Model Output Discussion

[aien aristeuein]

GFS falling into line with ECM and METO - the easterly is dead and buried now - a lesson learned reg FI charts - I remember reading a few years ago on here not to go beyond 144 hours when looking at models - Excellent advice.

Yes but if you went back just 24 hours on the 06gfs to 120 hrs I am not sure you could call it. From my untrained eye I would have said the situation from Tuesday to Friday is finely balanced and we could succomb to either continuing cold or a change to less cold and wet conditions. Who knows I think is the answer and that makes it all the more exciting for a newcomer - models are great but not the be all.

AA

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

look no further than 144

T96 is FI at the moment.

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Dont forget Ne England on this run were in the cold air much longer Wouldnt it be typical if tonight all models backtrack again towards a continental feed and tbh i wouldnt back against it Btw COME ON MURRAY!

yeah NE England and Scotland looking cold & wintry for much of the coming week, maybe the whole week and i'm still hoping the ukmo is being too progressive by pushing the low further north and swamping the uk in mild air, hopefully there will be some sort of battle as the 6z shows.

[john mac]

I refer to my earlier post re look no further for certainty than the ECM chart I posted. Like for cold forecast, any backslapping re mild outcome now nailed should hold on. 06z perfect example of what hasn't happened yet. With the ECM arctic ridge there is no clear sign on how far NE energy will get...and I still say as I did a few days ago the UKMO sends a way to far NE......lets see what develops tomorrow shall we. Look N and NW...that is where the block will build.

BFTP

I agree with you there mate, there is nothing set in stone for mildorfor cold yet, so everything to play for.IMO the atlantic dosent look particularly strong ATM which is in our favour, either way it wouldnt take a lot for either scenarios to come to fruition.

Edited January 31, 2010 by john mac

[swilliam]

ECM Op and Control right at the top of the ensembles but there are many more mild solutions now.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Cold air fighting back on the 6z but then I thought the gfs 00z was looking cold for the next week, especially ooop north with frost and snow, of course that's no consolation for members in the south as temps return to near average but I thought some members from scotland might have commented on this

Never post on here, just the regional thread; Lomond Snowstorm generally being our resident model thread spokesman.

We up north are generally not unhappy at all about prospects for the coming week. Many already have new snow and those in the central belt/borders who don't have pleasant frosty/sunny conditions.

I guess as Scotland can get snow from a larger number of set-ups, we don't suffer so much from the will it be beasterly/will it not problem.

Wishing all our southern neighbours (who want it) the best with respect to a good wintery return before the spring.

[Rollo]

Regarding the 6z it would appear that any mild weather is still for the future and we will be playing a waiting game from the middle of the week to see if any low undercuts and brings us back to what the cold lovers really want.As I have said before (being one of the older members here)this reminds me of borderline situations in the sixties when virtually at the last minute the cold air won and we had a period of freezing snowy weather (there I go dreaming again).

[Mark Bayley]

Well the 6z isn't exactly a horror show. Temps mostly around average for much of the run with one or two milder periods. It also shows the risk of some snow on Tuesday, Thursday and to high ground in the north during Saturday. Subject to change of course. Then the atlantic wins with it turning milder, for a time. As we head into FI temps return to normal with the low just sitting over us. Would gladly take this run. The ECM on the other hand is much milder.

Both models fit in with the teleconnections, as NSSC pointed out. Both show a -AO and Both show a -NAO, unfortunately it being west based as GP predicted. The Stratosphere is still warm and is not forecast to go below average. So the risk of blocking extends will in to February, and perhaps into march i would have though? :lol:

[Bobby]

Today's runs have delivered a severe blow to our chance of a cold spell in the near future. Still a chance we might get something but at the moment the easterly is 2-0 down with 10 minutes of the match it needs to win left on the clock.

[andymusic]

look no further than 144

totally agree - models are still at 6s and 7s - all over the place - only look a couple of days ahead

[High Altitude]

T96 is FI at the moment.

BFTP

At the most. T72 i feel is more realistic. After that there are just to many variables and the slightist change in allignment or pressure has massive implications down stream...in fact they determine the outcome of the whole run. Just look at the atlantic and scandi lows, the slighest change in trajectory to a more SE'ly direction and it's game on.

I notice also that within T72 the Artic high makes an appearance and the Greenland High is starting to build...from little acorns.... :lol:

[john mac]

At the most. T72 i feel is more realistic. After that there are just to many variables and the slightist change in allignment or pressure has massive implications down stream...in fact they determine the outcome of the whole run. Just look at the atlantic and scandi lows, the slighest change in trajectory to a more SE'ly direction and it's game on.

I notice also that within T72 the Artic high makes an appearance and the Greenland High is starting to build...from little acorns.... :lol:

Yep i noticed that, no blues either somenice green shades showing up :lol:

[pascalsbongo]

look no further than 144

I definatly second that.

The further you go beyond that,the chances lessen at an increasing rate.

If i could post a time/forecast accuracy characteristic curve on here, i would put beyond 144 as 20-30% max, sinking by 5 % per 24 hours.

However its nice to look at and it keeps us glued to the models.

As 10% chance is better than 0%.

