Coldest December & January On Record For Scotland

[Mondy]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8492333.stm

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://news.bbc.co.u...and/8492333.stm

Now that's an article I never thought I would read - something incredible has happened this winter in Scotland and all of us on the Scottish thread were there to see it, look at the synoptics of it and predict the whereabouts and amounts of snowfall based on the brilliant combo of radar, NMM and lamping!

[Polar Gael]

Even if we get no further cold in February (and I think that is highly unlikely), it has been an absolutely superb winter for coldies.

All the better for having our own Nw Scotland place to hang out and chat. Much kudos to all the great contributors who made this such a grand place to drop by over the past couple of months.

Now, the question is: do last winter and this winter represent a blip or the beginning of a trend?

I know what my money's on - but, as ever, time will tell!

[Weather-history]

I'm surprised the records only go back to 1914, as I have data for some Scottish locations going back into the Victorian era.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It will be referring to the Met Office's "nationwide" datasets, all of which go back to 1914. There is no Scottish equivalent to the CET, but certainly some stations will go back well into the 1800s.

[cuckoo]

Although Scotland has had the coldest combined December and January on record, temperatures would need to go lower to beat the coldest two month winter combination. January and February in 1963 was the coldest on record north of the border.

The BBC article pointing out that 1963 was colder when January and February are combined as the cold came later in the year then.

Still a really impressive sustained period of cold for those North of the border. Something that would not have looked too out of place much further East in Europe. Saw some spectacular photos from the spell and confess to being a tad jealous of those who got to experience it.

[RedShift]

Mean temp. of January now confirmed as 0.1 C, the coldest since 1979 (-1.0) and the eighth coldest since 1914. It is beaten by Januarys from:

1952 -0.1

1959 -0.4

1979 -1.0

1940 -1.0

1963 -1.1

1945 -1.1

1941 -1.1

The five coldest winters (i.e. Dec - Feb) are:

1963 0.16

1979 0.45

1947 0.53

1941 0.87

1951 0.93

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/Tmean/date/Scotland.txt

[LomondSnowstorm]

Mean temp. of January now confirmed as 0.1 C, the coldest since 1979 (-1.0) and the eighth coldest since 1914. It is beaten by Januarys from:

1952 -0.1

1959 -0.4

1979 -1.0

1940 -1.0

1963 -1.1

1945 -1.1

1941 -1.1

The five coldest winters (i.e. Dec - Feb) are:

1963 0.16

1979 0.45

1947 0.53

1941 0.87

1951 0.93

http://www.metoffice...te/Scotland.txt

Thanks for that. With December at 0.3C and January at 0.1C, a beasterly like the one proposed on the ECM followed by a cold high would surely give us a chance of getting to a sub 1C month and therefore the second coldest winter since Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated.

[Devon-Nelly]

I've not seen any comments from the Meto about this yet but will be intreasting to see what they say, but i think it's amazing that these two months have gone down on record i never thought i'd see the day when the word "cold" and "record" came in the same sentence.

You guys must have amazing data up there from Dec & Jan.

[Mondy]

Devon-N.

Been thinking this too. The absolute lack of interest or input in this is astonishing. As you say, records have been beaten, the cold spell has practically never really left Scotland since mid-December, yet it's undocumented in its fullest.

[Optimus Prime]

It's always a good deal colder in Scotland.

[ScottSnow]

Although I don't live in Scotland. I do like to go skiing there so I keep a keen eye on the snow conditions. This year its been excellent since mid December.

Here in Newcastle this winter has been remarkable as well. There's been 25 to 30 days of lying snow so far, numerous ice days and a max depth of around 1ft of snow. Certainly the best winter so far in my lifetime (I'm 23) and hopefully there will be more cold weather to come in Feb and March.

Edited February 3, 2010 by Snow White

[LomondSnowstorm]

It's always a good deal colder in Scotland.

Can't argue really with that one but in terms of snowfall the area I live in has comparable snowfall to parts of the midlands in terms of amounts and frequency, so having, I believe 32 days of snow falling here is exceptional. Easterlies also deliver far better than northerlies in this neck of Scotland, so I do get a bit annoyed when people discuss an easterly as if it's a southeast-only event and discuss a northerly as if 'northern and eastern Scotland' do well from it - Inverness doesn't get snow from a typical northerly, nor does Dundee, Edinburgh or Perth, or Aberdeen to an extent if the flow is stable.

Anyway, the coldest Dec/Jan on record means the coldest ever recorded (since 1914) in Scotland, so even with acknowledging that it's always a good deal colder here it was also a good deal colder than the usual - now that's cold! 0.2C 2 month average, though lower in eastern Scotland, in fact January was -0.4C here. Mondy is right - if this had afflicted the southern half of the country (and I'm not including northern Ireland, northern England or most of Wales in this either) it would most definitely have been covered a lot more - or would it? Would the media wish to admit this and have the perception that AGW was occuring weakened (not that individual temperature records necessarily mean anything, though in the heatwave of '03 it certainly seemed to, as it did in that last flooding event where the head of SEPA claimed all weather was now 'man-made')?

