Why Warming Has Halted:

[Gray-Wolf]

How could we possibly forget this might be man-made warming when its constantly shoved down our throats.

But GW... I thought that all the ice was going to melt? Or is that not happening now? I can't keep up.

It's a pretty fine balance.

D.M. , much like the EAIS the collapse of the glacial dam that switched of the N.A.D./Gulf stream was humongous......I mean ,look at the features the out rush managed to calve up in the landscape!!!

For us to melt Greenland at the speed required would be to cut and paste the 'alleged' melt rates of the Himalayan ice cap's demise by 2030 which ,I say, just ain't gonna happen!

The trickle from the north will soon be augmented by a flood from the south (taking tens of years to 'equalise' across the oceans of the world) but that's all on the 'watery' side of things.......The south of our planet has already 'warmed' it's waters (just check out the sea anoms,month upon month, for the southern hemisphere) so any rapid 'coll' just 'normalises' things?

More water ,less salinity,more heat (captured and present) ,what then? Do I hear the skeptics plea of "water vapour is the biggest GHG....." on the wind?

And of The increase in 'black particulates ' from the far east? Getting less? and their GHG contributions? falling off?

You are to be blessed ,my friend, with the decade to test your beliefs. As much as nature is played to be throwing the 'cool down' (PDO phase,Low sunspots, low solar cycle, neg AO, et al) we'll have the temp records (and sea ice extents) to make sense of your pleas with.

This board will become bored dontcha think?

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Agreed. One way or another the next 10-15 years it will be sorted one way or another.

For the record, I don't contest the world has warmed, thats patently obvious, I do contest how it has warmed, and by how much. Also whether there is a plausible reason why it shouldn't stop warming. Natures vs Us I guess.

I think there will be some suprises.

[pyrotech]

Well alot of scientists are jumping off the CO2 ship, Some seem to have the integrity to re evaluate and check data.

The quotes and names are in the UK & Northwest Europe forum on here so will not post again.

The radiater theory is a good explanation of heat release from water. Everyone on here is aware that water changes temperature slower than air and that southern hemisphere is more water than Northern. What really matters now is the solar cycle, will the max be a low one?

Here is a link to some scientists who can be respected not just known skeptic like Piers C.

The list is over a year old, wonder how big it is today.

link to it

[noggin]

The radiater theory is a good explanation of heat release from water.

Yes. I liken the seas and oceans to a night-storage heater, in that the heat which has been garnered over a period of time is then released slowly, over a longer period of time. I feel that the past few years of a relatively inactive sun will cause the seas and oceans to cool, thus cooling Earth's climate, bearing in mind the effect of the time-lag. I believe it has already started.

I also believe that the climate shifts, thus giving different areas of the planet differing climates over a period of time.

(As always, this is not to say that we don't need to clean up our act re pollution.)

[sunny starry skies]

Yes. I liken the seas and oceans to a night-storage heater, in that the heat which has been garnered over a period of time is then released slowly, over a longer period of time. I feel that the past few years of a relatively inactive sun will cause the seas and oceans to cool, thus cooling Earth's climate, bearing in mind the effect of the time-lag. I believe it has already started.

I also believe that the climate shifts, thus giving different areas of the planet differing climates over a period of time.

(As always, this is not to say that we don't need to clean up our act re pollution.)

That's all wll and good, but so far as I am aware (and I posted on the subject a while back, think it was on general discussion board), the oceans are still gaining heat. So they may well act as radiators, but something's turning up the thermostat...

On the thread header... I've still seen no graph showing the halting of warming, and I've posted ad nauseum the link to Tamino's graphs on Open Mind ("riddle me this") showing how the warming is continuing exactly as it has done for three decades through this last decade of supposed "cooling", with wiggling about the mean, exactly as you would expect, up to the present. Nobody has shown why Tamino is wrong!

sss

[Methuselah]

At least with Global Cooling being so conspicuous by its absence, there's absolutely no need wasting any ENERGY trying account for it. Which, at the very least, ought to reduce emissions??? :lol:

And, noggin - when is this mysterious 'time lag' expected to come into effect? I'm not saying it won't (see my [limited] contributions to the LI thread) but, as of now, it hassn't revealed itself for study: it is an assumption!

[Gray-Wolf]

The more I hear about our planetary position (in terms of Milankovich type forcings) the more I wonder why we haven't been cooling for the past 2,500yrs?

Has our move into agriculture, and the land use changes it demands, spared us from the next ice age even before our recent GHG explosion?

Could it be that part of our current 'warming' is being spent on halting the global cool down that should be occurring?

Quite fortuitous for humanity if we find we have 'Geo-engineered' ourselves out of an icy grave eh?

[sunny starry skies]

The more I hear about our planetary position (in terms of Milankovich type forcings) the more I wonder why we haven't been cooling for the past 2,500yrs?

Has our move into agriculture, and the land use changes it demands, spared us from the next ice age even before our recent GHG explosion?

Could it be that part of our current 'warming' is being spent on halting the global cool down that should be occurring?

Quite fortuitous for humanity if we find we have 'Geo-engineered' ourselves out of an icy grave eh?

Look up the "anthropocene hypothesis" - Bill Ruddiman certainly thinks so! I saw a talk of his a while back and he was quite persuasive in his ideas. It's a difficult one to test, as you have to prove that this present interglacial is operating in a different way to previous ones - and they are all different in their forcings and responses. The other evidence he showed was a link between dips in a very high resolution CO2 record and global dips in human population over the last 2000 years - you need to look for times when large amounts of farmland/grazing have been abandoned and globally significant numbers of people died, so some obscure Chinese wars are there, as is the introduction of European diseases into the indigenous American (N and S) population. Interesting stuff, and only strengthens the link between GHGs and climate if verified.

sss

[Gray-Wolf]

Very interesting!

The fact that both CO2 and methane should have been falling for thousands of years demands some kind of explaination esp. as we can find no such anom. in past interglacials.

[Gray-Wolf]

In light of the ongoing global warmth (Jan was the warmest ever recorded) is it not time we altered the title of the thread to something more fitting like "The blind men and the Elephant"? LOL

[Methuselah]

Pete you're splitting hairs!! Yes water vapour is invisible (peer closely at the spout of a boiling kettle and you'll observe 'nothing' twixt the spout and the visible steam) - the invisible bit is water vapour and the steam is said water made visible as it cools upon hitting it's relatively cold surroundings ,but it's still there in either case! And before the mating of air and hexane in an engine,that water did not exist. I'm off to rebuild my carburettors ! IIRC,yes that's the right equation!

Thanks Barrie. Just being my irritatingly pedantic self, as usual!!!

[laserguy]

Thanks Barrie. Just being my irritatingly pedantic self, as usual!!!

Blimey Pete,that was a long time coming - but thanks anyway ! WRT water vapour, s'true that it wasn't there before the fusion of fuel and oxygen. Given that it's a much more effective GHG than CO2,how come the slant isn't more on reducing water emissions than CO2 ones ? No,seriously. The water produced has to go somewhere,and is never permanently re-absorbed,unlike CO2 (in plants etc). Just one of many,many reasons why the CO2-inspired global warming saga is quite obviously a sham. Imaging trying to hoodwink the knuckle-draggers of the world that water,plain ol'water would result in climate hell? Nah,use CO2 and it's attendant and necessary alien jargon and pseudo science,that'll do the trick. Having said that,I no more accept that,than any water creation/emission that we are capable of can affect climate to any degree whatsoever,let alone the relatively ineffective weakling CO2. As we've all acknowledged on here the good and valid reasons to reduce FF consumption,the real reasons for doing so to those who haven't yet figured it out,would be very welcome - instead of the usual nonsense which is akin to telling a troublesome child that the bogeyman in the wardrobe will come and eat him if he doesn't go to sleep...

