Coldest December & January On Record For Scotland

[Mondy]

Think this may be worth a thread of its own considering a UK weather record appears to have been broken.

Coldest December & January on record for Scotland since records began in 1914 - according to today's Countryfile forecast

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Ahhh, that be due to Global Warming no doubt !!

[Guest]

Maybe for Scotland, certainly not for England - just made a check on the figures and Dec '62 was +1.8C, whilst Jan '63 was -2.3C, so us lot down here need to go a little way to get lower than that figure - perhaps next winter?

[shuggee]

Think this may be worth a thread of its own considering a UK weather record appears to have been broken.

Coldest December & January on record for Scotland since records began in 1914 - according to today's Countryfile forecast

Indeed and it's certainly felt like it!

Splendid.

[Northernlights]

Well here on the farm we have made a big hole in our winter feed supplies especially with the sheep outside as for the last 2 decades or so we had got used to the grass growing all winter. In colder winters past usually started feeding outside sheep at the end of January when the grass was all used up but this winter had to start feeding at Christmas as deep frozen snow prevented the sheep scraping through to the grass,a record early date in my 36 year farming career. So I fully appreciate how cold and snowy it has been in the last 2 months.

More snow seems to be on the way tonight with big snow showers lining up to the north at dusk as per photo.

[damianslaw]

Very noteworthy indeed, highlighting the strength of cold in December in particular, however, quite surprised to see it beat Dec/Jan 63, I guess Scotland was more protected from the cold easterly winds off the continent during that period...

Mild conditions have not managed to penetrate into Scotland at any particular point since early Dec bar the last Wed. Unlike England and Wales, the cold started earlier in Scotland, with a very frosty period from the 11th, and conditions in the last week of Dec were very severe indeed unlike further south.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Brilliant to find out that in spite of constantly being told how much colder and snowier winters before I was born were, this year is the coldest in my grandfather's lifetime!

December started cool with some sleet and cold rain before getting a little milder, though I believe it was still fairly cool at night with maxima below 10C. From the 11th onwards, it was mainly cold and dry, albeit cloudy at times on the coast with occasional drizzle. It all changed on the 17th December, as easterly convective showers gave even CMD from Kilmacolm a dusting while Freuchie was left in prime position, receiving 7cm, while others in the east got about 5cm. As winds turned northerly and the trough moved south over the UK, Scotland endured a spell of snowfall more widespread, persistent and heavy than has been seen in a long time, with the northwest getting heavy snowfall on the 18th/19th, while virtually all of Aberdeenshire, Perthshire, central Scotland, Southwestern Scotland and the Borders seeing a few inches of snow on the 22nd and 23rd courtesy of 3 troughs moving across the country in 12 hours. Some extreme temperatures were recorded, with Tulloch Bridge dipping to -16C at 4pm on the 22nd at the same time areas further south were battered with snow! It turned quieter around Christmas, but a front moving up from the southwest hitting the cold surface air gave 18 inches of snow to parts of southern Perthshire and west Fife on the 27th. From then until New year it was a bit quieter, though Inverness recorded some very heavy snowfall on the 31st which cancelled Hogmanay celebrations there. The 2nd saw 5 inches of snow falling in the Edinburgh area from more easterly showers, and it stayed very cold with occasional snowfall until about the 10th in the east, when coastal modification lead to a drizzly thaw at 4C. Further west the thaw was slower, and all the while Cairngorm accumulated around 200cm of snow to keep the ski season through to spring (barring a 2 week southerly sourced from the Azores or very heavy rain at 8C). The slightly milder weather was never very sustained, with a mix of overcast drizzly cool weather and a few beautiful sunny days (mostly away from the east coast) before this northerly outbreak.

LS

[Mondy]

Actually, any links to this? I honestly only overheard it when Countryfile was on in the background.

[Supercell]

Exciting news. Would love to see some figures i.e. monthly means against previous years / records. I imagine the met office will publish something as this is rather remarkable.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Think this may be worth a thread of its own considering a UK weather record appears to have been broken.

Coldest December & January on record for Scotland since records began in 1914 - according to today's Countryfile forecast

Great news, especially for those in Scotland. I doubt any in their wildest dreams would have believed they would see this in 2010. In fact I'm sure if anyone even suggested this might be a possibility, back in, say November, they would have been completely dismissed as an ignorant cold ramper. I wonder what Ian Brown thinks about it, he has been very fair and constructive in his input of late - has he thrown in the towel for his theory of the M***** E** which, if I'm not mistaken, he claimed such a feat was actually impossible?

Anyway, it must be odd for any of those younger members up in Scotland to think they have just lived through the coldest winter in almost 100 years, if not more...

Has anyone got any statistics, for instance something similar to the CET but for Scotland, to compare this years temperatures to, such as 1962/63?

