Model Output Discussion

[Secret Society]

it can still come good...

i just think its just delayed a little.

another twist on the cards i feel.

the met 15 dayer will be telling today

[Frosty.]

it can still come good...

i just think its just delayed a little.

another twist on the cards i feel.

the met 15 dayer will be telling today

I think the meto update will still be talking about snow and ice in the north (scotland), especially on northern hills but also a lot of wet and windy weather with near average temps which is what the gfs, ecm and ukmo indicate, flooding could become a major problem in the next few weeks IMO.

[mushymanrob]

Glacier Point's post from last night is well worth reading this morning:

It really highlights the uncertainty. I am picking out one bit that seems particularly relevant.

with the greatest respect to glacier point ... he isnt always right as im sure he will admit. in june the signes were that the predicted 'bbq' summer would happen into july with heat and dry weather. yes listen to what the intelligent, knowlegable people say, but bare in mind that it is only predictions, not fact.

Well the 0Zs have confirmed the worst fears, with some horrific charts around this morning for cold fans - although obviously good news if you like the Atlantic murk.

oh come on mate, you coldies have had 2 months of freezing conditions... time for some milder weather, which doesnt HAVE to be dull and overcast. mind you, i dont mind that in february...

[Duane S.]

Well the 0Zs have confirmed the worst fears, with some horrific charts around this morning for cold fans - although obviously good news if you like the Atlantic murk.

As S4lancia says, this pattern will be a mimimum of two weeks and that takes us into the second half of Feb. A snow cover here this morning and for anyone else who has snow, make the most of it !

Hi Ian, it's GP saying 2 weeks minimum although on the back of the 00z's I wouldn't want to argue with that timescale...

[Glacier Point]

with the greatest respect to glacier point ... he isnt always right as im sure he will admit. in june the signes were that the predicted 'bbq' summer would happen into july with heat and dry weather. yes listen to what the intelligent, knowlegable people say, but bare in mind that it is only predictions, not fact.

Would agree with that Rob. However, with the experience of December where non-NWP analysis suggested a cold pattern and where now the same method of coupled atmosphere-ocean analysis was very guarded against any cold pattern, I think we are working our way to a solid methodology for long range prediction to put alongside the model guidance. This is still a learning process but this winter has been a defining period.

Of course, any change to a milder pattern is still in the future so no assumptions being made here - it's just that we have a better grounding on what models should be showing day 5 onwards and the degree of confidence we can have in that.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well the ECM sets up a west based -NAO situation with a trough stuck to our SW along with the Scandi trough....result...freezing mid Atlantic, mild UK. GFS today thus far has backtracked. Before one accepts the 5day ahead 'outlook' hold fire because if the models have been handling things badly they won't 'suddenly' become very accurate. Look no further than here

There is still no certainty where it goes from here. However, I have always said initially look NW and not East. For me its all about how far NE the Atlantic influences, and that still isn't sorted yet no matter what the ens show. We have just seen how fickle they are. We may turn mild and if we do the block will be wrong and a mildish month beckons. The cold signal was there mid Jan and for sure there's a block coming with cold air to spill from the arctic.....it just may not be for Britain and Ireland. I am waiting until the end of tomorrow before the first week to 10 days of Feb is likely to play out. Dec was a classic example as all models went to mild and then flipped to cold, so nothing is decided but if one looked at the models face value today one would say....mild.

BFTP

Edited January 31, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[TEITS]

Gosh what dreadful runs this morning.

Again the UKMO which has often said no to an E,ly in the past looks like nailing this yet again. There must be something within the UKMO model that just handles these situations better. Another lesson learn't is just how fickle the ensembles can be with the operationals generally leading the way. Look at below for an example.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100131/00/prmslCambridgeshire.png

The mean has been rock solid at 1030mb these past few days with hardly any members being as low as the mean.

The ECM ensembles are even worse.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

The mean once stood below freezing and yet when the period in question arrives I reckon the mean wil be around +7C. A change of around 10C!!

So in summary the next time an E,ly is modelled by the GFS or ECM if the UKMO doesn't agree then the ensembles are pretty much useless.

[Jason T]

Well the ECM sets up a west based -NAO situation with a trough stuck to our SW along with the Scandi trough....result...freezing mid Atlantic, mild UK. GFS today thus far has backtracked. Before one accepts the 5day ahead 'outlook' hold fire because if the models have been handling things badly they won't 'suddenly' become very accurate. Look no further than here

There is still no certainty where it goes from here. However, I have always said initially look NW and not East. For me its all about how far NE the Atlantic influences, and that still isn't sorted yet no matter what the ens show. We have just seen how fickle they are. We may turn mild and if we do the block will be wrong and a mildish month beckons. The cold signal was there mid Jan and for sure there's a block coming with cold air to spill from the arctic.....it just may not be for Britain and Ireland. I am waiting until the end of tomorrow before the first week to 10 days of Feb is likely to play out. Dec was a classic example as all models went to mild and then flipped to cold, so nothing is decided but if one looked at the models face value today one would say....mild.

