Model Output Discussion

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The UKMO still says no

It brings the atlantic lows right across the meridian

Edited January 30, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[AderynCoch]

I take it then that the worst that can happen with the UKMO (from a cold-lover's perspective I should hasten to add) is that it remains an outlier?

[PubliusEnigma]

My, my, what a run from the GFS! Surely the UKMO will fall into line, surely!

Can you imagine what would happen if that Monster cyclone in mid atlantic moved due east and undercut the block say

in over Biscay, blizzard central, for the south, and it would only serve to reinforce the developing easterly ! Incredible scenes this afternoon.

[Matty M]

Never in your life will you see such a huge difference between 2 major models at 96hrs. Never.

What a forecasting Nightmare.

UKM

GFS

[Bobby]

UKMO still says an emphatic NO.

One model is going to take a big hit to its credibility, but which?

[Iceberg]

The UKMETO not only says no, it sticks up two fingers on both hands. !

What a bizarre situation, the key differences are there at T60 IMO.

How much of a pain is this....

Fantastic GFS, appaling METO. Tbh I woulf favour the GFS, but confirmation from ENS and ECM is needed. Pooh I was hoping to be able to get off the computer by now. !

[MR EXTREMES]

Can you imagine what would happen if that Monster cyclone in mid atlantic moved due east and undercut the block say

in over Biscay, blizzard central, for the south, and it would only serve to reinforce the developing easterly ! Incredible scenes this afternoon.

not incredible enough though ukmo still not having none of it.

do we bin the ukmo because alot have said if tonight it continues like this morning then its game over for cold,

and is the gfs being to progressive?

oh no i got a sinking feeling.

[PubliusEnigma]

Never in your life will you see such a huge difference between 2 major models at 96hrs. Never.

What a forecasting Nightmare.

UKM

GFS

Spot the difference they are practically identical charts BAR

the low UKMO sits over N Ireland, GFS has no low there at all !

Somone has got it wrong, will it be the low, or wont it ??

you know what.. that trough that extends NE from N Ireland on the UKMO

looks plain wrong ! Is it just me or does anyone else agree ??

Edited January 30, 2010 by PubliusEnigma

[The PIT]

The UKMO still says no

Can't get a dafter set up can you. Never seen such a contrast between two of the big three. I wonder if ECM will play middle ground again or not. So anything can still happen.

Of course it wasn't so long ago that everyone was saying GFS was a load of rubbish so model swapping is still the flavour of the month I see.

[Tim Bland]

A bit early to be cracking the Champagne on the GFS run. Thats a monster low to the SW at T+168 wouldn' take much for it to spoil the party! http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn1684.png

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tim Bland

[cooling climate]

The UKMO is slowly getting there, another couple of runs and it will be in line

with the GFS and the ECM.

Meanwhile another good run from the GFS although somehow I doubt that massive

950mb low will verify.

Edited January 30, 2010 by cooling climate

[weather eater]

OMG the UKMO still refuses to go with the GFS! They look similar at 72hrs but then the UKMO phases the Atlantic low with the shortwave to the east.

Yep I did just say its not a forgone conclusion that the UKMO would follow the GFS. I'm not sure why anybody thought it would, I see nothing unusual about it, just standard modelling difficulties. In my view it boils down to whether any of the other models follow its lead in trying to ascertain how much credibility it has.

[sandstorm2]

Have never seen the models with such massive differences, UKMO is a real stick in the mud, but one of them is wrong, maybe the ECMWF will be the arbitre.

I was hoping that there would be some agreement by now but we are still waiting, can anyone give a reasonable explanation why models are so different, theu must have the same sort of data going into them.

SS2

[Bobby]

UKMO looks like a textbook "even larger teapot" chart. UKMO could well end this winter... very Euro high-ish. GFS total opposite however.

[Eugene]

Great GFS run, the leader this winter so far, ignore at your peril, on TWO they are more worried about that deep low that stalls south of greenland :lol, its not going to reach us at all.

[nick sussex]

Its amazing here that one pesky shortwave could derail the whole pattern, the UKMO continues to pull the low to the east westwards and phases it with the Atlantic low where as the GFS pushes this se'wards, this one thing means the difference between snow and cold and mild mush sw'erlies!

This is extremely frustrating and soon my lap top might end up chucked out of the window!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The UKMO is slowly getting there, another couple of runs and it will be in line

with the GFS and the ECM.

Meanwhile another good run from the GFS although somehow I doubt that massive

950mb low will verify.

I'm sorry I have to respond to this. The UKMO is nowhere near 'getting there'

Both the GFS and UKMO have stuck to their guns and one is wrong and the other right. But you simply cannot say the UKMO is getting there. As Iceberg says, it has stuck up two fingers on both hands.

[conor123]

The 12z in the early part of the lower Resolution run is how the UK can get a rare freezing rain/ice storm, obviously not going to happen but interesting.

Even if the GFS came off the in the higher resolution part of the run there's nothing that exciting, just a week of days like weve had today only with the odd snow down the east coast instead of in the North West.

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW120-21.GIF?30-17 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-120.png?12

One of them has to be really wrong!! The ECM could be key if it comes out decisively closer to one of these, but if it takes the middle ground again, things are still very much blurred. The ensembles are also going to be key, and again if the ECM ensembles hold consistently cold then perhaps the picture for us will be a bit clearer.

LS

[Bobby]

A bit early to be cracking the Champagne on the GFS run. Thats a monster low to the SW at T+168 wouldn' take much for it to spoil the party! http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn1684.png

The monster low just undercuts the block as expected delivering a megablizzard for much of southern Britain.

[Ben_Cambs]

So with UKMO at one end and GFS at the other end, where will ECM sit tonight? I think thats the main question

[southbank]

as people point out the difference btn the ukmo/gfs at such a short timeframe is unbelievable as one model is totally out of sync , i guess choose your pick which model is better aligned at working out the energy distrubtion of the jet as it exits the eastern US . MY only thinking is that the UKMet have mentioned about a warm bias to their models which is being looked at , maybe their model is struggling with the block but knowing us uk cold fans chance is that the ukmeto will be spot on and the gfs will be the one thats one

[Tim Bland]

Snow for the SW and wales as the altlantic meets the continent http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.png. Who will win...Or will it be a draw with an under cut?

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tim Bland

[nick sussex]

Yep I did just say its not a forgone conclusion that the UKMO would follow the GFS. I'm not sure why anybody thought it would, I see nothing unusual about it, just standard modelling difficulties. In my view it boils down to whether any of the other models follow its lead in trying to ascertain how much credibility it has.

I agree but we don't normally see this huge difference this early on, and normally i just couldn't back against the UKMO at that timeframe. This is probably the biggest model divergence I've ever seen at that timeframe.

[MR EXTREMES]

The UKMO is slowly getting there, another couple of runs and it will be in line

with the GFS and the ECM.

Meanwhile another good run from the GFS although somehow I doubt that massive

950mb low will verify.

but it is possible that the ecm could follow the ukmo i hope not but its possible.

the ukmo does look rather odd and in my opion the alantic just does not seem that active maybe thats all about to change.

i dont think i can take anymore of this its totally crazy.

i cant understand the ukmo seem confident there own model is wrong.