Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Imp81]

Thanks G.S.L hopefully things will go our way for a change always seems that north of the Humber and south of the wash do well so fingers and toes crossed that the low sticks on or close to where its running based on the fax chart as from what i can gather from my amateurish understanding theres an area of colder air/front clipping us and other parts of the east which with the low running as based on UKMO would likely cause more wintry precipitation as i'm fed up already of seeing sleety drizzle and seeing the odd solitary decent flake mixed in it just rubs in what might have been

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Thanks G.S.L hopefully things will go our way for a change always seems that north of the Humber and south of the wash do well so fingers and toes crossed that the low sticks on or close to where its running based on the fax chart as from what i can gather from my amateurish understanding theres an area of colder air/front clipping us and other parts of the east which with the low running as based on UKMO would likely cause more wintry precipitation as i'm fed up already of seeing sleety drizzle and seeing the odd solitary decent flake mixed in it just rubs in what might have been

Really hope your amateurish understanding is right as a good snow fall would just finish the winter off nicely. Just hope the roads remain clear as I'm off the Wakefield on Tuesday to get the car fixed. (Thats if we actually manage to get the snow in the first place!)

[Craigers]

if temps drop and dews in next 2 hours then there could be a few snow showers tonight!

[Imp81]

Just go sit up In Caistor its a sure bet for snow if any is to happen for our part of the world G.S.L, the impression i get from following the model threads and trying to grasp the complexities is that it may snow and we may get a decent covering however likely to be slushy on roads as it may well fall on already wet ground, so maybe you'll be safe, but snows snow in my eyes and fingers crossed the ideal evolution of cold air coming down behind it from the N/NE and the cold pool will follow, this weather malarkey is strangely addictive

[reef]

As it stands Id be very suprised if we see much more than rain or sleet around here. Temperatures are extremely marginal.

Starting on Monday when the first band arrives from the North west, 850hPa temperature are around -3C, 500-1000hPa thicknesses are 530DAM, 850-1000hPA thicknesses are 1305DAM, Wet bulb is 4-6C, dewpoint is around 3C and the zero degree isotherm is at 800metres. All of these say rain.

After this we enter a bright and showery flow, but even then temperatures are extremely marginal and would give a wintry mix at best, even then only really on Tuesday as the colder air is slowly mixed out.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

As it stands Id be very suprised if we see much more than rain or sleet around here. Temperatures are extremely marginal.

Starting on Monday when the first band arrives from the North west, 850hPa temperature are around -3C, 500-1000hPa thicknesses are 530DAM, 850-1000hPA thicknesses are 1305DAM, Wet bulb is 4-6C, dewpoint is around 3C and the zero degree isotherm is at 800metres. All of these say rain.

After this we enter a bright and showery flow, but even then temperatures are extremely marginal and would give a wintry mix at best, even then only really on Tuesday as the colder air is slowly mixed out.

Thanks Reef, just goes to show how difficult it is to get low level snow. Your knowledge is much appreciated. I guess the saying "It is cold enough for snow" is nto entirely true.

[Cheese Rice]

Snow Forecast for next week-

Monday- Starting of on a wet note, around 9am a band of rain sleet and snow will push south, the precipitation will start of as rain and rapidly turn to snow throughout late morning as the cold air undercuts the front. By afternoon most inland areas will see snow, the closer to the coast you are the more likely you will see rain or a wintry mixture. The snow may be heavy at times with light-moderate accumulations in places, around 1-3cm for low ground and 3-5cm for high ground (150m+), pennines are likely to see relatively deep snow 10cm+. The band of sleet and snow will move slowly south-wards during the afternoon leaving all areas dry by Evening.

Warning map

Red- Pennines, Accumulations of 10cm+ possible, mostly on the hills.

Purple- 1-3cm for Low ground and 3-5cm for high ground (150m+)

Yellow- 0-1cm of snow, a wintry mixture of rain and sleet, temporary accumulations of 1cm possible.

Tuesday- Wintry showers for all areas with snow over high ground, showers merging together to give longer spells of sleet or snow. Temporary accumulations of 1-2cm likely for inland areas, closer to the coast mostly rain and sleet with snow at times, however there is in an increased likely hood of snow near the coast compared to Monday.

Red- Pennines, Accumulations of 3-5cm likely

Purple- 1-2cm for low ground, 2-3cm for high ground

Yellow- Rain sleet and snow, temporary accumulations possible at times

Update: Changed Tuesday forecast for pennines, 3-5cm possible, original forecast 2-3cm.

