...