Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 21:

[Methuselah]

Please carry on...

Previous:

[Ross B]

All this talk of an easterly... I'd rather have a good polar North-Westerly. Not had a decent one for years now!

[LadyPakal]

You can see the snowfall in the N & NE Scotland & east coast of England in this image: http://saturn.unibe.ch/rsbern/noaa/dw/realtime/current/n1bcurr.jpg

Oh, and remember that interesting swirl off Norway last night? http://www.knmi.nl/data/satrep/archive/KNMI/satrep.2010013000.html

Edited January 30, 2010 by LadyPakal

[Methuselah]

All this talk of an easterly... I'd rather have a good polar North-Westerly. Not had a decent one for years now!

Me too, Ross...Dry and sunny the now!

[Snowplough33]

The 2 week outlook from MO goes with cold (updated Saturday lunchtime) . The details dont really matter I guess, but the general trend is cold.......all good signs.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Snowplough33

[Stuart]

dry and sunny here to

[GraemeB]

A couple of nice pictures

The fax for tomorrow looks interesting (I think)...and the chart for Friday from GFS morning run...

Interesting week ahead - but I'm staying away from the model thread - last time I dipped in, I singed my fingers and my PC screamed for help.

[Gilly]

A couple of nice pictures :o

The fax for tomorrow looks interesting (I think)...and the chart for Friday from GFS morning run...

Interesting week ahead - but I'm staying away from the model thread - last time I dipped in, I singed my fingers and my PC screamed for help. :o

Very nice Fax chart GraemeB.......:blink:

[Methuselah]

The wind's backing NWerly...Hopefully a good sign for this evening???

:blink: :o

[Snooz]

Nice charts GraemeB!

Quiet sunny morning here with a nice deep covering.

Yes Pete, I think it's looking good for you & Gilly et al for this evening/tomorrow morning Good Luck!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Jeez, the model thread has just been locked due to a hideous off-topic and personal argument which broke out for no apparent reason. This is the first time I've ever seen the thread moving towards actual unpleasantness, so I think I'll just stick mainly to the much friendly and more useful thread here. We can discuss the model output with more relevance an without any pointless bickering or heated arguments

Speaking of which, the 12Zs are going to be pretty interesting tonight! Fingers crossed they back the GFS - -10 uppers with an easterly wind for next weekend http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100130/06/144/h850t850eu.png

Maybe not -18 uppers but surely still to your liking Catch?

LS

[Sunny Leith]

Nice fax indeed. But way way too frustrating !

Look at the ingredients. Cold. Low pressure everywhere. Fronts. Troughs scattered about. Wind from the north. Scotland is a small blob by comparison.

And yet ... most likely end result will be for snow only in the exposed and mountainous areas. Good luck to those who get it but for 75%+ of the landmass of Scotland its a no-snow-show day on the cards. That my whinging moany NIMBY post out the way for today !

In saying that, cold blue-skied days like today are great to be out in so its all good.

A couple of nice pictures

The fax for tomorrow looks interesting (I think)...and the chart for Friday from GFS morning run...

Interesting week ahead - but I'm staying away from the model thread - last time I dipped in, I singed my fingers and my PC screamed for help.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Nice fax indeed. But way way too frustrating !

Look at the ingredients. Cold. Low pressure everywhere. Fronts. Troughs scattered about. Wind from the north. Scotland is a small blob by comparison.

And yet ... most likely end result will be for snow only in the exposed and mountainous areas. Good luck to those who get it but for 75%+ of the landmass of Scotland its a no-snow-show day on the cards. That my whinging moany NIMBY post out the way for today !

In saying that, cold blue-skied days like today are great to be out in so its all good.

Just returned to find the meto have generally upgraded, even using the world 'east' in relation to winds. Sounds promising as usually when they say 'cold, with a few wintery showers' (through clenched teeth), it actually means baltic with widespread snow; given their GW bias, they do find it hard to say the 's' word.

LSS thanks as usual for the chart contris etc.

As for the model thread; think that's been brewing for a while. With an E'rly in FI for so long, people are seriously loosing the rag. Grown adults?

[Hairy Celt]

Just been out for a short walk and got caught in one of these piercing snow showers blown in on the northerly. Cripes. Nice though. Back to the kitchen and the footy on the radio now; doesn't look too likely that we'll see much snow here over the next few days, although I said this yesterday and we got a mini-dumping in the evening.

What is it with folk on the model thread?

[Gilly]

Nice fax indeed. But way way too frustrating !

Look at the ingredients. Cold. Low pressure everywhere. Fronts. Troughs scattered about. Wind from the north. Scotland is a small blob by comparison.

And yet ... most likely end result will be for snow only in the exposed and mountainous areas. Good luck to those who get it but for 75%+ of the landmass of Scotland its a no-snow-show day on the cards. That my whinging moany NIMBY post out the way for today !

In saying that, cold blue-skied days like today are great to be out in so its all good.

I'm gutted.......was hopeful of a few inches of the white stuff!!

[Snooz]

Clouding over here now already, what's it like up North Pete, Gilly, NL?

>>Model thread

don't like to keep mentioning it, but that was a new form of low - I'm thinking it was no more than frustration and a slack "no mans land" between doubtful runs (re the E'ly) which let the trolls in and unfortunately caught some unawares.. needless to say I have 2 more trolls members on my ignore list

PS: I think I now see a snow shower just over to my West and yea Huntly traffic cam is showing it too

PPS: thanks as usual LS, appreciate reading your summaries, & looking forward to this evenings round ups

[Gilly]

Any views on the new system Radar V5 - Beta 1??

