Model Output Discussion

[stewfox]

The easterly suddenly does look a lot more fragile again, I remember the very cold runs for mid Feb last year got un-done by something very similar to what the UKMO is prediciting. However there is a huge signal for blocking to develop around the Greenland region onthe models, that sort of large signal is not the type that should be ignored and more ofen then not it'll come off in one form or another its just the exacts that are uncertain.

What I said yesterday still stands, the milder air IMO will get across most of Britian however cold air is going to win out making any milder blip just that, a milder blip!

When was the easterly nailed or within a reliable time frame ?

Its been a hope cast for some weeks to suggest its more fragile again is silly.

Edited January 29, 2010 by stewfox

[kold weather]

Not really hopecasting Stexfox, we've come very close several times to a decent easterly in the last 2 weeks, twice now we've been right on the western edge of a very cold flow, we very briefly actually saw it earlier this week but as I said we've been right on the cusp of a very prolonged spell but the Atlantic just been a little too strong...so we've been right in the middle, much akin to late Jan 91 in many ways where the upper high was massive but the Atlantic prevented the much colder stuff to come back westwards to any major degree until early-mid Feb.

As for the easterly, no of course it weren't ever in 'reliable time' BUT there has been huge agreement beforehand and there WILL be a big ESe/E flow across a massive part of Europe, so its hardly a hopecast, it wouldn't take much at all to get that easterly, however we shall see, its very 50-50.

Also FWIW, I've been saying for days any easterly flow is 50-50 and thats still my view today as well.

[cooling climate]

Well I for one am expecting to see some cracking charts this afternoon and certainly

by the end of this weekend period when there should finally be model agreement

on the evolution to the easterly by next weekend.

I think the idea that the block then retrogrades across towards Greenland is the

correct one myself and it is one that will bring the coldest weather with it.

[Optimus Prime]

There is an awful lot of hopecasting going on over the last few days. Picking and choosing charts that are cold.

There does seem to be some agreement at some sort of Easterly. But 70-30 against for an easterly lasting several days and being very cold in the next week or so from what I see.

It will remain cold though.

Edited January 29, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[MR EXTREMES]

A good point Stew BUT...this winter has not done as the Nino has told it...and why should it now? I think a shot close to Dec set up is very much on the cards, if not more robust longterm.

BFTP

This reads like the ECM 00Z is showing, very good.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 3 Feb 2010 to Friday 12 Feb 2010:

Generally cold with overnight frost and ice through much of the period, but a good deal of dry and bright weather for many parts of the UK by day. However, cloud and rain, and some hill snow is likely to affect many central parts at first on Wednesday, but it should become mostly dry later on Wednesday and during Thursday. Wintry showers near the east coast are likely to spread further inland towards the end of the week as winds become more easterly. The mainly dry weather with some frost and ice, is likely to continue for much of the rest of the period, with temperatures mostly below normal. However, wintry showers or more persistent sleet or snow could affect eastern and southern areas later in the period.

Updated: 1213 on Fri 29 Jan 2010

id also like to add this is the same forecast they issued for 3 days now and this would suggest there confidence is growing on cold weather beyond this weekend.

and to be honest the models have been suggesting this for sometime aswell apart from the odd wobble but then what do you expect in fi.

but its looking good and the nest couple of days we are likely to see some eye candy but also more wobbles things are never 100% until 36 to 48 hours before the event and even then snowfall can be as little as hours lol.

and i agree the nino has not had an effect at all overall this winter also i herd nino had weakened recently.

[mountain shadow]

I think it's from this point that anything can happen....Fantastic Atlantic V Block battle.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think it's from this point that anything can happen....Fantastic Atlantic V Block battle.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png

Yes MS, that is a better set up than the 06z and at this stage heads towards the ECM 00z. That SW west of Norway is far less a feature, if at all. Very good development

BFTP

[loophole]

Dare i say...GFS 144 looks quite ECM like

[mountain shadow]

Trough energy could easily undercut from here...

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100129/12/132/h500slp.png

[January Snowstorm]

Bang on queue from what GP said earlier, the Siberian high is trending West towards Greenland.

That man is a genius!

[winter watcher]

The easterly suddenly does look a lot more fragile again, I remember the very cold runs for mid Feb last year got un-done by something very similar to what the UKMO is prediciting. However there is a huge signal for blocking to develop around the Greenland region onthe models, that sort of large signal is not the type that should be ignored and more ofen then not it'll come off in one form or another its just the exacts that are uncertain.