[Optimus Prime]

December 1962 for Scotland came in at 2.7c. almost a degere higher then England.

January 1963 came in at -1.1c.

So it was purely based on a very cold December last year which led to the coldest Dec/Jan on record. Bit of a fluke really.

[Snooz]

Maybe for Scotland, certainly not for England

with all due respect we know that :drunk:I think all this does say is that it's been an exceptional winter all over the UK in one way or another? even if not quite in YBY, the stories will abound for a few years - This is NOT a "normal" winter anywhere in the UK!

I believe from reading that your CET is also quite low compared to normal - and while our wee achievement might seem like nothing in comparison, I think the point is here that it is the longevity as opposed to any singular particular record. There's no one time that appears worse than a particular month, temp or storm, but much like the CET average, which is an average - we've been chatting about this since [16th or 17th] December - it's never really gone away for some parts, I personally have had continuous snowcover since then, not 100% admittedly but still that's different for MBY and will make mine and my sons memories - each place has their own occasion of note.. and those records we read about, I'm pretty sure they weren't UK wide?

It's been a ball [if somewhat cold], it's been a pleasure to be part of the excitment in general and even if it suddenly goes mild tomorrow and stays that way (which I doubt) - it is one to remember - enjoy what you have when you have it!

Mondy I'm not sure whre it actually states this but I believe it is th 50 day average that is being touted! 50 days!!

[cheeky_monkey]

would be interesting to see how December and January stack up as individual months rather than as a pair?

[Snooz]

December 1962 for Scotland came in at 2.7c. almost a degere higher then England.

January 1963 came in at -1.1c.

So it was purely based on a very cold December last year which led to the coldest Dec/Jan on record. Bit of a fluke really.

tsk tsk!

no fluke, just depends which particular singular record you want to look at .. cold spell or cold snap and even if Englands temps were a degree lower in a particular time frame I do believe an Easterly treats Scotland a little differently, maing it drier but not necessarily colder? - In [very] general (though I know it can be as marginal as anywhere) Northerly's bring us further north colder temps which I think you would agree that most further down south usually write off as being no good for cold? at least not sustained cold

instead of calling it "fluke" can't you just share the enjoyment as part of the fickleness of weather in the UK?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Great news, especially for those in Scotland. I doubt any in their wildest dreams would have believed they would see this in 2010. In fact I'm sure if anyone even suggested this might be a possibility, back in, say November, they would have been completely dismissed as an ignorant cold ramper. I wonder what Ian Brown thinks about it, he has been very fair and constructive in his input of late - has he thrown in the towel for his theory of the M***** E** which, if I'm not mistaken, he claimed such a feat was actually impossible?

Anyway, it must be odd for any of those younger members up in Scotland to think they have just lived through the coldest winter in almost 100 years, if not more...

Has anyone got any statistics, for instance something similar to the CET but for Scotland, to compare this years temperatures to, such as 1962/63?

Firstly, it feels incredibly odd but really amazing! Secondly, this is the set of mean temperatures for Scotland since 1914 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/Tmean/ranked/Scotland.txt

December came in at 0.3C, only beaten by 1950 (http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1950/Rrea00119501228.gif) and 1981, both sub zero months.

Not sure where January came in at, but I'd expect it to be another sub 1C month, and it would be the first since 1987. Some less talked of months like January 1984 were even colder, at 0.2C, which is probably the best example of widespread cold zonality I can give, barring the one-off '93 event. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840123.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00219840123.gif

Months like this are why people shouldn't get upset with the PV stuck in Greenland if there is no blocking to our south!

LS

December 1962 for Scotland came in at 2.7c. almost a degere higher then England.

January 1963 came in at -1.1c.

So it was purely based on a very cold December last year which led to the coldest Dec/Jan on record. Bit of a fluke really.

Not really. If January had even been nearly as 'mild' as 1982 then the record wouldn't have been broken. January was a cold month, nothing like January 1963 but probably 10th/15th coldest in series, but why does one of the months that make up a two month average coming in very cold make it a 'fluke'? If it had been the CET since 1914 which had the same record no one would vaguely regard it as somehow a fluke!

[Mondy]

tsk tsk!

instead of calling it "fluke" can't you just share the enjoyment as part of the fickleness of weather in the UK?

No, he can't. Typical OP reply really, and I wouldn't worry too much. He and I exchanged PM's recently - was vy interesting to see he was a closet warmer

Anyway, thanks LSS for the continued thoughtful and insightful replies you make. We have broken a record, buddy and we all posted on it at the time in the regional Scotland thread - BTW since when was Scotland a region, LOL?

[Mondy]

would be interesting to see how December and January stack up as individual months rather than as a pair?