I must admit it took a short while to get used to it.........but I think I like it.

Clouding over here now already, what's it like up North Pete, Gilly, NL?

>>Model thread

don't like to keep mentioning it, but that was a new form of low - I'm thinking it was no more than frustration and a slack "no mans land" between doubtful runs (re the E'ly) which let the trolls in and unfortunately caught some unawares.. needless to say I have 2 more trolls members on my ignore list

PS: I think I now see a snow shower just over to my West and yea Huntly traffic cam is showing it too

PPS: thanks as usual LS, appreciate reading your summaries, & looking forward to this evenings round ups

Hi Snooz, we had about three inches of snow yesterday evening between 7pm and 10pm then it froze.........nothing since.

Turning cloudy here now and temps 0C and DP -1C

There may be a few light showers but you never know overnight we may strike lucky!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Pram and toy thread hardly gets going again and already some bickering going on; 'stupid' posts and 'delete please mods'. Tsk tsk.

Found one sensible comment from LSS:

My, my, what a run from the GFS! Surely the UKMO will fall into line, surely!

Whom I imagine will update us all at some point soon.

[Snowplough33]

Have to say the 12z is an absolute screamer...........very pleasant to look at but UKMO is nowhere near this. ????? Again even if it changes.........great for now, so lets hope!!

Edited January 30, 2010 by Snowplough33

[LomondSnowstorm]

Pram and toy thread hardly gets going again and already some bickering going on; 'stupid' posts and 'delete please mods'. Tsk tsk.

Found one sensible comment from LSS:

My, my, what a run from the GFS! Surely the UKMO will fall into line, surely!

Whom I imagine will update us all at some point soon.

And yet it doesn't fall into line!! The drama continues! One of them is going to look incredibly stupid surely. The GFS is a corker, with the -5 uppers not leaving the east coast from 72 hours onwards and the -10 line just sits across eastern Scotland from Friday night onwards http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100130/12/156/h850t850eu.png.

I sense a little bit of IMBY posting on the thread coming up due to the slightly less cold uppers further south, but for southern,eastern and central Scotland that run is about as good as it gets really - perhaps not extremely cold uppers, but with pressure lower and a bit of a faster flow the potential for Tay/Clyde / Forth/Clyde streamers would be pretty large, considering how long the easterly lasts http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100130/12/150/ukwind.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100130/12/240/ukwind.png

The block to the north looks strong, meaning the lows are going to be tracking south, merely enhancing the easterly flow and bringing colder uppers behind the low. http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100130/12/150/h500slp.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100130/12/228/h850t850eu.png

Meanwhile, the UKMO refuses to budge on bringing the low over us and not undercutting http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW120-21.GIF?30-17

This would mean the block is totally obliterated, with the jet bringing low after low towards the British Isles. All the background signals point to blocking to our north : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_full.gif http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/MJO/FebruaryPhase8500mb.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

These have been consistent for some time now.

So, in summary, the timeframe for an easterly has moved closer, but sadly model agreement is still not there yet!

LS

[Snooz]

Drama indeed!

This would mean the block is totally obliterated,

I think Lomond this is the bit I can't quite understand, I have very limited knowledge of all the various parts which make up weather, but in my simplistic view, I can't quite see how the block can be totally obliterated just like that?

perhaps amore middle ground between the two, but what would that be? who knows it's intersting watching for sure

[Snooz]

OK I think I see, can you spare a mo to teach me a bit about this lark?

so I *think* that T72 (as per the latest 12z's) is the crucial period as to whether the Greenland High starts building or not?

the so called Northern blocking .. is it dependant on that high building and/or meeting with the high over Scandinavia?

ie like this:

please do tell and don't be worried about telling me I'm really silly!

thanks

Edited January 30, 2010 by Snooz

[LomondSnowstorm]

OK I think I see, can you spare a mo to teach me a bit about this lark?

so I *think* that T72 (as per the latest 12z's) is the crucial period as to whether the Greenland High starts building or not?

the so called Northern blocking .. is it dependant on that high building and/or meeting with the high over Scandinavia?

ie like this:

please do tell and don't be worried about telling me I'm really silly!

thanks

No, you're quite right, this is necessary as it forces the lows to the west to either be forced west or to slide south into the continent. This is pretty much what the disagreements in the models rest on, the influence of the block to our northeast on the Greenland/Iceland area. Also, the 'block obliterated' comment was perhaps a bit of an exaggeration. What happens to it is that it is forced southeast over the Urals before backing west and setting up a dreaded Bartlett High scenario http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN144-21.GIF?30-18.

This doesn't look plausible to me, though stranger things have happened.

LS

[sammie]

someone quell my feers its not gonna get colder is it...tis very cold now.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

No, you're quite right, this is necessary as it forces the lows to the west to either be forced west or to slide south into the continent. This is pretty much what the disagreements in the models rest on, the influence of the block to our northeast on the Greenland/Iceland area. Also, the 'block obliterated' comment was perhaps a bit of an exaggeration. What happens to it is that it is forced southeast over the Urals before backing west and setting up a dreaded Bartlett High scenario

This doesn't look plausible to me, though stranger things have happened.

LS

Simple and effective explanation. I had figured that this northwestern block evolution was important, nice to see I was on the right tracks.

However, there is no need for swearing LSS; B****tt is not a word that should be used in front of children. Look what happens when it appears in the model thread.

Air just below freezing here. Snow would stick easily if it actually got here as the ground has dried out quite a bit and frozen solid.