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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Actually yes is the answer.

So far we have seen Feb 1947, couple of cold SE,lys, A few cold E,lys, BBQ S,lys and this has been over the last 3-4 days!

Never been a fan of the ECM +192/216/240 charts which is why for this timeframe I use the GEFS/GEM means.

I don't want members thinking that im dismissing the UKMO/ECM because that would be wrong of me. However I have little faith in any of the model output at the moment and they could all be wrong.

Look at these ensembles for Aberdeen.

http://charts.netwea...erdeenshire.png

These are frankly stunning and if we didn't have access to the UKMO/ECM this forum would be in meltdown with all the ramping.

Very wise words and exactly the right attitude to have IMO.

Thanks.

Those ensembles though did surprise me a bit as well, given what appeared to be a milder trend emerging based on the 2 models we usually rely on most heavily! It was a long term upgrade also for MBY, though further south was less cold, perhaps suggesting lows tracking across southern England.

It might all be irrelevant tomorrow though, but at least this whole thing will finally be resolved one way or another, most likely conclusively.

LS

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

the nsembles are impressive but for England there is still a cluster going for a warm up. Its very difficult.

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

A model will have to break today. We are too close to the potential Easterly now. It is going to be decided later today. The Euro's have the advantage with NOGAPS the latest to drop any Easterly. The 00z GFS could be decisive. I think it will be and im thinking mild will win. Almost the kitchen table against an Easterly now. Almost...

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Sadly the GFS 00z puts the final nail in the coffin

Rtavn961.png

That's it - no more Easterly. ECM has come out best of this IMO.

Very disappointing for alot of posters but this is the way it works. Unfortunately it appears past lessons have not been learnt.

Oh and that guy on TWO that writes the summary - he looks like a fcuking imbecile right now. This is the danger of FI. Don't EVER take it seriously.

[/quote

Your quite right there Eagle, just because things luckily fell into place earlier this Winter many have been sucked in by the GFS yet again and lessons not been learned or remembered at any rate. I have not posted recently for fear of putting the mockers on things, but stayed up for the 00z with fingers very tightly crossed, all those brilliant runs for nothing, waste of time and energy, plain and simple! 8)

And to think that the GFS had the cheek to stick to its guns, in the shorter term at any rate, with the 18z and then just throw in the rag without even a fight.

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL

It does seem that for all these new super computors, and the like, nothing much has changed since the good old days. You got the 5 day forcast from the BBC and that was it. No-one even attempted to forcast beyond that point, because it couldnt be done with any accuracy. Seems it still cant.

I mean come on, there is a bit of a difference between mild sw"s and 12c and a raging easterly and 0c.

Credit to the UKMO though, it did stick to its guns and never budged, and seems that it was spot on the money

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet, North London
  • Location: Barnet, North London

That is one of the most spectacular backtracks I've ever seen from any model. Something had to give in this run and it did. We simply couldn't get any closer to the event with such huge differences between the models. UKMO wins this one. 8)

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

That is one of the most spectacular backtracks I've ever seen from any model. Something had to give in this run and it did. We simply couldn't get any closer to the event with such huge differences between the models. UKMO wins this one. 8)

Not really-no severe cold spell was ever shown in the reliable time-frame was it,just people yet again getting carried away by wonderous charts in fl.Same thing happens every winter yet people never seem to learn:nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Yep, can't really add much to whats been said above, the GFS has finally been dragged kicking and screaming in-line with the Met and ECM. Goes to show the UKMO isn't that dodgy at +144 after all.

Any block is well and truly blown away from the UK and were back at +300 for anything remotely wintry after a possible short transitional snow event on Wednesday.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I think part of it is also with the specific person. If you close yourself off to liking one type of weather and that type of weather is particularly rare or seldom happens then there will be disappointment. Granted I love snow but through the medium of gardening Ive also developed a liking for mild, and also because thats what I find comfortable healthwise, if you are able to adopt to this, ie expand yuor weather interests, you will welcome every type of weather, which is the essence of a true weather fan.

As for the models, the UKMO looks like its got data missing!

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Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire

Not much to say this morning really other than turnaround more or less complete. For me the writing had been on the wall for several runs now with the way the UKMO output was trending. I know the UKMO T+144 gets a lot of stick, but you have to take your hat off to the model on its recent performance. GFS has finally latched on, and the ensembles sum it up really:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

If its any consolation, its not just us that has seen the outlook flip...the change is even more striking on the Berlin ensembles:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Berlin_ens.png

It will be interesting to see how much the ECM ensembles change as well after all this as they were also very bullish about cold, even though the operational was often a milder run.

In the meantime, hats off to our very own model, the UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: cotswolds
  • Location: cotswolds

now that the gfs has flipped completely the meto 6-15 day forecast update will be interesting today. normally these forecasts change reasonably gradually, so how will they handle today's update which by rights should be dramatically different. anyway, disappointing 0z, and back to square one for the moment

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Just looked at the 00z's and I have to say I really can't see a way back from this.

Normally even in these type circumstances there are some positives, straws to clutch etc, but I have to say I have none. 8) Anybody else got any??

The GFS appears to have got it horribly horribly wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Normally even in these type circumstances there are some positives, straws to clutch etc, but I have to say I have none. 8) Anybody else got any??