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Can't argue really with that one but in terms of snowfall the area I live in has comparable snowfall to parts of the midlands in terms of amounts and frequency, so having, I believe 32 days of snow falling here is exceptional. Easterlies also deliver far better than northerlies in this neck of Scotland, so I do get a bit annoyed when people discuss an easterly as if it's a southeast-only event and discuss a northerly as if 'northern and eastern Scotland' do well from it - Inverness doesn't get snow from a typical northerly, nor does Dundee, Edinburgh or Perth, or Aberdeen to an extent if the flow is stable.

Anyway, the coldest Dec/Jan on record means the coldest ever recorded (since 1914) in Scotland, so even with acknowledging that it's always a good deal colder here it was also a good deal colder than the usual - now that's cold! 0.2C 2 month average, though lower in eastern Scotland, in fact January was -0.4C here. Mondy is right - if this had afflicted the southern half of the country (and I'm not including northern Ireland, northern England or most of Wales in this either) it would most definitely have been covered a lot more - or would it? Would the media wish to admit this and have the perception that AGW was occuring weakened (not that individual temperature records necessarily mean anything, though in the heatwave of '03 it certainly seemed to, as it did in that last flooding event where the head of SEPA claimed all weather was now 'man-made')?

As someone who lives in the SE of England I agree very much with your post. There would have been a major fuss (edit: neurosis) down here if we had experienced the same continuity of cold as north of the border.

Even if for the first half of Jan it was very cold and snowy here.

It is a pity because it does us natives of this part of the world no favours and currys no popularity! Not all of us wish to be tarred with that overly snooty self important imby brush!

Edited February 4, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[RedShift]

Anyway, the coldest Dec/Jan on record means the coldest ever recorded (since 1914) in Scotland, so even with acknowledging that it's always a good deal colder here it was also a good deal colder than the usual - now that's cold! 0.2C 2 month average, though lower in eastern Scotland, in fact January was -0.4C here. Mondy is right - if this had afflicted the southern half of the country (and I'm not including northern Ireland, northern England or most of Wales in this either) it would most definitely have been covered a lot more - or would it? Would the media wish to admit this and have the perception that AGW was occuring weakened (not that individual temperature records necessarily mean anything, though in the heatwave of '03 it certainly seemed to, as it did in that last flooding event where the head of SEPA claimed all weather was now 'man-made')?

Curiously enough (or is it?) Scottish winters are responding least to the overall warming trend since 1914. The 10-year running mean is certainly higher now than it has been, but the 30-year running mean has only just sneaked above late 1940s levels. Most of the warming is being displayed in autumn and spring time.

Winters are certainly becoming wetter, both the 10- and 30-year running means have been at their highest levels on record since the late 1980s.

The linear trend for sunshine is down, but since the late 1990s, the 10-year running mean has climbed back to its peak last seen in the early 1960s.

So Scottish winters since 1914: slightly warmer, wetter and less sunny, but sunshine has been increasing for the last ~10 years.

Anyway, I'm moving to Cambridge in a few months, so this time next year I may well be getting excited about TEITS's beasterlies...I'll keep monitoring seagull activity for you all

[ScottSnow]

This is what the conditions have been like in Scotland this winter...

None of these were shot after 3rd Jan I beleive so you can only imagine what conditions were like by the 10/11/12th after even more snow.

Edited February 4, 2010 by Snow White

[NorthernRab]

Can't argue really with that one but in terms of snowfall the area I live in has comparable snowfall to parts of the midlands in terms of amounts and frequency, so having, I believe 32 days of snow falling here is exceptional. Easterlies also deliver far better than northerlies in this neck of Scotland, so I do get a bit annoyed when people discuss an easterly as if it's a southeast-only event and discuss a northerly as if 'northern and eastern Scotland' do well from it - Inverness doesn't get snow from a typical northerly, nor does Dundee, Edinburgh or Perth, or Aberdeen to an extent if the flow is stable.

I'm going to have to disagree with you there LS mate, a straight northerly is best for snow in Inverness except from a NEly of course (snow intensifies in the firth etc). There's nothing really in the way of Aberdeen and Inverness (topographically) to stop these cities getting heavy snow in a northerly other than a bit of distance across Caithness and the Black Isle in Sneck's case and Aberdeenshire in Aberdeen's case.

[Rollo]

This is what the conditions have been like in Scotland this winter...

None of these were shot after 3rd Jan I beleive so you can only imagine what conditions were like by the 10/11/12th after even more snow.

I was in granton during mid-October-but I just could not recognise the place from that great clip-lovely jubbly!!

Edited February 4, 2010 by Rollo

[ScottSnow]

And another from the 6th Jan.

[NorthernRab]

I was in granton during mid-October-but I just could not recognise the place from that great clip-lovely jubbly!!

Some wee villages from the Cairngorms:

Tomintoul:

Glenlivet:

Carrbridge:

Nethy Bridge:

[ScottSnow]

Excellent pics Rab

[NorthernRab]

Doesn't between that 70s (78 I think...) blizzard in the Highlands Snow White!

Edited February 4, 2010 by NorthernRab

[Guest]

Easterlies also deliver far better than northerlies in this neck of Scotland, so I do get a bit annoyed when people discuss an easterly as if it's a southeast-only event and discuss a northerly as if 'northern and eastern Scotland' do well from it - Inverness doesn't get snow from a typical northerly, nor does Dundee, Edinburgh or Perth, or Aberdeen to an extent if the flow is stable.

As experience of this winter shows LS a northerly brings only the slightest of risks of snow where I live while an easterly delivers as far west as where I live. So I would actually go as far as to say that for the majority of the population in Scotland an easterly is far more likely to bring snow than a northerly. Perhaps to a proportion of 80-20 in favour of an easterly.

However, this is not to say that for the majority of the land mass of Scotland that an easterly is far better than a northerly, although I suspect 60-40 in favour of easterlies in this case.

I do, however, think that northerlies are more frequent than easterlies, so it seems that Scotland overall will get more snow from Northerlies simply because they are more common.

As for this whole coldest Dec and Jan for Scotland thing, the most amazing thing about this record is that in many areas (mine included) December and January were not the coldest months recorded, but the duration of the cold allowed a combo tag team to beat all other consecutive Dec-Jan months. The way that February has started it is looking like a slam dunk for one very cold winter :lol:

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm going to have to disagree with you there LS mate, a straight northerly is best for snow in Inverness except from a NEly of course (snow intensifies in the firth etc). There's nothing really in the way of Aberdeen and Inverness (topographically) to stop these cities getting heavy snow in a northerly other than a bit of distance across Caithness and the Black Isle in Sneck's case and Aberdeenshire in Aberdeen's case.

Sorry, made an error there. It was Pete on the thread talking about something not delivering and though I assumed it was northerly it was in fact a NWesterly!

As experience of this winter shows LS a northerly brings only the slightest of risks of snow where I live while an easterly delivers as far west as where I live. So I would actually go as far as to say that for the majority of the population in Scotland an easterly is far more likely to bring snow than a northerly. Perhaps to a proportion of 80-20 in favour of an easterly.

However, this is not to say that for the majority of the land mass of Scotland that an easterly is far better than a northerly, although I suspect 60-40 in favour of easterlies in this case.

I do, however, think that northerlies are more frequent than easterlies, so it seems that Scotland overall will get more snow from Northerlies simply because they are more common.

True enough Catch. Mind you, northerlies which are very disturbed with shortwave features and troughs etc. can deliver quite widely with either a slight NW/NE tilt.

LS

[Thundery wintry showers]

As someone who lives in the SE of England I agree very much with your post. There would have been a major fuss (edit: neurosis) down here if we had experienced the same continuity of cold as north of the border.

Even if for the first half of Jan it was very cold and snowy here.

It is a pity because it does us natives of this part of the world no favours and currys no popularity! Not all of us wish to be tarred with that overly snooty self important imby brush!

I think the problem is as much "urban" as it is "southern" so I imagine the people in your part of the country would cope much better than in the Greater London area. The trouble is there's the strong association of the southeast with London so other areas do get unfairly lumped together.

Also, while the southeast generally doesn't cope well with snow, I think the media makes it appear to cope even worse than it actually does, by exaggerating the extent of the problems that the snow causes and ignoring all of the benefits that it brings. This was particularly noticeable in the North-East England coverage in early January. Many of us were just getting on with our lives, with perhaps the odd few days off work when the snow got particularly deep, some of us were getting fed up of the snow while others were enjoying it. But if you'd believed the local news you'd have thought we were all freezing to death and trapped indoors and seeing the snow as "disgraceful", to quote a couple of people who they selectively interviewed.

For Scotland as a whole, I think the most reliable setups are "northerly" oriented with high pressure to the NW, but have winds from W/NW or NE/E allowing showers to feed well inland, in contrast to a straight northerly where the "wishbone effect" comes into play due to the Scottish Highlands nicking all of the showers. An easterly with continental air is often no good as the coldest upper air is reserved for further south, meaning sunshine and snow showers for the SE but cloudy warmer weather in Scotland.