Edited February 13, 2010 by 10123

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Just go sit up In Caistor its a sure bet for snow if any is to happen for our part of the world G.S.L, the impression i get from following the model threads and trying to grasp the complexities is that it may snow and we may get a decent covering however likely to be slushy on roads as it may well fall on already wet ground, so maybe you'll be safe, but snows snow in my eyes and fingers crossed the ideal evolution of cold air coming down behind it from the N/NE and the cold pool will follow, this weather malarkey is strangely addictive

I often have a drive around there when we miss out. Last February wasa diferent world. They had a decent covering when nearer home was nothing. Might just do that again this week.

Snow Forecast for next week-

Monday- Starting of on a wet note, around 9am a band of rain sleet and snow will push south, the precipitation will start of as rain and rapidly turn to snow throughout late morning as the cold air undercuts the front. By afternoon most inland areas will see snow, the closer to the coast you are the more likely you will see rain or a wintry mixture. The snow may be heavy at times with light-moderate accumulations in places, around 1-3cm for low ground and 3-5cm for high ground (150m+), pennines are likely to see relatively deep snow 10cm+. The band of sleet and snow will move slowly south-wards during the afternoon leaving all areas by Evening.

Warning map

Red- Pennines, Accumulations of 10cm+ possible, mostly on the hills.

Purple- 1-3cm for Low ground and 3-5cm for high ground (150m+)

Yellow- 0-1cm of snow, a wintry mixture of rain and sleet, temporary accumulations of 1cm possible.

Tuesday- Wintry showers for all areas with snow over high ground, showers merging together to give longer spells of sleet or snow. Temporary accumulations of 1-2cm likely for inland areas, closer to the coast mostly rain and sleet with snow at times, however there is in an increased likely hood of snow near the coast compared to Monday.

Thanks for the forecast mate, disappointed for IMBY prospects, but your predictions are probably very much on the ball. Time will tell. Good luck for snow your end buddy.

[Cheese Rice]

Thanks for the forecast mate, disappointed for IMBY prospects, but your predictions are probably very much on the ball. Time will tell. Good luck for snow your end buddy.

Thanks mate, I'm fairly confident that we will see a north easterly blast at the end of the month which would provide plenty of snow for all areas, a cold March is looking likely too, so if you miss out next week you will make up for it.

Edited February 13, 2010 by 10123

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Thanks mate, I'm fairly confident that we will see a north easterly blast at the end of the month which would provide plenty of snow for all areas, a cold March is looking likely too, so if you miss out next week you will make up for it.

Really hope your right. We have had at least two good falls here during march over the past few years. The last being Easter 2008 when we had over 4 inch. That was a really strange day as all the snow had melted and dried up by lunchtime that same day!

[Cheese Rice]

Really hope your right. We have had at least two good falls here during march over the past few years. The last being Easter 2008 when we had over 4 inch. That was a really strange day as all the snow had melted and dried up by lunchtime that same day!

Yeah same happened here, 8 inches on snow fell only to melt in 2 hours, then the next day another 8 inches fell only to melt in 1 hour.

[Imp81]

Maybe we ought to have an en mass drive to the west of sheffield as i mistakenly did post xmas despite no forewarnings on M1 it was a bit interesting to say the least, it seems that theres uncertainty still on exact path of the low giving the precipitation and where may see snow so i'm, tho maybe folornly hoping there could be be some further developments to increase our chances as it seems in recent weeks the charts/models etc are having great difficulty in working out exact specifics, probably a hopecast but maybe there could be something decent following on in the wake of the northern low

[Sammy21]

the wind is changing direction but why cannot it still drag from the north as it colder.

Edited February 13, 2010 by Sammy21

[johnholmes]

Why cant the wind still blow down instead of upwards all the cold moving away but the mild coming back again typical I hope the wind not keeping as the south got few months of feb yet:) but yet again there is some time it can change.

Sammy can I ask a favour please?

Please look at what you are thinking of posting before you post. That last post makes little sense really-we probably can guess at what you mean but would it not be better to actually print what you probably thought?

Sorry if I sound pedantic but to an old fella like me it makes reading and understanding anyones' posts so much easier.

thanks

Edited February 13, 2010 by johnholmes

[Sammy21]

sorry

[Lewis]

Sammy can I ask a favour please?

