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Model Output Discussion:


Ed Stone

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Looks like a week where changeable is going to be the correct word. Spells of rain with hill snow in scotland temps alternating between cold to average/mild.

    Deep FI will attract the beast from east lovers as gfs plays around with the idea again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

    Looks like a week where changeable is going to be the correct word. Spells of rain with hill snow in scotland temps alternating between cold to average/mild.

    Deep FI will attract the beast from east lovers as gfs plays around with the idea again.

    And the ECM has totally backtracked to cold for the end of the week!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    OMG!!! Can somebody please explain yesterday's model "throwing out of the toys" because they are practically the same as 3 days ago??!!!

    The meto even looks like it's going to evolve into something now??

    I'm really confused?! :drinks:

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

    Just had a quick look before going off to school

    ECM: gradually turning milder towards the weekend, before turning much colder next week with winds from the East, North East.

    GFS: gradually turning milder towards the weekend, Turning cooler next week, much colder towards the end of the week.

    UKMO: Milder towards the weekend

    Sorry for being rather brief, better be off smile.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    First of all http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

    We were told it wasn't neccesarily blowtorch!!

    GFS doesn't like it but it's still in the dog house for leading us astray (though the ECM did at times as well). http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

    And the UKMO has potential also http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

    Perhaps we should congratulate those who haven't actually congratulated anyone for getting it right based on +120 hour charts!

    These outputs make sense to me though, as the GFS is usually over-progressive when it comes to introducing cold spells, but also tends to overcook low pressure systems.

    The 12Zs will be intruiging

    LS

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Well the ECM 00z has come as a complete surprise to me, I was sure we would be staring down the barrel at a week or two of relatively mild conditions and that might still be the case but this run brings back happy memories of last week's models as they were gearing up for a mega FI cold spell. The ecm run would deliver severe cold with snow showers and penetrating frosts, lets hope it has support because Darren Bett said turning much milder from thurs/fri onwards which is not really what the ecm shows :drinks:

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    Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

    I wonder if the 18z picked up something last night and the Ecm is getting the same signal oh here we go again on the rollercoaster.Keep strapped in!whistling.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    yes i agree well done to those who know there stuff:drinks:

    right slightly off topic i woke up and this tiny little cloud just gave us a dusting here on the soutcoast woop woop love it i love suprises.

    anyway talking of suprises the models once again want to bring back the cold,

    now this is what im seeing absolutely milder weather is on the way,

    but its not clear cut because cold wants to hold on to our east with a possible 3rd round knockout from the cold,

    i still have a litttle confidence of cold returing in the next 5 to 10 days.

    there is something in the teleconnection thats afoot this is where my confidence builds for cold how long it takes is another story but i think theres a sting in the tail,

    if the alantic completely dominates pushing milder air into thr heart of europe including nothern europe id say game over but i cant see this happening after all blocking has been very robust this year and this is the key to cold in feb.

    there is a little hope in the ecm this morning.

    Well the ECM 00z has come as a complete surprise to me, I was sure we would be staring down the barrel at a week or two of relatively mild conditions and that might still be the case but this run brings back happy memories of last week's models as they were gearing up for a mega FI cold spell. The ecm run would deliver severe cold with snow showers and penetrating frosts, lets hope it has support because Darren Bett said turning much milder from thurs/fri onwards which is not really what the ecm shows :cold:

    its funny you say about darren bett lastnight jay on bbc news 24 said he felt the cold would return it makes me wonder if hes got his own models lol.:drinks:

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I wonder if the 18z picked up something last night and the Ecm is getting the same signal oh here we go again on the rollercoaster.Keep strapped in!whistling.gif

    Let's hope it's not another false dawn, irrespective of what happens from the weekend onwards, there will be a spell of heavy snow across northern england and scotland during wed/thurs before milder weather pushes north.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    I really don't know whether to laugh or cry at the model output although im not actually that surprised if you read my post late last night.

    The difference in the models this morning is they transfer some of the energy from the Atlantic trough SE rather thsn NE and this allows the block to the N to influence our weather. We then see the trough on the ECM back W but we also see further LP tracking SE. The UKMO might not be as promising as the ECM but even this is backtracking wrt to energy moving SE rather than NE.