BFTP

AGREE with that completely. Also models are suggestive and not fact.

[cooling climate]

Well I'm not really keen on humble pie at the best of times but first thing for

breakfast, yuk.

I am still of the view that the easterly may be just delayed by a couple of days

but unless the models show some signs of this then it is no more than pure

speculation on my part.

With plenty of blocking still forcast in the north I can not see the Atlantic being

the dominant force in our weather over the next couple of weeks.

[The PIT]

Okay a hard lesson has been dished out yet again to some members, some of whom should know better especially after the famous failed beast of the beast.

It seems the lust for cold over ruled minds and hearts even when only one model showed it. The much maligned GFS. Again FI watching isn't fact even assembly watching isn't fact in FI land. They just show possible outcomes and as I learnt in the past the odd one out could be the correct one. Sometime it can be used for trend spotting but even that isn't 100% guaranteed.

Quite interesting how model swapping occurred focusing on the model that shows the cold and anyone who said "Hold on" was dismissed as a doom and gloom merchant.

Winter isn't over but at the end of Feb it will be regardless. Mild weather is also a part of winter so anyone who says "darn it it's going to mild" isn't saying winter is over.

I'm wondering whether this warming event will mean more blocking later on in the month or is there any part of the puzzle that clever people GP will find and fit in.

What ever happens this winter has been one of the most interesting one for sometime and hopefully future winters will be as interesting.

[GoonerGregg]

My gosh! There has been so much chopping and changing, agreement in models, to no agreement, this, that, the other! It's dizzy stuff!

Met Office are seeing a trend to a SE-E flow in the coming weeks, until that gets updated, then I will be monitoring that.

I do believe seeing as the models are throwing our hopes, and emotions every which way, I personally think things will swing towards a SE flow, thus bringing another cold spell of sorts, and a snow threat will again come above us very soon after this latest predicted brief milder spell during the early part of next week.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Whilst it would be silly to ignore the models this morning i personally have not given up hope.The models could still be overplaying the Atlantic,the key timeframe remains 4 to 5 days away and thats a long time

in this regard.

The ecm has flipped somwhat but dont be suprised if we see more twists and turns before the next 48 hours are up.

[Weather-history]

Apart from that short lived easterly affair, a week before Christmas, the easterlies (the second weekend of January) have either not delivered, been weak affairs or failed to materialise. Thats been the story of this winter. It has been looked north for sustained cold and really snowy episodes. Famous last words but I think any cold spells of note for the rest of this winter is going to be look north rather than east.

[PB22]

Gosh what a change in those ECM ensembles...I suspect the London ones will look even milder when they come out in a bit. I'd love to be a fly on the wall of Met Office HQ and to hear their discussions this morning as even they were suggesting a cold easterly developing later next week even though their very own model didn't look favourable for that set up developing.

[john mac]

Whilst it would be silly to ignore the models this morning i personally have not given up hope.The models could still be overplaying the Atlantic,the key timeframe remains 4 to 5 days away and thats a long time

in this regard.

The ecm has flipped somwhat but dont be suprised if we see more twists and turns before the next 48 hours are up.

Morning all

Been away for a few days, just read through all the threds for yesterday and what a load of garbage some people posted, Quite unbelievable.

I agree with you there HD, the models could be averdoing the atlantic low which IMO could make a huge difference to the medium range,

6Z about to come out

[MP-R]

My gosh! There has been so much chopping and changing, agreement in models, to no agreement, this, that, the other! It's dizzy stuff!

Met Office are seeing a trend to a SE-E flow in the coming weeks, until that gets updated, then I will be monitoring that.

I do believe seeing as the models are throwing our hopes, and emotions every which way, I personally think things will swing towards a SE flow, thus bringing another cold spell of sorts, and a snow threat will again come above us very soon after this latest predicted brief milder spell during the early part of next week.

I was thinking that. The period where the Atlantic takes fully charge is not that long lasting from Fri 05th until Tue 09th then it's all change again. The GFS shows this:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.png

At least we never get those dreaded yellows and oranges coming from the southwest! Mainly looks like WSW-WNW Atlantic flow. But on this note, usually February sees the Atlantic calm down quite considerably. Do we know what has made this year different? Nearly all the years I can think of where the Atlantic has been active in February have also been ones when it was active in January e.g. 2002 and 2007.

[Rollo]

Well I'm not really keen on humble pie at the best of times but first thing for

breakfast, yuk.

I am still of the view that the easterly may be just delayed by a couple of days

but unless the models show some signs of this then it is no more than pure

speculation on my part.

With plenty of blocking still forcast in the north I can not see the Atlantic being

the dominant force in our weather over the next couple of weeks.

