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Posted
  • Location: Crowle and Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Crowle and Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire

It's severe compared to other winters in my life time (i.e. from 1982). It's worth remembering that most places had a lot more than 3 inches. In any winter spell some areas will inevitably get less than others, but most areas (and the UK as a whole) had their worst sustained winter spell in 30 years.

This just highlights how bad the last 30 years have been more than anything else.

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Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

The AO forecast is expected to go well into negative, even more than the last cold spell:

post-10203-12646264989388_thumb.gif

post-10203-12646265071688_thumb.gif

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Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

Upstream signals strongly support a sustained bout of cold weather from about the end of next week, so I'm not too surprised that ECM is showing a westerly influence for a time early next week, favourable synoptics for delivering cold never have looked like materialising right at the start of Feb, its just been the northerly airstream has been upgraded slightly in longevity. NAO and AO look like going into significant negative territory around the 7th/8th Feb.

Given these signals, I am expecting northern blocking to be in full residence by the end of next week and an airstream from between North and East setting in, once in it will take some time to shift...

You are perfectly right there, the signals are there for a long prologned cold spell, especially a negative NAO and a very negative AO, which is forecast to fall below what it was in the last cold spell. Interesting times ahead IMO, and some models show an Easterly at T+240, it will take a few days to see the clearer picture though....

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Upstream signals strongly support a sustained bout of cold weather from about the end of next week, so I'm not too surprised that ECM is showing a westerly influence for a time early next week, favourable synoptics for delivering cold never have looked like materialising right at the start of Feb, its just been the northerly airstream has been upgraded slightly in longevity. NAO and AO look like going into significant negative territory around the 7th/8th Feb.

Given these signals, I am expecting northern blocking to be in full residence by the end of next week and an airstream from between North and East setting in, once in it will take some time to shift...

That's an excellent summing up of the situation Damianslaw. Sometimes it is better to look at the over arching picture and not be too influenced by individual model runs.

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Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

It's all gone quiet - 18z watching by any chance?

Im watching it, but as you would expect, very similar so far in the reliable timeframe. I think it is FI that people are looking for, especially with the current signals, probably starting around T+240

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Posted
  • Location: Dead Centre of the Vale of Clwyd
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Sancerre.
  • Location: Dead Centre of the Vale of Clwyd

I'll come back after my tea then (I know - off topic - waiting to be bumped again) whistling.gif

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Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

I'll come back after my tea then (I know - off topic - waiting to be bumped again) whistling.gif

Unfortuneatly Im going off now, I will see what happened overnight tomorrow, the feature on Sunday night now taking more of a South Easterly track through Wales and the South West/Southern Central England according to GFS 18z....

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

The great lack of interest in this thread is even more interesting than the synoptics??

I'm not worried as yet, still FI is only a couple of days away and nothing being shown is really mild.

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Posted
  • Location: Ware, Herts
  • Location: Ware, Herts

18z definately trending toward the ECM out to 108hrs (which is not good).

And how often does that happen? Quite often from what I've seen. It's not necessarily a bad thing, it's just one GFS run afterall and the ECM has been criticised on this thread a lot today.

The truth is that it appears more likely that after this northerly stint, milder air will arrive for an uncertain amount of time. The northern blocking is still there and so hope of an easterly remains.

The +144 of each model is subtly different to our northeast which is crucial for a later cold blast.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

18z downgrades the Northerly in reliable frame, with it toppling much quicker, HP to the West pushing across, falls in line with the ECM, not good at all. thats 3 out 4 models today showing agreement. That's why we should always stick to reliable time frame, looking into FI is like trying to catch your shadow.

Another brief cold snap, with snow for some. Monday onwards staying generally cold and dry.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

The great lack of interest in this thread is even more interesting than the synoptics??

I'm not worried as yet, still FI is only a couple of days away and nothing being shown is really mild.

It is mild by tuesday,and we are back to square one according to the 18z.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

The trend at 150hrs is looking good.

Euro high getting sucked up by big daddy from siberia

We should have dreamland 18z FI tonight!

Yes,i would expect the exciteometer to jump up a few notches in the next half hour. :p

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Posted
  • Location: Ware, Herts
  • Location: Ware, Herts

A monster high over Siberia by 168hrs, pressure upto 1060 :p

Only one winner from here!

Yea... not us according to the 18z.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-180.png?18

The 18z is painful for cold lovers. The high just cannot push far enough west and we're stuck under a southerly flow in between it and the Atlantic. Dull and miserable weather if it follows up. *reminds self to stop looking beyond 144* :p

Edited by Tommyd1258
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

A monster high over Siberia by 168hrs, pressure upto 1060 shok.gif

Only one winner from here!

There are no such things as monsters,hence FI la la land.Nothing to report sir.

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

poor run tonight looks like its starting to follow the ECM which is not realy surprising looking more and more likely next week will be quite mild and wet aggressive.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-204.png?18

Another run which takes a bit but gets there in the end. As others have said, people appear to be looking a bit too soon for an easterly to appear, when signals suggest it will take a bit of time to establish. The northerly looks a bit less potent and long lasting at the moment, with the shortwave never making it far enough west to either trigger an easterly or bring frontal snowfall across eastern Britain http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100127/18/111/h500slp.png

LS

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I think it's now likely we will get a milder period after this northerly but the signals do seem to be strong for an easterly later on into February. That doesn't mean that we will get one or that it'll be potent but I think something interesting is brewing. It's probably out of the reliable time frame of the models at the moment so expect it be firmed up on over the coming days.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

poor run tonight looks like its starting to follow the ECM which is not realy surprising looking more and more likely next week will be quite mild and wet aggressive.gif

I still can't see mild and wet. The closest it gets is this http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100127/18/180/h500slp.png but the block begins to win out 2 days later http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100127/18/216/h500slp.png. The teleconnections are not signalling mild and wet (not sustained anyway) and nor are the models really. Even ECM brings a mid-latitude high with cold, frosty weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I'd like to challenge the assertion made by someone earlier on that because AO is going negative that means the cold is coming, this is not entirely true - In my study of NAO and AO signals in the past, significant cold is caused by a -AO and -NAO. The forecast for future signals is not in that category. The forecast in terms of average ensemble suggests the whilst the AO will be negative the NAO (based on predictions) will be neutral, history tells us this is rarely favourable for sustained cold weather.

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