Model Output Discussion

[reef]

A new topic ready for the 00z runs.

The last one was full of bickering. As it gets busier it becomes increasingly difficult for the team to keep threads on track. Please help us by remaining on topic, not arguing and refraining from posting one-liners that add nothing to the discussion.

Thanks.

Old thread:

[Guest]

Looking ahead on the next lot of charts I can't see anything to get really excited about - yes we will have some cold days but not excessively so and there does not appear to be very much snow in the offing for Watford/London. Any that does fall is likely to be wet, or at least start thawing once we get towards midday, mainly because the low coming down next week down the North Sea from the north appears to put on its brakes and veer off the east leading us in a somewhat milder airstream.

On the other hand the weather does have a knack sometimes, despite our best forcasts and charts, of catching us completely on the hop and catching us out with an unexpected blizzard - I just wonder.

[Eugene]

So in summary nothing is yet certain until we get agreement from all the models and whats showing at +168 occurs at +72. However if this happens then the potential remains for one of the greatest cold spells of all time. This in my opinion is far more exciting than a N,ly bringing coastal snow showers!

Yes it would be far more exciting than this northerly though to be fair the second go at the northerly today is going to deliver some harsh frosts this weekend so not all bad, the consistency in the ensembles is amazing for a long cold spell so i am starting to believe February will become cold and blocked after the first 3 to 5 days, to be honest you can rely on HP taking over after the first few days of February its one of the most reliable things you can get in britain.

[Lewis]

Out too Sunday with the 00z, another slight upgrade on the N/N westerly. More precipitation about, the LP sinking south E coast of scotland a little further west. High pressure situated further west but still has it's habbit of trying to push in, i think this might not end up happening .

Looking a little better for Wales, West Mids etc. Scotland will do very well, parts of NE england will do pretty good also. Elsewhere, sunshine and snow showers, nothing prolonged/heavy away from the East Coast.

As i type, this northerly is starting to extend in timeframe.

I'm hitting the deck now.

Good Night

Could be a pretty disruptive snow event for Eastern england (East Yorkshire/N Lincs) and West Yorkshire in particular on tuesday.

Isotherm, 850's, dew and also the thickness ok.

this time i am going to bed.

night

[Eugene]

Yeah i hate the central heating on full whack, would rather be cold than have a very muggy atmosphere.

Very promising GFS 00Z with the potential for some heavy snow in central parts on tuesday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1082.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png

Very interesting battle between the atlantic and blocking to our east on GFS 00Z, looks great for stalling fronts giving snow to central areas to me.

I think the blocking will win, the atlantic looks sluggish.

lol i can imagine the doomsters getting the razors out over GFS 00Z as it doesnt deliver a potent easterly 850 hPa wise, the rest of us will be very happy with stalling fronts and very cold frosty nights over the snow cover once pressure goes high, excellent run overall

Edited January 29, 2010 by Coast

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Could you elaborate a bit more on the 00z run, I'm not that experienced enough with models, so is it a good run for the Easterly to make headway or not?

Edited January 29, 2010 by Blizzard_of_Oz

[Ben_Cambs]

Good chart from ECM at T+144

Edited January 29, 2010 by Snowman0697

[KTtom]

Rather a worrying sign emerging overnight for those hoping for the easterly. The Azores high fails to ridge north to link with the Siberian high on both the GFS and UKMO runs. ECM out to +144 and seems to be going along the same lines. GFS still manages to find the cold at +240 (again) due to a deep scandi trough, but the UKMO is horrendous at +144.

GFS op is out of kilt with its ensembles and pretty much on its own. I can see this running for a few days yet before the eventual outcome is agreed.

Much better ECM at +168 with hte sort of sypnotics that nearly brought the forum down the other day

Edited January 29, 2010 by KTtom

[cooling climate]

Strange GFS 0z operational run this morning but excellent agreement again in the

ensembles for a bitterly cold spell of weather to come.

Very poor UKMO but that is allowed to have a wobble now and again.

Very good run coming out now from the ECM and could very well turn into an

excellent run.

The orientation of the high to the northeast is far from nailed but at this range

I suppose you would not expect it to be.

ECM t192 chart is excellent.

I think Steve you would take this run.

Excellent.

Edited January 29, 2010 by cooling climate

[Frosty.]

Rather a worrying sign emerging overnight for those hoping for the easterly. The Azores high fails to ridge north to link with the Siberian high on both the GFS and UKMO runs. ECM out to +144 and seems to be going along the same lines. GFS still manages to find the cold at +240 (again) due to a deep scandi trough, but the UKMO is horrendous at +144.

GFS op is out of kilt with its ensembles and pretty much on its own. I can see this running for a few days yet before the eventual outcome is agreed.

Yes the ukmo 00z is horrific for all those waiting patiently for an Easterly to evolve but for mildies it will be a dream chart @ T+144, plenty of very cold weather before then though with fresh to strong Northerly winds, frequent snow showers around the coasts and some sneaking further inland at times, severe frosts and high windchill, as for FI, it always changes.

[Ben_Cambs]

I expect UKMO 12z later to be somewhat improved from the 0z, which is a very poor , while ECM 0z is excellent.

Edited January 29, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Frosty.]

