Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 21:

[LomondSnowstorm]

18Z looks good in the reliable but towards 168 hours brings the atlantic back in http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

Let's see what tomorrow brings, as today was a bit of a torrid day for model watching - hopefully a Scottish grand slam winner and a beast from the east!

Night all

LS

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Snow Alert for ALL (or almost)of Scotland

This hasn't been picked up on that I can see:

http://www.sat24.com/ - cloud, lots of, now approaching northern Scotland, sinking south in northerly airflow. It's a comma feature as mentioned here

Of course, it may just be an almighty large fog bank!

Been watching that too. Guess it will be a 'bed and wake up to open the curtains' type snow watch. Still hoping for some to reach us on this northerly.

[Cheggers]

Well I go out for a wee while and miss what sounds like virtual mass nervous breakdown!!! I would say that a few members on the model thread need to get out more, and lay off the prozac and late nights.

LS, great updates, glad to have got some sense about the up coming weather.

[Mondy]

The model thread really is either one of two things:

1) the downfall of NW.

2) the most comical thread on here.

[Cheggers]

Been watching that too. Guess it will be a 'bed and wake up to open the curtains' type snow watch. Still hoping for some to reach us on this northerly.

Not getting hopes up, just enjoying the nice crisp clear weather, like CMD mentioned earlier, been lacking in the sunlight recently, although moon just as bright tonight.

[Blizzardo]

The showers to the north west are starting to get a bit beefier and crossing the Great Glen which is always a good sign for those further south.

[Cheggers]

The model thread really is either one of two things:

1) the downfall of NW.

2) the most comical thread on here.

You mean both!

[Snowstorm1]

Been watching that too. Guess it will be a 'bed and wake up to open the curtains' type snow watch. Still hoping for some to reach us on this northerly.

I live in Ne england could tht make it this far south? i very much doubt it but jw

[Hairy Celt]

Snow Alert for ALL (or almost)of Scotland

This hasn't been picked up on that I can see:

http://www.sat24.com/ - cloud, lots of, now approaching northern Scotland, sinking south in northerly airflow. It's a comma feature as mentioned here

Of course, it may just be an almighty large fog bank!

Just looks like a different sort of cloud; doesn't seem to be associated with any particular change in ppn pattern. I would love to be proved wrong in the morning!!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

The model thread really is either one of two things:

1) the downfall of NW.

2) the most comical thread on here.

Both!!

To outsiders this entire forum must seem bl**dy mental, a bunch of grown men and women (+me and snowstorm1 ) getting worked up about weather models for days away! On the other hand, though, there are much less civillised forums out there than this one - check out the comments board of any newspaper article on just about anything! The internet is basically just a big shouting match between a plethora of different people and organisations trying to be heard by the others, and within that you can find just about anything to suit your taste, and an awful lot more which really doesn't. I doubt the model thread would get quite so heated and filled with people complaining of disappointment etc if it was conducted in person rather than online but obviously that just isn't in any way plausible or convenient. You just have to self moderate the thread by only reading posts by those who talk some sense

GP's thoughts are on the in depth discussion thread, and he seems to have about as much clue as the rest of us for the coming month!

LS

[Gilly]

Both!!

To outsiders this entire forum must seem bl**dy mental, a bunch of grown men and women (+me and snowstorm1 ) getting worked up about weather models for days away! On the other hand, though, there are much less civillised forums out there than this one - check out the comments board of any newspaper article on just about anything! The internet is basically just a big shouting match between a plethora of different people and organisations trying to be heard by the others, and within that you can find just about anything to suit your taste, and an awful lot more which really doesn't. I doubt the model thread would get quite so heated and filled with people complaining of disappointment etc if it was conducted in person rather than online but obviously that just isn't in any way plausible or convenient. You just have to self moderate the thread by only reading posts by those who talk some sense

GP's thoughts are on the in depth discussion thread, and he seems to have about as much clue as the rest of us for the coming month!

LS

Have to agree LS. Most of us on this thread wouldn't dare post on that thread for fear of being ridiculed.

At the end of the day as you say most of the arguments are based on what is usually in F1 and rarely comes to fruition.

