Model Output Discussion:

[Frosty.]

I am much more bullish and optimistic about the prospects for a cold easterly in the outlook period now, than I was last Friday.

I'm hopeful the low out west has been overblown by the gfs 12z for the end of this week as it seems the only obstacle to bringing the cold air back from the north east quicker, I don't really like the gfs 12z op run in FI, very messy, flabby and anticyclonic with no beasterly.

[SP1986]

I do think people have to be cautious when throwing themselves into optimism with the potential easterly on the charts. I think people don't learn from past experiences although obviously there's nothing wrong with this it's up to people how they react to model outputs, however there's nothing to suggest that any easterly potential won't end up the same as last time.

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

The Met. Office outlook is quite a contrast to yesterdays, I hope the models start to agree with each other it's been 1 hell of a rollercoaster week on here. I hope posters will not get overexcied this time until we have all the models agreeing at t-120 and a more relaxed approach is taken until we have something more solid in the blocking then we can al do a Yamkin :) only joking there. My gut feeling well I don't want to tell you at this early stage like TEITS says going to hang back a little on this until the right time.

UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Feb 2010 to Monday 15 Feb 2010:

A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK during the first weekend with south or southeasterly winds probably reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time and this is most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend, although rain or showers will continue in places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the week and into the second weekend. Temperatures likely to start around normal, but probably becoming rather cold or cold, especially in the east.

[bluearmy]

just to illustrate how the GEFS are struggling, the mean uppers at T264 on the 06z parallel were -6c. on the 12z, they are -2c. that kind of swing shouldnt happen on the ens suite which is there to a large extent, to smooth out the wild swings from one op run to another.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I do think people have to be cautious when throwing themselves into optimism with the potential easterly on the charts. I think people don't learn from past experiences although obviously there's nothing wrong with this it's up to people how they react to model outputs, however there's nothing to suggest that any easterly potential won't end up the same as last time.

Yes Stephen they do indeed. But no one has been more cautious than me up to now and I know all about the lessons etc. It is I guess a personal judgement - so the only person who would stand to be let down is me I guess Although as I always say, the weather does, what the weather does and life goes on regardless anyway. There is no point tizzing about it.

If an easterly is going to occur, the chances are higher than last time, that I am quite confident about. I think cautiousness has a place, and a right one too, but if it is taken too far then you can end up not making a judgement about anything. And I don't see the point in forever watching what is going on if one forever sits on the fence. So it can be taken too far imo.

Anyway, the ECM is now coming out. Some continuity from this morning would be most welcome.

[cooling climate]

I think the massive change in the models was over the weekend when they ditched the

idea of cold and went for a milder Atlantic driven pattern.

Now they are getting back on track after over reacting to energy (troughing coming off the

US eastern seaboard.

The timeframe for cold is still the same as it was last week around the 8th of February and

the signals for this renewed cold outlook are the same as they were last week.

I am expecting a excellent ECM tonight to give us a taste of what is in store.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I'm hopeful the low out west has been overblown by the gfs 12z for the end of this week as it seems the only obstacle to bringing the cold air back from the north east quicker, I don't really like the gfs 12z op run in FI, very messy, flabby and anticyclonic with no beasterly.

I'm only bothering looking at the GFS for selected periods of time - the rest is just entertainment value atm to be very honest!

The time period for the easterly has been put back - it was initially progged to start this week. As it stands it may well be towards the middle of next week or beyond by the time any potential more significantly colder air arrives. If it is to arrive. I don't think any of us can claim to be mystic megs about any dates.

There is a difference between being more optimisitic about possibilities, and being certain and specific about outcomes.

Edited February 1, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Altostratus]

I'm only bothering looking at the GFS for selected periods of time - the rest is just entertainment value atm to be very honest!

The last few days have certainly illustrated why so many of us advise not reading too much into the outputs outside the 96hrs timeframe. Having said that, even I am surprised how the output has changed significantly over the last couple of days – the magnitude of the shifts in output is extraordinary. We haven’t quite had a complete flip within 96-120hrs, but it isn’t far off. It is an extremely delicate balancing act that is proving difficult to resolve for even the highest resolution models. It is certainly a good insight into how small features and subtle adjustments in energy distribution can equate to large deviations in all model outputs. Who knows what the ECM will bring tonight...

[cooling climate]

The ECM at t96 is not as progressive with the deeper secondary low compared

to the 12z GFS, which is another good sign.

[MR EXTREMES]

i dont know if im right but it looks better already ecm.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

[cooling climate]

I'm only bothering looking at the GFS for selected periods of time - the rest is just entertainment value atm to be very honest!

The time period for the easterly has been put back - it was initially progged to start this week. As it stands it may well be towards the middle of next week or beyond by the time any potential more significantly colder air arrives. If it is to arrive. I don't think any of us can claim to be mystic megs about any dates.

There is a difference between being more optimisitic about possibilities, and being certain and specific about outcomes.

This I take it is reference to my post. What is your problem no one is claiming to be a mystic meg.