Back OT... maybe all that water vapour which we have created from the burning of fossil fuels has finally resulted in increased cloud cover and blotted out the sun,stopping warming in it's tracks... nah,don't swallow that one,either! Expecting a deluge of replies as to how water vapour has been taken into account in the 'models' etc,but ask yourself why it is never,ever mentioned to the masses in anything climate-change related.

GW - get yourself a hoary old Zed thou with a hopped-out motor etc,get the blood flowing thru those constricting veins and feel the bugs in your teeth etc etc,and I guarantee you'll change your tune - if only in private ! Gotta go now - sixteen little valves to check amongst other things. Won't be long before the ol'girl hits the road - and I'm gonna thrash her til she squeals (ooh-er). Best make hay while the sun shines,or... make the most of it before such devices are banned in the name of saving the planet (yawn),or reality hits home and we're all wandering around in a real-life Mad Max fillum.

[sunny starry skies]

In light of the ongoing global warmth (Jan was the warmest ever recorded) is it not time we altered the title of the thread to something more fitting like "The blind men and the Elephant"? LOL

I believe November was the hottest ever as well, so that makes two of the last three months (december was close too). Am not sure we should be breaking such records regularly in a 'cooling world' :lol:

The idea of living in a 'Mad Max' world scares me rather more than driving an electric Zed :lol:

sss

[Gray-Wolf]

I believe November was the hottest ever as well, so that makes two of the last three months (december was close too). Am not sure we should be breaking such records regularly in a 'cooling world'

The idea of living in a 'Mad Max' world scares me rather more than driving an electric Zed

sss

Hi SSS!,

I've had too many 'What happened to global warming?'s recently ( just because it's cold in Europe and the U.S.) for me not to think of the old story as, it appears to me, these blind men seem to be grabbing at 'home' and calling it the world......

[laserguy]

The idea of living in a 'Mad Max' world scares me rather more than driving an electric Zed

sss

sss,I take it you've never piloted a 'Z' running stock frame and suspension ?

[Gray-Wolf]

sss,I take it you've never piloted a 'Z' running stock frame and suspension ?

The last 'Z1' I ever rode had a mono shock alteration and it's brother, the ZX, was un-modded and very pleasant .........sadly more of a Zephyr man these days.......

[cyclonic happiness]

what was the southern hemisphere doing during the last ice age does anyone know, or was it just a northern hemisphere thing?

P.s. i used to ride a 1977 z1000, I loved it, it was a twin shocker and would scare the hell out of me everytime I went above 75mph, the weave is legendary omg!

Edited February 10, 2010 by cyclonic happiness

[Gray-Wolf]

what was the southern hemisphere doing during the last ice age does anyone know, or was it just a northern hemisphere thing?

P.s. i used to ride a 1977 z1000, I loved it, it was a twin shocker and would scare the hell out of me everytime I went above 75mph, the weave is legendary omg!

LOL! Don't you just accelerate beyonds such issues???

The south get's hammered just like the North, it's just that there is a lot less land to be impacted by the ice.

(I use to own a Honda 750 K1 that used to 'skip' around corners......very 'change of underwear required' at times!)

(not mine U understand but of similar ilk [inc 'oil in tank'setup] image it ratty and matt black with a bananna seat and 'T' bars...... )

Edited February 10, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[sunny starry skies]

sss,I take it you've never piloted a 'Z' running stock frame and suspension ?

ha ha, no! motorbikes of any flavour aint really my thing, give me four wheels over two! I do like a Landie Defender in its natural off-road environment, but on roads I feel the twang of guilt as I watch the fuel gauge dropping as I drive (on the occasions I do, fieldwork and the like - I wouldn't have one for everyday use!)...

Glaciations - hit both hemispheres, though as G-W says there's less land to feel the impact. Large ice cap in the southern Andes for example, and Antarctic ice extending to the continental shelf in places.

sss

[osmposm]

......I've had too many 'What happened to global warming?'s recently ( just because it's cold in Europe and the U.S.)......