"Perhaps this is just my dour east coast Scot culturally-Calvinist attitude kicking in but expecting low is the way to go in this situation IMHO!

LS"

Thinking its your latter comment on the Calvanist attitude may be what keeps this thread more rational and people a bit more willing to be a bit more pragmatic regarding the weather!

-1C and very light winds. Looks like being a cold few days, but nothing particularly exciting, unless of course a wee polar low pops up from somewhere!!

Edited January 31, 2010 by Gilly

[Snooz]

Morning..

Nicely done on the MO thread LS!

Well it looks like it will be quieter in there today after the 00Z..

anyway lots of wee showers overnight but they have beefed up this morning to give another solid covering though haven't looked out a the depth yet..

here's the 8am Huntly Cam pic as that's a lot eadier than going out in the cold this early

Currently 0C DP -1 (Wind chill -3) and snowing

looks like it will continue this way for a day or 2 on the N/East coast anyway, and hoping it meanders around for all too

Edited January 31, 2010 by Snooz

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Morning..

Nicely done on the MO thread LS!

Well it looks like it will be quieter in there today after the 00Z..

anyway lots of wee showers overnight but they have beefed up this morning to give another solid covering though haven't looked out a the depth yet..

here's the 8am Huntly Cam pic as that's a lot eadier than going out in the cold this early

Currently 0C DP -1 (Wind chill -3) and snowing

looks like it will continue this way for a day or 2 on the N/East coast anyway, and hoping it meanders around for all too

Morning all. Agreed on the toy and pram thread.

brrrrr. Looks at tad chilly at huntly. Just dry and frosty here.

Have not looked at any charts other than the meto pressure ones so far. They seem to show HP still building to the NW and the strong low S of greenland dissapating somewhat; the remnant mini lows drifting more SW. The high over southern europe continues its track W towards the middle east while the Siberian HP starts to push in a little from the east?

Does that not bode well for a movement of the jet south/undercutting/cold? Meto are still keeping a liberal sprinkling of the 'c', 's' and 'e' words in their 6-15 day. Was that what you were aluding to snooz re the 00Z?

One thought on the model thread, its dominance by people from southern parts and the apparently more pragmatic attitude up north...

Could we not draw an analogy between snow watching and international football. Of course, at each tournament the FI models show England storming to glorious victory. When this inevitably does not happen, dispair and arguements about who's fault it was follow. Cue sacked manager.

Up here, we don't think we have a hope in hell about winning anything, so when we get a nice surprise like beating France or the like, it's great.

Edited January 31, 2010 by scottish skier

[Blizzardo]

The models have moved away from another big cold spell so there will probably be a bit of disappointment around this morning.

Over the next week or so Scotland looks as though it will remain closest to cold conditions with some chances of snow at times but milder conditions should win out in the medium term.

The models really struggled to get a handle on this set up and dont be surprised to still see a little bit of chopping and changing still over the next few days but have to concede that it does look this morning that very cold conditions will need to wait until later in February at the earliest when the current stratospheric warming overrides things and gives another opportunity.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

The models have moved away from another big cold spell so there will probably be a bit of disappointment around this morning.

Over the next week or so Scotland looks as though it will remain closest to cold conditions with some chances of snow at times but milder conditions should win out in the medium term.

The models really struggled to get a handle on this set up and dont be surprised to still see a little bit of chopping and changing still over the next few days but have to concede that it does look this morning that very cold conditions will need to wait until later in February at the earliest when the current stratospheric warming overrides things and gives another opportunity.

Bit of a mess that chart; you can see the models are struggling.

Agreed we will be flirting with the cold over the next few days; my concern is Wed, when I'm supposed to travel to St Fergus on the coast N of Abderdeen. Looks like it could be on the cold side of things with some prep around.

I still feel there is no obvious return to classic warm zonal at least in the medium term; just a bit of a mish mash. Enough to keep me hopeful.

OMG - they're still at it in the model thread; half the posts are just 'sermons' to which others reply with snidey one liners.

I'm giving up model watching - stick to charts for the next few days and you'll generally know what to expect I guess.

