Model Output Discussion

[Bobby]

GFS looking good so far, things are further SW.

[cooling climate]

The 12z GFS is only out to t84 and already you can see it is going to be a very good run,

how good I don't know yet.

Expect the UKMO to follow suit shortly.

[Matty M]

Interesting.

Get rid of pesky shortwave off Norway move that high further southwest and hey presto

[Eugene]

The milder air doesn't last long at all cold sub -5C 850 hPa air already pushing back south tuesday night, i can't see GFS being wrong here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn843.png-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

[Bobby]

GFS is nothing like the UKMO at for midnight Thursday:

UKMO +120

GFS +108

Something has to give.

[ChartViewer]

The 12z GFS is only out to t84 and already you can see it is going to be a very good run,

how good I don't know yet.

Expect the UKMO to follow suit shortly.

I think that is why People get frustrated. The UKMO is NOT out yet so why anyone can expect it to go

the same way is crazy.....It may do it may not but lets judge on Model runs that are showing?

Regards

CV

[Matty M]

What a corking run, where did this come from???? This stuff starts in a pretty reasonable timeframe

[swilliam]

The block is stronger on this run but we need the residual Scandi trough to fill. Good Atlantic trough alignment

[Thundery wintry showers]

Regardless of what FI shows it's clear to see that GFS does not support UKMO- it builds that ridge of high pressure for Wednesday instead of having a low crashing through as per UKMO.

[Iceberg]

UKMET coming out now, even at T18 you can see the differences, It will IMO back the GFS and move away from it's own position....Only 5 mins to go now.

[J10]

Some very cold Maximums would be likely as early as Thursday with uppers around -5c or less, and winds from the cold continent. (According to 12Hz GFS)

[Cloud 10]

The gfs 12z gives a two fingered salute to the ukmo 00z and is an upgrade on the 06z so far.

[MR EXTREMES]

Interesting.

Get rid of pesky shortwave off Norway move that high further southwest and hey presto

i think this is why the meto update was going for southeasterly first then easterly.

[weather eater]

Expect the UKMO to follow suit shortly.

I'm not so sure that will necessarily follow, there is still enough time for small differences to be making or breaking this easterly and the UKMO may still not fall into line. It might well be that it does, but it means no more than it did this morning if it fails to do so.

[Eugene]

This really is an excellent chart for cold weather fans look at the blocking to our north and east , the atlantic looks weak and is getting split very easily indeed.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

[Matty M]

Epic is the word to describe this GFS run.

[snowmackem]

GFS - Easterly by T138

[Iceberg]

Despite what a few are saying according to the 12Z GFS by 144Z in the reliable timeframe, the easterly is on -10 850's enter from the east and the whole country is under -5's with snow showers.

[remymartin]

Great gfs run.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

T84 and GFS has not backed down...This is a big plus.

Should be a good run this at least in the slightly more reliable timeframe, also snow still on Tuesday for England.

Been some very good and consistent posting amongst the angst...and this is part of a long run of the most unbiased and sensibly accurate posts. Enough niceties because I have even liked IBs posts too, but good stuff.

Ice the negative tilt at point T111 looks very very good indeed, upgrade short term for sure.

BFTP

[J10]

Look at the Northern Blocking as early as T+138 (Friday)

Not quite as cold uppers over the UK at this stage (compared to 06HZ), but the pattern is looknig really great, and that is more important at this stage.

[LomondSnowstorm]

My, my, what a run from the GFS! Surely the UKMO will fall into line, surely!

[Tom D]

I think this evening's models will show some big differences at t+96 to t+120 and thereafter. The GFS is excellent between this time but people should wait for other models to make any firm judgements.

EDIT: My point has just been exemplified by the UKMO. One or the other will have to back down as there's little chance of an 'in between' happening.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[PubliusEnigma]

Epic is the word to describe this GFS run.

OMG Look at T+132 - T+135, WHAT a run by the GFS. THe South west and Wales would grind to a

halt with total chaos on roads !! That is an incredible set up. T+132 is definitley within the reliable

thats 5+half days away, i think we can start to count are chickens... darn it..1,2 .. erm 3 ?

Just what the doctor ordered. GFS - Mr Reliable, just when you need it most.

[nick sussex]

OMG the UKMO still refuses to go with the GFS! They look similar at 72hrs but then the UKMO phases the Atlantic low with the shortwave to the east. This is becoming painful! the UKMO later output is very poor, unbelievable how there can be this much difference this early on.

Edited January 30, 2010 by nick sussex