And perhaps worth noting this from the Phil Jones interview with the Beeb ( see here http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8511701.stm ): "He said many people had been made sceptical about climate change by the snow in the northern hemisphere - but they didn't realise that the satellite record from the University of Alabama in Huntsville showed it had been the warmest January since records began in 1979."

I also heard a TV commentator in Vancouver yesterday discussing the lack of low-level snow at the Olympics. According to him - and I have no references to back this up - it's been "the mildest winter here for a hundred years".

We in the UK may, perhaps, be entering a period of colder winters (I certainly hope so)......but never, EVER assume that local experience represents anything significant on a global scale.

[Methuselah]

If this year turns out to be the wamest on record (globally I mean) will 2010 be the favourite cherry-pick from now on?? Another 'cooling cycle' is only a year away...From a higher start-point of course!!

[Gray-Wolf]

But this time Pete we have records warmth in Australia (and ongoing drought) to silence their sceptics and a cold U.S./U.K. to throw back at our sceptics. I don't think 97/98 had anything but messed up 'Nino Weather. This Nino' ,and it's warmth, had a lot of competition from factors that cool the planet (the strongest -ve AO recorded?????) and yet still will manange to place the global temps in the top 5. Only a rising baseline temp can have this work in my way of thinking???

Edited February 19, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[Admiral_Bobski]

But this time Pete we have records warmth in Australia (and ongoing drought) to silence their sceptics and a cold U.S./U.K. to throw back at our sceptics. I don't think 97/98 had anything but messed up 'Nino Weather. This Nino' ,and it's warmth, had a lot of competition from factors that cool the planet (the strongest -ve AO recorded?????) and yet still will manange to place the global temps in the top 5. Only a rising baseline temp can have this work in my way of thinking???

We're not still on the "we must still be warming because we have top-5 high temps" argument, are we? I thought we'd gone through this, time and time and time and time and time and time again.

Fluctuations around a baseline occur in dynamic systems - just because the baseline has risen does not necessarily mean that it is rising. There is a difference. I'm not saying that temperatures are not still on the increase, I might add, just that your argument is spurious.

CB

Edited February 19, 2010 by Captain_Bobski

[VillagePlank]

We're not still on the "we must still be warming because we have top-5 high temps" argument, are we? I thought we'd gone through this, time and time and time and time and time and time again.

Fluctuations around a baseline occur in dynamic systems - just because the baseline has risen does not necessarily mean that it is rising. There is a difference. I'm not saying that temperatures are not still on the increase, I might add, just that your argument is spurious.

CB

Oooh - that's on my ever increasing list for the technical thread Good point, well made.

Time the AGWers showed their cards. I wonder what they will say when it is shown (i've done but need to by treble by treble by treble checking it) that Maxwell's equations are required to get the logarithmic relationship, but not with the Lorentz abstractions.

(This means, for those who don't know, if the Arrhenius equation holds because of Maxwell, there is room for manoever in free energy since the only reason we believe that's not the case is Lorentz's abstractions)

Who wants cold fusion on a flat earth then?

Edited February 19, 2010 by VillagePlank

[Gray-Wolf]

Fluctuations around a baseline occur in dynamic systems - just because the baseline has risen does not necessarily mean that it is rising. There is a difference. I'm not saying that temperatures are not still on the increase, I might add, just that your argument is spurious.

CB

Whaaaaa????

If we look at the title of the thread it screams to suggest that agreement on 'warming' is reached and that now the question is 'why has it halted'.

In 75 thousand years we may see a differing trend emerge and I'll be more likely to pay heed to your criticisms but whilst I see bare earth revealed that has been buried in ice for over 11 thousand years, whilst on the downward slope of a Milankovich, I have to say "Whaaaaa?"

I'm not being drawn by silliness guy's. We are looking at a very short period of time via our concerns of what we ,humanity, have done over that period. You cannot say "foul" because we are within a dynamic system, you cannot say "Foul" because we have to think on our feet.

Do you really think we have the luxury of the time your approach demands????