Model Output Discussion

[MR EXTREMES]

Seeing as I F is a professional, one would be wisely considered to pay attention him over say you or many of us on here???

BFTP

i agree with that he is pro as is john h gp yourself and TWS and many others,

thats why its always ideal to put together all of your thoughts into one and come to your own conclusion the met office aswell seem very confident i know ive said this many times and although they have there fults they are also pros with the tec to read futher ahead.

every model in the last 7 to 10 days has been throwing up the beast and every model has also had a wobble.

something upstream is causing confusion im still confident it will happen how cold is the question maybe not as cold as december jan but cold enough to get below cet.

[weather eater]

I see a lot of agenda driven posts on here this morning, a lot of confusing model output that makes it easy to jump on which ever model shows the right outcome for a predetermined agenda. No easterly, jump on the UKMO bandwagon, yes to the easterly, jump on the ECM or the GEM. Fact, be cautious of any model output, it matters not whether models are sticking to their guns, since when did that make them infallible. The progged easterly has not shifted back, anyone who thinks it has, go back and look again, it comes together between the 6th and the 8th. I don’t have an agenda so all I see is pretty bog standard modelling problems past the 120 to 144hr mark, no different from any day of the week. So I would advise trying to look without a pre conceived agenda at what might happen and try and weigh up the situation from the board range of tools available. My view is that their is still plenty of support across the models for some sort of easterly regime effecting the UK to what degree that effects us, if at all, is still open to much revision.

[The Weather Dragon]

What about UKMO 120hr though?

Its not as if, it is semi blocked at 120hr and then the Atlantic crashes through at 144hrs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

The Atlantic is breaking through at 120hrs or more correctly before this and to me that weakens your point. :lol:

Anything could happen after the 96-120 hour period - the atlantic may not nessecarily 'Crash through' as I said before we need to see some cross model agreement around the 120-144 timeframe.

[Duane S.]

Not much time, but has anyone been able to save the 18z run, it is 'daft' but greta to look at...even Dickens era wouldn't have handled that!!!! Can anyone save it???? Or tell me how.

BFTP

Here you go Fred...

I've got the incredible 850 charts as well and as soon as I convert from bitmaps I'll post 'em.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Here is an unexpected twist, the ECM ensembles.

http://www.knmi.nl/e...E_06260_NWT.png

Absolutely miles warmer than the mean.

Maybe the right attitude at the moment is to assume no model is correct. I've been in these situations before where it could go either way.

Well given that beyond even 24 hours all models are in some detail wrong then that does appear to be wise advice, especially with no real cross model support. Those ensembles posted do give me some hope though, as the ECM ensembles are usually regarded as a pretty decent marker. If the 6Z GFS backs down then perhaps it is almost time to throw in the towel, but even then it could all shift back again by the 12Z or tomorrow!

LS

[TEITS]

However regardless of the blocking signal we need to see the models move away from the UKMO this evening, we have to have the UKMO on side by tonight otherwise the route to an easterly will become extremely difficult and may well not happen at all.

I was amazed when I viewed the ECM ensembles.

I fully agree about tonight though and feel the 12Zs will be the all important runs. The uncertainity is quiet incredible because based on the UKMO/ECM ensembles, tonights 12Zs could either show a mild SW,ly or a bitterly cold E,ly.

[Methuselah]

Please continue here: