Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 21:

[Mondy]

You can see the snowfall in the N & NE Scotland & east coast of England in this image: http://saturn.unibe.ch/rsbern/noaa/dw/realtime/current/n1bcurr.jpg

Oh, and remember that interesting swirl off Norway last night? http://www.knmi.nl/data/satrep/archive/KNMI/satrep.2010013000.html

Told ya!

Well, it's been about 2 weeks since I last dipped into the model thread - should I go or should I stay now?

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Told ya!

Well, it's been about 2 weeks since I last dipped into the model thread - should I go or should I stay now?

I suggest you go in there, tell everyone they're wrong and that you forecast this whole set-up months ago.

Would go down well

[LadyPakal]

Told ya!

If I'd said the PL words, it would have put the kibosh on it.

Well, it's been about 2 weeks since I last dipped into the model thread - should I go or should I stay now?

Only if you promise not to stir the pot - it's overmixed as it is! Some are even being accused of being Jemtom - that's low indeed... :lol:

Edited January 30, 2010 by LadyPakal

[LomondSnowstorm]

Told ya!

Well, it's been about 2 weeks since I last dipped into the model thread - should I go or should I stay now?

Bad time to look really. ECM 12Z very poor, so lot's of wrist slitting going on over there.

I suggest you go in there, tell everyone they're wrong and that you forecast this whole set-up months ago.

Would go down well

[Mondy]

I suggest you go in there, tell everyone they're wrong and that you forecast this whole set-up months ago.

Would go down well

*in he goes*........

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

*in he goes*........

Best of luck. Was nice knowing you.

[Mondy]

My bad :lol:

[Snowplough33]

My bad

Love your remark on the model thread......may I borrow your large wooden spoon??

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

My bad

Ha ha.

You actually did it. 'February Atlantic gales'. Love it.

You'd better watch out tonight, the locals will be digging out their pitchforks and torches.

Meto still sticking with their colder outlook. When they see the warm weather they're desperate for, I'll put away the snow chains until next year.

[Snooz]

My bad

Tine Out on the Naughty Step for you!

Thanks LS for the patient explanation - I'll never be a forecaster nor attempt it but it does help to know that when I look at the charts (which are pretty blinking exciting right now) that I might be able to attempt an explanation of what I see

and don't worry about the 'exaggeration', it's pretty tame compared to some other exaggerations, at least this one finally helped me see a bigger thing.. o many thanks again

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ha ha.

You actually did it. 'February Atlantic gales'. Love it.

You'd better watch out tonight, the locals will be digging out their pitchforks and torches.

Meto still sticking with their colder outlook. When they see the warm weather they're desperate for, I'll put away the snow chains until next year.

With the ECM it's around the 8th February when all the snow on the Cairngorms melt http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Still, FI is FI, and this is just as implausible as the -16 uppers we saw yesterday.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

With the ECM it's around the 8th February when all the snow on the Cairngorms melt http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

Still, FI is FI, and this is just as implausible as the -16 uppers we saw yesterday.

Could not agree more. The first thing I learned on here is not to believe any of the models beyond a few days. After that, they're just showing what might happen. As it is all about probability, there is no reason to suppose an outlier will not be the eventual set-up. As I tell my postgrad students, we can only accurately predict what we already know will happen.

As for Cairngorm; skiing on the 6+7, so should be fine. Will take a serious sustained B-word and SW'lys to kill the base they have there, so not too worried for now.

[howham]

A bit frustrating today as most of the showers have gone down the North Sea again. Still a good few inches here though and the showers were 'beefy' when they came. Are things looking more promising tomorrow?

[Allyw12]

Evening all

I been watching the drama unfold the past few days, trying to remain positive. So I've decided to watch the day after tommorow on c4 in the hope it brings us our day after tommorow next week. LOL

Edited January 30, 2010 by Allyw12

[snowy owl]

I still can't quite believe how up in the air (pardon the pun) the charts are today - i was hoping that things would have started to settle down and show positive trends across the board - silly me. Still all very interesting to watch.

Been biting cold today and ground is frozen solid. lovely to see the sun out though!

so what will happen on the later chart output?

[sammie]

Edinburgh Uni weather station is reding bang on 0.0C That gets me really excited I've never managed to catch it! Always 0.3C or just above it never bang on =]

[Northernlights]

Been a lovely winters day currently -1c. A few photos from today around the farm and across the Firth to the north.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I still can't quite believe how up in the air (pardon the pun) the charts are today - i was hoping that things would have started to settle down and show positive trends across the board - silly me. Still all very interesting to watch.

Been biting cold today and ground is frozen solid. lovely to see the sun out though!

so what will happen on the later chart output?

Strangely, I'm not downbeat at all about the prospects. When the meto have charts showing raging zonal for the next few days I'll quietly give in.

Tomorrow should be interesting. Too many times have I seen the models flip suddenly. This is the danger that plagues the model thread; people take individual runs too seriously.

For all our super computers etc, basically, we hardly understand the weather at all. I work on measurement of and prediction of equilibrium chemistry. The best models struggle to predict even simple equilibria (e.g. the freezing point of an aqueous solution). To think the weather models can reliably predict how a completely disequilbrated swirling mass of fluids whose behaviour is influenced by a ridiculous number of factors is silly. If they really could predict, they'd all agree. The fact that they don't shows how weak they are. We need to understand that. In my opinion, I'd favour the human opinion of a veteran weather forecaster over any model, why? Because models don't think; they can only tell us what we've already told them; i.e. they can only predict what we know will happen. Nobody can say a prediction is accurate unless they have real data showing what happens on the day in question.

While the models are getting better and better, it is only time and experience that will improve our ability to predict. Even when we think things are nailed, nature will chuck a spanner in the works.

Edited January 30, 2010 by scottish skier

[snowy owl]

Strangely, I'm not downbeat at all about the prospects. When the meto have charts showing raging zonal for the next few days I'll quietly give in.

Tomorrow should be interesting. Too many times have I seen the models flip suddenly. This is the danger that plagues the model thread; people take individual runs too seriously.

For all our super computers etc, basically, we hardly understand the weather at all. I work on measurement of and prediction of equilibrium chemistry. The best models struggle to predict even simple equilibria (e.g. the freezing point of an aqueous solution). To think the weather models can reliably predict how a completely disequilbrated swirling mass of fluids whose behaviour is influenced by a ridiculous number of factors is silly. If they really could predict, they'd all agree. The fact that they don't shows how weak they are. We need to understand that. In my opinion, I'd favour the human opinion of a veteran weather forecaster over any model, why? Because models don't think; they can only tell us what we've already told them; i.e. we can only predict what we know will happen. Nobody can see a prediction is accurate unless they have real data showing what happens on the day in question.

While the models are getting better and better, it is only time and experience that will improve our ability to predict. Even when we think things are nailed, nature will chuck a spanner in the works.

I completely agree, and wouldn't life be rather boring if we could predict everything that was going to happen!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Been a lovely winters day currently -1c. A few photos from today around the farm and across the Firth to the north.

Lovely pics, and amazing to think that only 4 weeks ago most of us had around or a bit more snow than that. Anyway, the model thread has almost driven me to insanity tonight - just as up in the air as before only instead of the easterly potential being around +200 hours it's only at around +120 hours! I'm going to post the master SM's post from TWO if nothing other than to cheer me up!

'lets face it- there's no resolution tonight---

the VERY surprising aspect of tonight is that the BIG 3 are ALL different from 96 onwards which is very unusual-

if we look at the varification stats ECM has gone down the pan lately, but UKMo has done very well- So that may tell us something-

the I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad (GFS I assume) has been very consistent of late in terms of the undercutting & IIRC (GEM I assume) has dealt with these types of evolution well before-

It will be around the 4th of Feb when we reach 120- & if the UKMO varifies as is for 144 then we will be no closer to cold at say Feb 8th..---- If thats the case time is ticking, on the other hand, on the GFS the 4th of Feb is that start of Winter proper & has the hallmarks of a very Wintery period-

A very very frustrating output tonight - if EITHER the ECM or UKMO varifiy we can kiss goodbye to a SUB 1C month-

Im going with the GEM/ GFS blend- & thinking the euros are to progressive-

S

His spelling is not great but you get the just of it.

In the shorter term, the Beeb are going for an snow event Wednesday, which is not really backed up by the GFS, but that is probably because the GFS and UKMO agree on nothing after Monday! Since there are no charts to back this up, I'll leave you to check out the beeb website, but perhaps a bit of a snow event would make up for an otherwise frustrating run.

edit: Another superb post SS. With so much disagreement tonight especially, we might as well just ignore the raw model output and make up our own forecast based on the background signals - just as likely to be on the money as any of the models tonight!