Well ECM shows blocking around Greenland, the problem is that great Atlantic low prevents it having much influence. Looks a bit like late March 2006. So maybe the easterly was a mirage and the Greenland region is the place to look.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Just looked at the 00z's and I have to say I really can't see a way back from this.

Normally even in these type circumstances there are some positives, straws to clutch etc, but I have to say I have none. sad.gif Anybody else got any??

The GFS appears to have got it horribly horribly wrong.

Is it possible that we could just focus on the next few days now.There seems the possibility of a couple of snow events for a few in this mornings output again.I notice the usual backslapping has started before anything has occured in the present.Feb has not started yet and i am sure cold will re- appear shortlybiggrin.gif and without warning.

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Posted
  • Location: lancing, west sussex
  • Location: lancing, west sussex

Normally even in these type circumstances there are some positives, straws to clutch etc, but I have to say I have none. 8) Anybody else got any??

Hmmm.... I guess JMA is not a disaster, it may not change tonight, from yesterday 8)

post-10842-12649248245288_thumb.gif

Personally i find the chase as exciting as the catch. even though this time the easterly may have gone, im ready to chase the next one even if we have to wait a few weeks/years. so close, the easterly managed to get to +144 at one point, which is not far fetched lala land.

Must say thx to Tetis BFTP Steve M and many more for your great imput during this eciting period.

Edited by thegreat316
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well ECM shows blocking around Greenland, the problem is that great Atlantic low prevents it having much influence. Looks a bit like late March 2006. So maybe the easterly was a mirage and the Greenland region is the place to look.

Well I skipped the gfs 00z and went straight to the ukmo, just the same as yesterday and the day before so it's a bit of a stuck record or maybe a broken record? The ecm 00z not as progressive as the ukmo with scotland looking colder at times perhaps with some snow but generally it looks like becoming very unsettled with temps returning to near average but still a risk of snow on northern hills and mountains but the easterly is in the bin sadly unless there is a miracle.

Edited by Frosty039
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Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)

The easterly modeled for around early Feb does look like dissapating, but who knows what is still to come especially from these models! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent

Incredible backtrack from the GFS in just six hours ( op, control & full ensemble suite ). Gone from a good 60% agreement on cold to around 1 member !! Dont think I've ever seen such a turnaround on just one run before. Goes to show that even ensemble trends mean diddly squat sometimes.

Still we've a sub 2c monthly CET in the bag for January so some consolation for this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Not much to say this morning really other than turnaround more or less complete. For me the writing had been on the wall for several runs now with the way the UKMO output was trending. I know the UKMO T+144 gets a lot of stick, but you have to take your hat off to the model on its recent performance. GFS has finally latched on, and the ensembles sum it up really:

http://www.wzkarten...._London_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten....chester_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten....berdeen_ens.png

If its any consolation, its not just us that has seen the outlook flip...the change is even more striking on the Berlin ensembles:

http://www.wzkarten...._Berlin_ens.png

It will be interesting to see how much the ECM ensembles change as well after all this as they were also very bullish about cold, even though the operational was often a milder run.

In the meantime, hats off to our very own model, the UKMO.

And hats of to you too,you were adament the uk met model was correct,well done:clap:

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

wow, after seemingly days of uncertainty its now looking like there wont be a freezing easterly! :D . the ukmo and ecm both now go for atlantic domination with the gfs 00z more reluctant to agree.

personally this is a very pleasing outlook for me.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Funnily enough, the GFS 00z keeps scotland cold all next week with widespread frosts and a chance of snow at times all the way through to T+168 hours, the ecm 00z shows something similar with the main energy held back further south west. The gfs never really blasts the cold block away, it lingers for the full gfs run and even shows signs of coming back by T+384 but maybe that is just to mock us.

Edited by Frosty039
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire

Glacier Point's post from last night is well worth reading this morning:

It really highlights the uncertainty. I am picking out one bit that seems particularly relevant.

I think it would be safe to allow for minimum 14-28 days to see the impacts of the warming of the stratosphere work through. That places us into mid February before realistically expecting any heights raised by the warming event. In my view, the models have been way to progressive and failed to cope with this aspect.

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Posted
  • Location: Co Clare, Ireland
  • Location: Co Clare, Ireland

Yep, can't really add much to whats been said above, the GFS has finally been dragged kicking and screaming in-line with the Met and ECM. Goes to show the UKMO isn't that dodgy at +144 after all.

Any block is well and truly blown away from the UK and were back at +300 for anything remotely wintry after a possible short transitional snow event on Wednesday.

Don't understand this & other similar posts.

I've been watching quietly every day. It was ECM who had everyone going ape the other day with its absolutely mythic Easterlies. And when GFS did(patchily)show an Easterly, ECM usually had a better one. GFS was reluctant then hesitant about it; Only UKMO has held consistent.

Remember, the mild run is usually the right run.

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Posted
  • Location: Campsie
  • Location: Campsie

It has to be said that the UKMO comes out of this looking good. When almost everything was pointing to a very cold outlook it stuck to its guns. It was such a close situation and seems ironic that when you least want it to the Atlantic wakes up and starts firing on all cylinders.

Edited by Blizzardo
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I still think the gfs & ecm are only half as bad as the ukmo with northern britain remaining cold and wintry with just the southern half becoming less cold/milder.

Edited by Frosty039
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