Edited January 31, 2010 by scottish skier

[blitzen]

Morning all.

Another beautiful cold, clear, boring morning here with the sun splitting the sky. I like to see mornings like this during the summer with prospects of warm temperatures to follow. Nice to see folks up north getting some snow though but I am so jealous. I think that once again, the central belt has missed the boat. I see the easterly has crashed and burned but I think it was obvious that that was going to happen a few days ago as it just wasn't developing smoothly enough. I see by the 00zs that Scotland is likely to remain on the chilly side until Thursday? so there might be an opportunity to pick up something during the breakdown. No doubt LS will keep us informed though!

[GraemeB]

Morning all...

Just found this in the Model Thread - and it made me chuckle..

"AGREE with that completely. Also models are suggestive and not fact."

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

That wee swirl/mini LP to the north of Norway looks interesting.

Will probably slide past through the NS, but you never know.

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop

[Richard Taylor]

Out for a waIk Sat. GIorious sunny day, onIy an occasionaI fIurry. Iooks simiIar today, missing aII th shwrs.

[GraemeB]

Ensemblies are showing a "mildish" interlude on Tuesday with rain before dropping back to colder air on the Wednesday..

Not sure, other than the North of Scotland, that I can see any snow for the rest of us...

[Snooz]

SS, I like your Footie anomaly it does seem very much like that with some just enjoying the game and others living by it!

re the 00z I was just thinking that now the E'ly madness is all but over it should [hopefully] be less argumentative in there for a while, not saying that I don't believe we won't see some hints at some SE/E'ly breezes, but I certainly don't think the "Beast" the southerners were after is on the cards.

I don't think any of the models/charts can be classed as "nailed" even yet. (messy charts abound) - GP's and others views (although admittedly most of the actual tech talk goes way over my head) in the tech thread is very interesting (along with our own LS of course!) when taking into account what has just happed re: the GFS "amazing" flip

I'm kind of a pragmatist too, and enjoy the nowcasting much better, I do not see the need to back slap, or state the bl**ding obvious - it's kind of like picking a horse isn't it.. there's form that can be taken into account, butthn there's also the state of the ground (teleconnections?) - but when alls said and done it still doesn't mean the expected one will always win!

anyway regards your trip up here on Wednesday, from what I can gather it *should* be OK by then (i.e. these coastal showers look to have died down), Tuesday was always going be a very decisive day (IMHO!) and it looks to me like that's when we should see what that little low (is that what's known as a shortwave LS?) of the coast of Norway brings .. as at the current NAE charts it seems it might affect inland areas more but it's just coming into range on the 6z a bit more

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Morning all...

Just found this in the Model Thread - and it made me chuckle..

"AGREE with that completely. Also models are suggestive and not fact."

I liked:

Post:

"About how silly people are only looking for snowy charts etc.."

Reply:

"I know it's sunday, but I didn't plan on church this morning. Sermon over?"

Miaow (with claw gesture).

Was quite witty even though it was rude. Been deleted now as far as I can see.

[Snooz]

oops ^ anomaly = analogy

and LOL at the Miaow!!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

oops ^ anomaly = analogy

and LOL at the Miaow!!

Freudian slip; you're thinking too much about weather anomalies.

Seems the model thread is starting to calm as people realise it is not the end of winter and the next week does not look super mild, more of a cold/milder skirmish with us up north having better prospects. After than, it's FI and always will be a week ahead.

Just braved the model thread in response to q's about scottish views; said we were not unhappy at all in general, with many of us already having had new snow .

[Snowplough33]

Yeh that latest run on GSF is actually pretty good. SUre the details need firmed up but the cold holds on across Scotland and actually NE england. Could be lots of fun if the LP from the Atlantic pushes as far in as they think. Just hope those uppers are cold enough, got horrid feeling could be marginal east coast going with -7 / -8 rule. Intresting days lie ahead. Certainly nothing mild in reliable time

Just had a look and the uppers end of thye week are around -8 / -9. dam is around 527.......does this perhaps make any precip marginal ??

Edited January 31, 2010 by Snowplough33