Kindly leave out these childish snide comments.ta.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The last few days have certainly illustrated why so many of us advise not reading too much into the outputs outside the 96hrs timeframe. Having said that, even I am surprised how the output has changed significantly over the last couple of days the magnitude of the shifts in output is extraordinary. We haven't quite had a complete flip within 96-120hrs, but it isn't far off. It is an extremely delicate balancing act that is proving difficult to resolve for even the highest resolution models. It is certainly a good insight into how small features and subtle adjustments in energy distribution can equate to large deviations in all model outputs. Who knows what the ECM will bring tonight...

In the interests of balance, the only possible flies in the ointment are the low near northern scandinvia where ideally we want pressure to be higher and also the ridge to the south over Iberia. The latter especially featured on the UKMO at t144. ECM out to t120 looks very similar to UKMO 12z especially.

Edited February 1, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Frosty.]

I'm only bothering looking at the GFS for selected periods of time - the rest is just entertainment value atm to be very honest!

The time period for the easterly has been put back - it was initially progged to start this week. As it stands it may well be towards the middle of next week or beyond by the time any potential more significantly colder air arrives. If it is to arrive. I don't think any of us can claim to be mystic megs about any dates.

There is a difference between being more optimisitic about possibilities, and being certain and specific about outcomes.

I suppose I (we) should just be grateful that the models are showing signs of colder weather ahead at some point next week and another run like the ECM 00z would be most welcome at this point, possibly the biggest backtrack I have ever seen.

Edited February 1, 2010 by Frosty039

[MR EXTREMES]

This I take it is reference to my post. What is your problem no one is claiming to be a mystic meg.

Kindly leave out these childish snide comments.ta.

oh the passion for model watching you can feel it.

now lets and make up.

forget my post earlier im a noobie so excuse me lol.

but one thing that seem right now is a slight backtrack from the strong onslaught of the alantic so chill peeps.

[NorthernRab]

i dont know if im right but it looks better already ecm.

http://www.meteociel...deles/ecmwf.php

No, you're right. By Saturday the ECM suggests a far stronger block forming and affecting the UK.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I suppose I (we) should just be grateful that the models are showing signs of colder weather ahead at some point next week and another run like the ECM 00z would be most welcome at this point, possibly the biggest backtrack I have ever seen.

Yes, it seems like a big backtrack, but I guess we are being spoiled to see all these atlantic continental battles which the models have always found difficult to evaluate. We just haven't seen so many of them in recent years

Edited February 1, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[TEITS]

GEM has now also backtracked towards an E,ly.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-144.png

If that chart verified around +168/+192 you would find the trough to the W weakening with the cold upper temps backing W.

Like Tamara says the difference how the models are handling this trough is incredible. As Tamara correctly states the UKMO had mild SW,lys into Scandinavia. Incredible stuff really which rarely occurs within +144.

Edited February 1, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Alex95]

ECM 12z fine up to +120, with an easterly trying to develop. Looking at this run there is a little shortwave progged over Scandinavia at +120 (Saturday) which is cut of from the Atlantic by a small finger of high pressure stretching down from the developing heights to the north. If this wasn't cut off it would probably be absorbed by the Atlantic low causing the low to head towards the UK, rather than south of us resulting in milder weather. Perhaps the reason for this backtrack is because the shortwave is cut off from the main low, and therefore the low can head south of the UK allowing easterlies in over the top. Hope it is clear what I mean

Edit: out to +144 and I suspect a stonker of a run is on the way

Edited February 1, 2010 by alza

[bluearmy]

touch and go if ecm at T144 can get the second undercut due to the ridge sw iberia. with such a 'fine line' on this, i rekcon the favourite at this juncture would be the UKMO evolution at T144. however, tomorrows runs may well downplay the ridge which will enable the second undercut. i'm not second guessing the ecm run, just saying how i see the situation T120-T144 currently with the iberian ridge being 'a player' of some significance.

[cooling climate]

I don't know but I would say the ECM t120 chart is better because the

ridging north takes place to the southwest of the UK so we are on the

right side of the block.

Out to t144 and loving this run so far.

Edited February 1, 2010 by cooling climate

[Southender]

That will do for starters...

Edited February 1, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[Alex95]

touch and go if ecm at T144 can get the second undercut due to the ridge sw iberia. with such a 'fine line' on this, i rekcon the favourite at this juncture would be the UKMO evolution at T144. however, tomorrows runs may well downplay the ridge which will enable the second undercut. i'm not second guessing the ecm run, just saying how i see the situation T120-T144 currently with the iberian ridge being 'a player' of some significance.

The Iberian ridge looks to be 'getting out the way' at +144, I'd expect / hope for an undercut from that chart. The high is retrogressing towards Greenland, which obviously helps this.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

GEM has now also backtracked towards an E,ly.

http://91.121.94.83/...n/gem-0-144.png

If that chart verified around +168/+192 you would find the trough to the W weakening with the cold upper temps backing W.

Like Tamara says the difference how the models are handling this trough is incredible. As Tamara correctly states the UKMO had mild SW,lys into Scandinavia. Incredible stuff really which rarely occurs within +144.

Very interesting at t144. The low near Scandi is not such a problem afterall here. Maybe we are going to see a surge from the north/north east with the high shifting towards Greenland??

[Iceberg]

Fantastic, best realistic possible solution from ECM at 144T and the 168 shows what would cetaintly follow.

Very good ECM tonight just frmo the 144 and 120 charts.

[Southender]

HP off for a holiday to Greenland...