[Bobby]

I don't think attacks on the ensembles are justified, remember that the main purpose of ensembles is to establish levels of uncertainty and the big spreads we've seen on ensembles recently indicated that were was always lots of uncertainty and it could go wrong.

[andymusic]

Today's runs have delivered a severe blow to our chance of a cold spell in the near future. Still a chance we might get something but at the moment the easterly is 2-0 down with 10 minutes of the match it needs to win left on the clock.

Still don't think this is sorted yet - only look a few days ahead - models still don't know where the blocking is gonna take us!

[Frosty.]

The ensembles are very fickle and can change with the blink of an eye, this is not resolved yet, the cold air will probably hold on in the north at least until the end of the coming week but possibly trending less cold/milder in the south later in the week.

[snowingtequila]

Today's runs have delivered a severe blow to our chance of a cold spell in the near future. Still a chance we might get something but at the moment the easterly is 2-0 down with 10 minutes of the match it needs to win left on the clock.

I do find it amusing that people are so busy looking at the models for a cold spell in 5 days time that they don't realise we are in a cold spell. The models suggest the easterly idea was not quite right, it never made sense to me anyway. I think another cold spell is more likely from the north. However, I am looking outside at 4 inches of snow and wondering if people expect too much if this cold spell we are under gets no discussion and its potential breakdown does not get a discussion this week which is more exciting that something so far away.

[Bobby]

I do find it amusing that people are so busy looking at the models for a cold spell in 5 days time that they don't realise we are in a cold spell. The models suggest the easterly idea was not quite right, it never made sense to me anyway. I think another cold spell is more likely from the north. However, I am looking outside at 4 inches of snow and wondering if people expect too much if this cold spell we are under gets no discussion and its potential breakdown does not get a discussion this week which is more exciting that something so far away.

We are in a cold snap now yes but most people have seen nothing but a few moderate frosts from this cold snap, as is often the case in these setups. Easterlies tend to deliver much more widely and so that's obviously why there's so much interest in one.

06z ensembles

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=193&ext=1&y=122&run=6&runpara=0

The most agreement I've seen for ages, unusually good agreement in fact for the next 10 days or so.

[Nights King]

We are in a cold snap now yes but most people have seen nothing but a few moderate frosts from this cold snap, as is often the case in these setups. Easterlies tend to deliver much more widely and so that's obviously why there's so much interest in one.

Very true I don't really call this a cold snap in central south western areas where we will see nothing as wales eats all those showers up and temperatures get as high as 4/5c in the towns! seems rather average really.

[Frosty.]

I do find it amusing that people are so busy looking at the models for a cold spell in 5 days time that they don't realise we are in a cold spell. The models suggest the easterly idea was not quite right, it never made sense to me anyway. I think another cold spell is more likely from the north. However, I am looking outside at 4 inches of snow and wondering if people expect too much if this cold spell we are under gets no discussion and its potential breakdown does not get a discussion this week which is more exciting that something so far away.

Fully agree, some can't even enjoy a cold spell when it's happening for fear of it ending. There is still another 4-6 days of cold weather to come, especially the further north you live and I continue to hope the ukmo has modelled the jet profile wrongly for later next week, the 6z is full of potential for the next 144-168 hours.

[Snowyowl9]

We are in a cold snap now yes but most people have seen nothing but a few moderate frosts from this cold snap, as is often the case in these setups. Easterlies tend to deliver much more widely and so that's obviously why there's so much interest in one.

Wales is certainly getting heavy showers today.

This says it all to me on the models today the wrong side of the block,a spell of wet SW-lys is imminent I`m facing facts something I don`t want but can`t do nothing about it.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

GFS 6z does delay it though,but I doubting even this will happen now.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

Make the most of these next 2 days.

Cold will probably come back sometime in the 2nd to 3rd week of feb

[Steve Edgefield]

We are in a cold snap now yes but most people have seen nothing but a few moderate frosts from this cold snap, as is often the case in these setups. Easterlies tend to deliver much more widely and so that's obviously why there's so much interest in one.

06z ensembles

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=193&ext=1&y=122&run=6&runpara=0

The most agreement I've seen for ages, unusually good agreement in fact for the next 10 days or so.

Am I missing something here - there seems to be quite a spread on the 850's from as early as T72 so I don't qute see where the agreement is?

[NorthernRab]

From the models and looking at the latest GFS, I think all this talk of the cold disappearing is a little too imby. It's probably best for us all if we consider the UK as a whole rather than our own areas, in parts of Scotland for example this outcome would result in potentially very heavy snowfall for the Highlands. In saying that, the GFS does love to over exaggerate areas of low pressure and this could be the turning point - where, when and how strong the low pressure will be will determine whether or not we can build a block. As many have said, this is going to be very tricky to tell and anything past 72 hours is still open to debate.

[J10]

The main Jet Stream remains well to the south of us for the most part, it's just these spin offs low pushing further north ahead of this causing the problem, as a result the Jet Stream is not as dominant, and this is not classic zonality.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I must admit, going of current model output, the prospect of having 3 conecutive below average winter months is looking a bit ropey ATM

It's sad to see some of the amazing model runs of the last week be swiped away from under our noses tbh as the GFS in particular was showing some circa -17 850s on its output for a time. Ahh well, let's not be too downbeat, it's only the weather eh

Edited January 31, 2010 by CreweCold