What I said yesterday still stands, the milder air IMO will get across most of Britian however cold air is going to win out making any milder blip just that, a milder blip!

I don't think its the easterly that's looking fragile Kold. I actually think the reason for such differences in the models is simply because the amount off blocking that is happening and going to happen over the next few days. Also other factors to bring in to the frame is where is the hp going to position itself. Lots off factors to come together over the next few days and i for one believe the models are struggling to programme everything i mean when have was the last time we seen this amount off blocking developing? I would not be surprised to see the easterly to disappear and reappear within 24-48 hours.

[Lewis]

12z goes with the 06z, looks like the transformation to how we end up with easterly is over..

I honestly cannot see the Easterly Happening, we are no closer in time frame, its put further back all the time. It's just going round in circles. I expect the 12z at the end of the run to show mild conditions with no Easterly inversion.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think we arte starting to see the beginning of the correction with action further west and jet energy to transfer south. I wouldn't be surprised to see further west correction with Atlantic/arctic holding more firmly over the next day or two's runs.

BFTP

Edited January 29, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[kold weather]

12z looking ok out to 144hrs, obviously now it seems we are going to need more then one bite of the cherry to drag the colder stuff westwards but then again as I said earlier Jan 91-Feb 91 took 3-4 bites before obviously a huge cold pool got dragged westwards, this set-up also allows 2-3 days of somewhat milder air to get into our neck of the woods (though not that much above normal saying all that!)

[nick sussex]

Although we might eventually get to the easterly the route there is a complete mess with no agreement past 96hrs, so i'd happily bin all the output past this stage and wait for the models to agree on the way forward.

[mountain shadow]

I think we arte starting to see the beginning of the correction with action further west and jet energy to transfer south. I wouldn't be surprised to see further west correction with Atlantic/arctic holding more firmly over the next day or two.

BFTP

Have to agree. For a chart which is six days away, a shift of everything 250 miles west makes a hell of a difference which at that time frame isn't much.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100129/12/144/h500slp.png

[Bobby]

UKMO +144

Hmmmm.

Any easterly remains deep in FI.

[kold weather]

Any easterly is indeed still a long way away, as others have said any hope of the first bite being good enough is pretty much gone IMO however we should all be well aware that the global teleconnections strongly favour northern blocking and if we have a block over to our west then odds are its going to transfer westwards simply because thats where will become more favourable for such blocking to occur by mid month.

ps, 12z GFS has the EXACT same evolution into cold as Feb 91 in terms of broad synoptics.

[January Snowstorm]

At 216hrs the real shebang is knocking on the door!

[Southender]

Bingo.

That date (8th Feb) again.

[bluearmy]

Two consec UKMO's - both less promising by T144 and trending that way at T120. now do we ignore that, given the optimistic tones of the meto 15 dayer this morning. on both occasions the T144 isnt a 'dead duck' and the blocking is still there to push back, but at what point do the shortwaves stop coming, or better still, start to head south and undercut ???

[mountain shadow]

At least the models consistently show the jam tomorrow.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100129/12/240/h850t850eu.png

I think we are 75% on an easterly within the next ten to fourteen days.

[Iceberg]

I think what we saw in the models before was the easterly short cut route, due to the lack of Atlantic energy a surface high was able to develop before, this was in effect an extra snout on the retrogressing Siberian high. This scenario has well and truely been done away with now IMO

ECM started showing a few extra shortwaves due to the extra atlantic energy a few runs ago, I fully admit I was wrong when I said this would not occur.

However the main track of a retrogressing Siberian high first into Scandy, then Iceland, then greenland, then Canada, taking all before it is still there.

Make no mistake this is a massive 1068mb high that's being forecasted and nothing short of a 200kt Jet stream would even halt it and thats a million miles away.

GFS gets there in the end as I am sure the rest will do.

[mountain shadow]

UKMO +144

Hmmmm.

Any easterly remains deep in FI.

Problem is the meteociel charts don't show the bigger picture. The view from the pole would be much better.

[Duncan McAlister]

This easterly is still in FI but hasn't really been pushed back, now close to being in the hi-res part of the run. Several days ago I think it was post +300?