    I tell you what at the moment the outlook is very uncertain and whether you prefer cold or mild nobody can say either way at the moment. Ignore the ensembles because the operationals will show the way upto +144.

    I will add that often the models are reluctant to show SW tracking SE until they enter the +72 timeframe. Why this is could be due to models always underestimating the blocking to the NE.

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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

    I should imagine some are choking on their cornflakes this morning after looking at the

    0z ECM run. The Passage I posted yesterday from American met Larry Cosgrove refering

    to a vortex setting up over the area aroung Nova Scotia seems to be supported by the

    ECM run especially, with the energy in the north Atlantic being pulled back west as high

    pressure to the north extends south.

    I must admit I did not expect to see such a big flip from the models so quickly but that

    the 8th onwards was still looking very good for the start of a prolonged and potent

    cold spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    there is a little hope in the ecm this morning.

    its funny you say about darren bett lastnight jay on bbc news 24 said he felt the cold would return it makes me wonder if hes got his own models lol.:drinks:

    Another good thing about the 00z output is that the other models are slowly coming around to a colder outlook so some new signal has hopefully been found, I missed the 18z last night but gather it had a chilly FI, fingers crossed...he just said it again...much milder by the end of the week :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I thinks that's a fair summary, Dave. :cold:

    If only we could 'see' all the models, teleconnections etc. somehow merged into one??. Anhyoo, my view is that, until Spring-proper arrives, everything will (pardon the pun) remain up in the air... :drinks:

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    Posted
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme winter cold,heavy bowing snow,freezing fog.Summer 2012
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet

    Well another week and another week of mystery surrounding the easterly by the looks of it. The ECM wants to bring it back at T120, not completely surprised by this, as all the models have been hinting at height rises over Greenland through the weekends milder runs, so there was always a chance of the lows digging futher south than shown.

    As Ian says, probably the ECM is one of the coldest members from the ensembles, but then again, the operational mild runs from last week were on there own, so people weren’t to worried at first.

    The GFS also toys with bringing back the easterly, but waits until T180.

    Fascinating times watching the models.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    I must admit I did not expect to see such a big flip from the models so quickly but that

    the 8th onwards was still looking very good for the start of a prolonged and potent

    cold spell.

    I tell you what CC in all my years of model watching I have never seen +144 change so much over the last 48hrs. Expect anything from tonights 12Zs is my motto this morning. Whats laughable is these changes aren't in F.I but within +96/+144.

    I do have symptathy for the Met O because these situations have always been a nightmare for forecasters and will continue in the future until these models resolve their problems wrt blocking.

    I thinks that's a fair summary, Dave. :cold:

    If only we could 'see' all the models, teleconnections etc. somehow merged into one??. Anhyoo, my view is that, until Spring-proper arrives, everything will (pardon the pun) remain up in the air... :drinks:

    Make life much easier mate.

    I know for a fact come next winter im not going through all this again. Im going to focus only upto +144 and never bother commenting beyond. Simple reason is I can't be bothered with the uncertainity but I would also like my posts to have more detail rather than looking at the overall trend.

    There is no doubt the models have picked up on a new signal i.e SW tracking SE rather than NE. Having said this they were showing this a few days ago.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    I thinks that's a fair summary, Dave. :good:

    If only we could 'see' all the models, teleconnections etc. somehow merged into one??. Anhyoo, my view is that, until Spring-proper arrives, everything will (pardon the pun) remain up in the air... :drinks:

    you aint kidding pete up in the air is a little kind lol.

    your talking 12 hours and theres dramatic changes perhapes the chance of cold never went away in the first place maybe if we had extra hours on the outputs then we might of seen it futher in fi,

    although i would not want extra hours lmao.

    also perhapes dissapointment clouded judgement although i am quick to call winter over before its even started,

    ive lernt alot of lessons be weary of fi.

    we also have to remember last week we had every model going for the beast then in 24 hours it was gone,

    but it was there perhapes there coming back to the idear,

    it makes sense because all the time a robust block like that is to our east add the up and coming teleconnection sww ect ect,

    then perhapes its a possible outcome.:cold:

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    Hi

    I've been lurking for a while and have decided to join because I'm wondering if anyone can help me.