For Scotland it's quite easy:

1) well below average in Dec

2) below average in Jan

Can't really get any simpler than that.

[Optimus Prime]

He and I exchanged PM's recently - was vy interesting to see he was a closet warmer

Lol closet warmer? Perhaps But I'm afraid 1 cold record with no individual months breaking records doesn't to me make the warming statements any less bright.

[LomondSnowstorm]

For Scotland it's quite easy:

1) well below average in Dec

2) below average in Jan

Can't really get any simpler than that.

Lol, brilliant! Couldn't have put it better myself!

[damianslaw]

The media largely ignored the depth of cold in Scotland during December, probably because England and Wales in comparison saw unexceptional depths of cold.

I certainly remember thinking Scotland must be having a very bitter time with numerous ice days being recorded. The Highlands saw a run of very cold nights indeed.

Here in Cumbria the second half of Dec was the coldest since 1995, had we not seen the slight thaw at the end of December it would have been the coldest since 1981. January has been the coldest since 1987, however, what we must remember with January is that after 1987 the next most recent cold Jan was 1997 at a mere 2.5 degrees, showing how mild most Januaries have been in the past 20 years.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's important to bear in mind that global temperatures have only gone up by about 0.6C or so over the last 100 years. Given the large range of natural variability that can arise from differing synoptics, a 0.6C rise surely does not prevent cold records from occurring- it just makes them less frequent than warm ones. So I don't think this cold record says anything about (A)GW except that as yet it hasn't prevented Britain from receiving very cold and snowy winter months.

Many of the cold winters of the past have had mainly easterly winds and continental air, giving much colder weather over England and Wales than over Scotland. This winter, on the other hand, has seen its cold spells delivered by a combination of northerlies, and easterlies with a "northerly" source (such that the coldest air has often been reserved for Scotland even though the winds were easterly). Hence the cold anomalies have been similar or greater over Scotland.

[Iceni]

Congratulations to all north of the Border… watching Countryfile film of the Caingorms tonight made the northern part of our island look like Arctic wastes — wow!

But do the records really only go back to 1914 (as I understood from the news) or was that the second lowest temperature recorded in Scotland?

It's important to bear in mind that global temperatures have only gone up by about 0.6C or so over the last 100 years. Given the large range of natural variability that can arise from differing synoptics, a 0.6C rise surely does not prevent cold records from occurring- it just makes them less frequent than warm ones. So I don't think this cold record says anything about (A)GW except that as yet it hasn't prevented Britain from receiving very cold and snowy winter months.

Many of the cold winters of the past have had mainly easterly winds and continental air, giving much colder weather over England and Wales than over Scotland. This winter, on the other hand, has seen its cold spells delivered by a combination of northerlies, and easterlies with a "northerly" source (such that the coldest air has often been reserved for Scotland even though the winds were easterly). Hence the cold anomalies have been similar or greater over Scotland.

There's a paper published in Science which says the importance of water vapour in the stratosphere has a much more important role in temperatures than realized.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1246904/Water-vapour-responsible-slowdown-global-warming.html

[NorthernRab]

The very heavy snow on Hogmanay really delivered for Inverness in particular, strong NErly winds pushed down the Moray Firth causing consistent heavy snow. There was a 10 minute period, which I'm sure Pete should also remember, which gave the heaviest snowfall I had ever seen in my life, and I've seen an Alpine blizzard!

Certainly the coldest winter for the Highlands, although we failed to beat any significant records, there were a few days when some were talking about temperatures perhaps approaching -30'C or at least -25'C, but alas, no - just -22.3'C.

[Methuselah]

Yep. I remember it well, NR!!!

Like TWS has pointed-out, there was often a northerly component to the wind, bringing cold air over warm water: the result? Bucket-loads of snow! Couple that with several still nights and - Bob's your uncle...All-in-all, far better than the non-event that was February 1991!!!

On another note: there's no need for any references to who may, or may not, be a 'closet warmer.' It's irrelevant...There are several topics on CC and (A)GW already!

[Yozzer]

As a sage once said, there are lies, there are damn lies, and there are statistics! We've seen deeper snow on occasions even in the past 10 years, and lower absolute temps, but its the length of the winter so far that is remarkable.

Whatever the arguments, this winter so far has in certain ways up here reminded me of the New England winter. Over there what normally happens is that the ground starts to freeze from about mid November onwards, so any snow that falls thereafter stays, even with the occasional milder interlude. Thats why the snowpack persists for 4 to 5 months.

Here the ground froze early in December, layers of snow built up (recorded over 2ft level at one stage early new year), and despite brief interludes, the snowpack easily absorbed the rain. The ground remained, and still remains, frozen under the fresh snowcover of the last few days. We have now had 7 weeks of continuous snow cover in our garden. Whatever the statistics say, the spell has been quite remarkable.