Please look at what you are thinking of posting before you post. That last post makes little sense really-we probably can guess at what you mean but would it not be better to actually print what you probably thought?

Sorry if I sound pedantic but to an old fella like me it makes reading and understanding anyones' posts so much easier.

thanks

In all fairness John sammy is a new member and is still learning, i grant you she may be picking up bad habbits off other posters (like me at times), but she'll come good.

Anyhow regarding snow potential for the early part of next Week (tuesday/wednesday) it's looking interesting.

Areas (even right next to/on the coast may see snow)

Favoured areas East Yorkshire, NW/N Lincs. Pennine areas, N Yorkshire and Central N england.

0C isotherm is 0-100m's on Tuesday and then Wednesday. Dew points 0.5c to -1. Upper 850's -5 to -6 (-7) in places. Thickness is ok. The isotherm in a setup like this is key, with the wind's coming from the W/SW these parts won't get any upper mixing off the North Sea, and along with a perfect to very low isotherm (with supportive uppers) the snow particles (flakes) stand a chance of getting to the surface before melting. Will it settle? well let's wait and see

So going by the 18z run, snow for the whole region at some point next week, although tuesday does look better than wednesday.

G night folks

lewis

Edited February 13, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

In all fairness John sammy is a new member and is still learning, i grant you she may be picking up bad habbits off other posters (like me at times), but she'll come good.

Anyhow regarding snow potential for the early part of next Week (tuesday/wednesday) it's looking interesting.

Areas (even right next to/on the coast may see snow)

Favoured areas East Yorkshire, NW/N Lincs. Pennine areas, N Yorkshire and Central N england.

0C isotherm is 0-100m's on Tuesday and then Wednesday. Dew points 0.5c to -1. Upper 850's -5 to -6 (-7) in places. Thickness is ok. The isotherm in a setup like this is key, with the wind's coming from the W/SW these parts won't get any upper mixing off the North Sea, and along with a perfect to very low isotherm (with supportive uppers) the snow particles (flakes) stand a chance of getting to the surface before melting. Will it settle? well let's wait and see

So going by the 18z run, snow for the whole region at some point next week, although tuesday does look better than wednesday.

G night folks

lewis

Thanks for the detailed input Lewis, much appreciated. Good win for you last night. Hope waki beats the champs tomorrow.

Edited February 13, 2010 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[galba]

Maybe we ought to have an en mass drive to the west of sheffield as i mistakenly did post xmas despite no forewarnings on M1 it was a bit interesting to say the least,8<...

January was 'interesting' to the west of Sheffield. We had to get a local farmer to dig us out with his JCB and one of the piles of snow he left is still a couple of feet high today.

I'd like 10123 to be correct with his forecast - hopefully it will be confirmed on the Countryfile forecast tomorrow.

[Lewis]

Thanks for the detailed input Lewis, much appreciated. Good win for you last night. Hope waki beats the champs tomorrow.

No problem GSL

Wakefield have had a good start, good luck against Leeds tomorrow.

I was the huddersfield game last night, our defence was amazing!

Come on you hull

[reef]

In all fairness John sammy is a new member and is still learning, i grant you she may be picking up bad habbits off other posters (like me at times), but she'll come good.

Anyhow regarding snow potential for the early part of next Week (tuesday/wednesday) it's looking interesting.

Areas (even right next to/on the coast may see snow)

Favoured areas East Yorkshire, NW/N Lincs. Pennine areas, N Yorkshire and Central N england.

0C isotherm is 0-100m's on Tuesday and then Wednesday. Dew points 0.5c to -1. Upper 850's -5 to -6 (-7) in places. Thickness is ok. The isotherm in a setup like this is key, with the wind's coming from the W/SW these parts won't get any upper mixing off the North Sea, and along with a perfect to very low isotherm (with supportive uppers) the snow particles (flakes) stand a chance of getting to the surface before melting. Will it settle? well let's wait and see

So going by the 18z run, snow for the whole region at some point next week, although tuesday does look better than wednesday.

G night folks

lewis

Im not sure 'she' will, as the poster is male!

A much better 18z compared to the 12z (quite different in fact), however in a westerly flow Id be more concerned about any showers actually making it across to here before worrying whether rain, sleet or snow falls! It could end up just being bright with broken cloud.

Still small changes which make a massive difference in this scenario to come I think. 12z had the freezing level at 800m, compared to 200m on the 12z, a huge difference and only 36-48 hours out.