I'm not liking the GFS 00z this morning, the evolution to the colder continental airmass looks ridiculous to me, relying on a low forming over iceland @ T+228 hours to act as the catalyst for pulling the colder air west. The gfs does keep things fairly cold next week though with only the far west of ireland, sw england and the western isles of scotland occasionally catching some milder air.

Edited January 29, 2010 by Frosty039

[cooling climate]

I wonder if there were ECM t264 and t288 charts on the ECM run just how cold would they be.

Looking on the Meteociel northern hemisphere charts that is one hell of a bitterly cold pool of

air being dragged out of Siberia with our name on it.

[winterof79]

Strange GFS 0z operational run this morning but excellent agreement again in the

ensembles for a bitterly cold spell of weather to come.

Very poor UKMO but that is allowed to have a wobble now and again.

Very good run coming out now from the ECM and could very well turn into an

excellent run.

The orientation of the high to the northeast is far from nailed but at this range

I suppose you would not expect it to be.

ECM t192 chart is excellent.

I think Steve you would take this run.

Excellent.

Morning CC,there seems also to be general agreement that Tuesday may be eventful.The meto have it as rain,preceeded by an interval of sleet and snow.Presumeably they expect more of a push from the atlantic than the 00z GFS is showing? Seems to me that this is the transition period.

[aspire27]

Is your "Beast From The East" here yet?

No. Not according to GFS! ECM looking better though.

[bluearmy]

to those of us who have seen an easterly evaporate at T96 before, the ukmo T144 is a dreadful chart. without a good UKMO T144 chart, few experienced posters will be happy.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I would say the ecm is on board and is an upgrade , but the gfs h lost the plot today , very supprising actualy , but im confident its just a wobble. It certainly looks wrong to me.

[cooling climate]

Just for fun this is a forcast which I think would be quite plausable based on the ECM run at 9 days (t216).

Snow showers for many areas with some more prolonged falls in the east, bitterly cold with maximum

daytime temperatures of -1 or -2c and feeling much colder in the bitter easterly wind with windchill of

-10c or lower, and the outlook staying bitterly cold with further heavy snowfall in many areas and

becoming much colder.

[Ben_Cambs]

To be fair UKMO only goes out to T+144, so people shouldnt get so downbeat about it. ECM was excellent this morning, and on the last chart there was a massive deep cold pool over Scandi heading our way. I expect UKMO 12z this afternoon to be much improved, and GFS 06z aswell, but it is acceptable that models do have the occassional wobble like they have this morning

[Iceberg]

I am experiences and I am happy !.

The UKMETO 144 is a single ops run at the furthest out the model goes. ECM ops is good, but more importantly the ENS and ECM EPS are both very strong cold signals still (coming closer in time range as well).

Easterlies have disappeared in the past (and on one very notable occasion) but when this happens what we saw was the ops runs continually showing the easterly while the ENS dropped away it's support. As yet this isn't the case and until the ENS/EPS does drop away support I am happy with things. (The GEFS 00Z shows a deeper mean cold than the the last run).

ECM has 850's of -14C across a chunk of England at 216Z, like CC says it would be absolutely bitter, 850's tend to be a little higher in an easterly so this would chill the willies off people, particularly in the East. Still that's enough long range detail as it will change next run.

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100129/00/t850Fife.png Ensembles still very nicely on board, as is Ian and Iceberg and most likely SM - ECM 00Z is the main thing http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-168.GIF?29-12

Lots of yellow to our north by +240 hours, with a very cold looking northeasterly flow http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-240.GIF?29-12

[Polar Continental]

Lol the same old song, the ECM jumps on board with the easterly and the GFS drops it.

The 0z ECM brings the easterly in at T192 or even at early as T120 if you count the north easterly on Wednesday. In fact the ECM is quite satisfactory this morning.

The 0z GFS to be quite honest looks like a dogs dinner today and decides not to bother with the easterly, instead brings in a cold southerly, followed by high pressure centred over England.

The UKMO decides to bring in the Atlantic with out any hesitation at T144.

The GEM starts off well with an early easterly at T168, then sinks the high over the UK, but brings the easterly back in FI.

I honestly don’t know what to think this morning.

[Weather-history]

GFS 0z op run may have wobbled over the easterly in FI but it has upped the snow potential for next week. Infact, it looks pretty snowy for some parts, if that came off.

[Snowyowl9]

No doubt ECM is the best run today GFS was on the warm side of the ensembles and sticks out on that.

Altough GEM shows another high wanting to join the Siberian high this is going to be the biggest block I`ve seen modeled there.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rgem1681.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rgem2161.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

Highs getting sucked up right left and centre.!!!

How cold the E-ly is still up for debate.

[Polar Continental]

GFS 0z op run may have wobbled over the easterly in FI but it has upped the snow potential for next week. Infact, it looks pretty snowy for some parts, if that came off.

Actually Mr Data has a point with the GFS, looking more closely, surface temperatures throughout most of the run are very cold indeed, despite the lack of easterly. I would gladly take that run, as messy as it is, snowy next week, plus a huge blizzard in FI, but all wishful thinking really, I have never seen a chart like the one shown at T240!!

Edited January 29, 2010 by Polar Continental