Nobody likes eating humble pie but the way things are looking this morning with really no backing for anything but mild later this week I think I know what my lunch will be!! I think we should take on board what GP has been saying-nothing really until the MMR takes effect and if I recall correctly Uncle Joe B was calling for cold mid Feb to mid March,just when we are hoping for an early spring.

[Weather-history]

But on this note, usually February sees the Atlantic calm down quite considerably. Do we know what has made this year different? Nearly all the years I can think of where the Atlantic has been active in February have also been ones when it was active in January e.g. 2002 and 2007.

February 1997 was a striking example, January 1997 was blocked and very dry whilst the February was very stormy and highly zonal.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looks like we're going to be stuck in between two cold air sources with neither managing to influence our weather unless something changes.

Is it me or does the 6Z look like it has a bit more undercut potential than the 00Zs? http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100131/06/78/h500slp.png

[stewfox]

So in summary the next time an E,ly is modelled by the GFS or ECM if the UKMO doesn't agree then the ensembles are pretty much useless.

About 3 days ago I mention the UKMO at T144 was showing the outcome we see from all models this morning, I mention if anyone took it seriously (we had just moved from its going to be 1947 to still very cold Easterly nearly here).

It was dismissed by nearly all as rubbish , the ECM etc being the holy grail

Now I see its back at the top of the tree

Interesting switch in the ensembles, I always felt they had some validity re trends , maybe they act like a heard of sheep one whistle and there all off the other way. We just need to find some whistle to get them back on track

[Paul_1978]

The lesson on here that no one seems to learn is that looking at charts after T+144 should be taken with a pinch of salt much of the time. How many times have we seen people posting charts at T+200/T+300 that are never likely to come off.

I don't post regularly but as a model follower, many would be advised never to get excited about anything after T+144. I know FI changes, but I have always found T+144 to be the general cut off point for reliability.

Whilst I am disappointed about losing the easterly, I am not absolutely gutted becuase for me it was never in a reliable time frame in any way, shape or form. Having said that, there's time yet for a turnaround....but don't look past T+144!

Regards to all,

Paul

[weather eater]

Hmmm.... I guess JMA is not a disaster, it may not change tonight, from yesterday

Personally i find the chase as exciting as the catch. even though this time the easterly may have gone, im ready to chase the next one even if we have to wait a few weeks/years. so close, the easterly managed to get to +144 at one point, which is not far fetched lala land.

Must say thx to Tetis BFTP Steve M and many more for your great imput during this eciting period.

Models are there to be discussed on this thread, but why oh why do some go at it with the same lack of caution time after time, it beats me. I rather suspect we will now see a different group of people do the same in regards milder conditions. We often talk of spotting trends, well this should be a stark lesson, trends can look as clear as day and still mean squat. Its rather reinforced my view that model runs that go out past 144hrs are a waste of time.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

As ever in these situations I am never sure whether it is the models that overreact or the members.

Has anyone actually looked at the actual patterns being shown by the models today ??

Amongst the melee of rubbish that was seemingly posted after I left here last night, I said on parting that the ECM and the GFS were both showing a -NAO pattern and a -AO pattern. The difference was that the GFS was going to undercut the block and the ECM was going to place a deep trough in the mid western atlantic slightly north of the Azores area whilst pressure rose over Greenland and Canada.

What we see again this morning is the same -NAO/AO pattern but what has happened is the GFS has fallen in line with the ECM idea of the variation on the -AO pattern. Of course in terms of the actual weather that results from it we see mild south westerlies instead of the cold easterlies - so it seems like the models have done a huge flip.

In fact, to my eyes anyway, they seem to followed have GP's script of heights lifting out from Siberia and moving to Canada/western Greenland. End result is that the blocking is too far south west!, and the -NAO too far west for any undercut to take place. Instead we see a down stream ridge over europe. Hence the mild tropical maritime aistream currently suggested.

This situation is still very liable to change over the coming few days, and needs to watched closely.

Whilst a big freeze was never guaranteed, an extended blowtorch is not guaranteed either.

Can't people ever stop going to extremes and just calm down on here!?

Oh, I forgot the UKMO. As far as I can see it has actually overracted the most to the signal in terms of taking the energy in the atlantic too far east. The GFS and the ECM have met in the middle and the UKMO is still out on a limb in this respect.

Edited January 31, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[john mac]

Looks like we're going to be stuck in between two cold air sources with neither managing to influence our weather unless something changes.

Is it me or does the 6Z look like it has a bit more undercut potential than the 00Zs? http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100131/06/78/h500slp.png

You beat me to it LS looks to me like a more favourable NW/SE tilt on the 6Z.

[KTtom]

What is slightly ironic, is that its the trough which moved into Scandinavia to bring us the northerly which ultimately is providing the brick wall preventing the easterly progressing westwards.

Edited January 31, 2010 by KTtom