Edited January 30, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[LadyPakal]

The moon looks beautiful tonight - actually at perigee last night but with the snow clouds it was a bit hard to spot, so is at its brightest of the year right now.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

The moon looks beautiful tonight - actually at perigee last night but with the snow clouds it was a bit hard to spot, so is at its brightest of the year right now.

Noticed the moon was really bright myself. We're teaching the wee one (just over 2) that it's 'la lune' (her mum is french) as she's been pointing it out too. The word neige (snow) is her current favourite; must be a chip off the old block.

Keeping fingers crossed for a sudden turnaround re the models etc. Still feel all the doom and gloom is not justified yet. Nature will give us what it decides.

Would love a last go at really snowy weather followed by a nice warm spring.

[Sunny Leith]

Can only echo what you say there SS. I've worked in computing and science for a fair while now, in software engineering, bioinformatics and more recently in a cancer research trial (number crunching though, not a lab rat). I've always found it irksome that global warming scientists and their supporters have spoken so often of the science being "settled". I can actually think of very few areas in science where such a claim could be brazenly justified ! The incredible complexity of climate science - really a composite of at least a dozen other sciences - leaves plenty of scope for doubt, uncertainty and endless future research.

Climate change ? Well thats a trusim. Global warming ? Maybe, maybe not. "Man made" ? Thats where my belief in science's ability to identify man and CO2 as the chief protaganist is stretched just a little too much. A Chinese communist politician was once asked about what had been the historical impact of the 1789 French Revolution, he replied "Its too early to tell". Which is kind of my personal position on AGW

Ach ... you've got me rambling now ... its the red wine talking

Strangely, I'm not downbeat at all about the prospects. When the meto have charts showing raging zonal for the next few days I'll quietly give in.

Tomorrow should be interesting. Too many times have I seen the models flip suddenly. This is the danger that plagues the model thread; people take individual runs too seriously.

For all our super computers etc, basically, we hardly understand the weather at all. I work on measurement of and prediction of equilibrium chemistry. The best models struggle to predict even simple equilibria (e.g. the freezing point of an aqueous solution). To think the weather models can reliably predict how a completely disequilbrated swirling mass of fluids whose behaviour is influenced by a ridiculous number of factors is silly. If they really could predict, they'd all agree. The fact that they don't shows how weak they are. We need to understand that. In my opinion, I'd favour the human opinion of a veteran weather forecaster over any model, why? Because models don't think; they can only tell us what we've already told them; i.e. they can only predict what we know will happen. Nobody can say a prediction is accurate unless they have real data showing what happens on the day in question.

While the models are getting better and better, it is only time and experience that will improve our ability to predict. Even when we think things are nailed, nature will chuck a spanner in the works.

Edited January 30, 2010 by by-tor

[Mondy]

Snow Alert for ALL (or almost)of Scotland

This hasn't been picked up on that I can see:

http://www.sat24.com/ - cloud, lots of, now approaching northern Scotland, sinking south in northerly airflow. It's a comma feature as mentioned here

Of course, it may just be an almighty large fog bank!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Can only echo what you say there SS. I've worked in computing and science for a fair while now, in software engineering, bioinformatics and more recently in a cancer research trial (number crunching though, not a lab rat). I've always found it irksome that global warming scientists and their supporters have spoken so often of the science being "settled". I can actually think of very few areas in science where such a claim could be brazenly justified ! The incredible complexity of climate science - really a composite of at least a dozen other sciences - leaves plenty of scope for doubt, uncertainty and endless future research.

Climate change ? Well thats a trusim. Global warming ? Maybe, maybe not. "Man made" ? Thats where my belief in science's ability to identify man and CO2 as the chief protaganist is stretched just a little too much. A Chinese communist politician was once asked about what had been the historical impact of the 1789 French Revolution, he replied "Its too early to tell". Which is kind of my personal position on AGW

Ach ... you've got me rambling now ... its the red wine talking

Good to hear similar from another sensible scientist. 'the more we know, the more we realise how little we do' is my moto. I'll drink to your well balance view on science, inc GW