    I live in France and the main TV channels get their weather from Météo France. Does anyone know what models Météo France use? Do they have their own?

    The presenter on TF1 last night said it's going to be milder from Wednesday but that "winter is most certainly not over yet". I'm wondering what models she would have looked at to say that given the METO and GFS models over the weekend.

    Thanks

    N

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    I've done some drawings this morning on the ECM charts to show members what they need to look out for in futher model runs.

    Here is the +96 ECM chart.

    post-1766-12650142610488_thumb.jpg

    I have highlighted the area you need to look out for. What we have here is called trough disruption although I tend to refer to this as a splitting LP. As you can see this shortwave starts tracking SE.

    Moving onto +144. Look at (A) this is the SW that tracked SE at +96. Now B is the LP you see centred over Wales at +120. This also moves SE and because of this the HP C to our N is allowed to ridge S. The knock on effect of this beyond +144 is further SW track SE and the Atlantic trough (D) begins to back W.

    post-1766-12650142844488_thumb.jpg

    As myself and Nick said the other day its either a mild SW,ly or a cold E,ly with no inbetween. Simply put the SW have to track SE rather than NE. If this occurs as the ECM shows then what happens beyond +144 is perfectly plausible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Cary somerset
  • Location: Castle Cary somerset

    I think its generally around from the weekend that is unclear. GEFS ems are really good this morning. esp further north and east you are. you can see there is a huge split in the ems like all the main models giving us all headakes in the proceses.

    Times like this if you find a good run like the ECM just think it could easliy back track to a mild solution again..... Model to watch is the ukmo at the moment....

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Very nice ECM....now who said that beyond T96 is sorted. This ECM change is NOT a surprise to me...interesting to see where the models go from here. Remember, southerly jet to dominate, look N and NW for blocking developments..those are the signals I have and placed on my monthly update..T96 IS FI and the model output is certainly bearing this out. Patiently waiting for 12z and now 00z tonight.

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

    The 18z GFS run last night did show that something maybe afoot with everything

    being pulled back west. It could well be that what we saw from the models over the

    weekend was nothing more than a wobble really. I will stick my neck out and say

    I can not see the ECM backtracking again now especially since the evolution to cold

    takes place in the t120 to t144 time frame.

    Just to add what a beaut of a chart the ECM t240 chart is. what would you say

    temps of -2 to -3c max and heavy powder snow. lovely.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    I've done some drawings this morning on the ECM charts to show members what they need to look out for in futher model runs.

    Here is the +96 ECM chart.

    post-1766-12650142610488_thumb.jpg

    I have highlighted the area you need to look out for. What we have here is called trough disruption although I tend to refer to this as a splitting LP. As you can see this shortwave starts tracking SE.

    Moving onto +144. Look at (A) this is the SW that tracked SE at +96. Now B is the LP you see centred over Wales at +120. This also moves SE and because of this the HP C to our N is allowed to ridge S. The knock on effect of this beyond +144 is further SW track SE and the Atlantic trough (D) begins to back W.

    post-1766-12650142844488_thumb.jpg

    As myself and Nick said the other day its either a mild SW,ly or a cold E,ly with no inbetween. Simply put the SW have to track SE rather than NE. If this occurs as the ECM shows then what happens beyond +144 is perfectly plausible.

    nice stuff there eye.

    one thing gp noted that he felt presure building from the south or southwest and pushing north it looks like thats happening on that chart it would be a very slow process to get cold i agree,

    although if low pressure does sink se that would hold that back.

    also is that heights building around greenland?

    cheers:drinks:

    just gonna pop some prozac lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    nice stuff there eye.

    one thing gp noted that he felt presure building from the south or southwest and pushing north it looks like thats happening on that chart it would be a very slow process to get cold i agree,

    although if low pressure does sink se that would hold that back.

    also is that heights building around greenland?

    cheers:drinks:

    just gonna pop some prozac lol.

    I doubt pressure will rise from the S if we do see SW tracking S. If anything is the HP pressure to our N become influencial.

    The period in question i.e +96/+144 really is impossible to forecast at the moment. However if the 12Zs go the same way as the 0Z ECM then the cold E,ly is back on.

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