South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Methuselah]

Please continue...Previous:

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Hey hey,

Shocking roads this morning, passed a pretty bad looking accident on one of the country roads on the way to work, car missing its front end, police and an ambulance trying to get the girl out. Took 45mins to do a 25min journey!

Anyway, models looking more promising now, and in line with the Beeb from last night.

And! Jack Johnson at the Eden Sessions! Ah, summer is a coming!

Edited February 1, 2010 by Dartmoor_Matt

[Andy Bown]

Yes the roads were bad this morning with a very thick hoar frost, it was more dangerous after 09.00 when a slow melt bagan and, as the sun moved round, some of the water refroze.

Has anyone in the Wilts/Bath area had snow fluries this pm? The NW radar shows some moving slowly SE from the Bristol area.

[dancing daisy]

Hey hey,

Shocking roads this morning, passed a pretty bad looking accident on one of the country roads on the way to work, car missing its front end, police and an ambulance trying to get the girl out. Took 45mins to do a 25min journey!

Anyway, models looking more promising now, and in line with the Beeb from last night.

And! Jack Johnson at the Eden Sessions! Ah, summer is a coming!

Oh gosh! I hope the girl is ok, do you know?

Jack Johnson confirmed for Glastonbury today, same weekend as Eden. I lurve JJ

[littlemissy]

Dancing daisy, hope I didn't offend you about loving your technical jargon.I'm in the same boat as you,in trying to understand all the technical stuff ,i think your further on than me to be honest.

Yep it was very slippy today at school and not to mention cold n horrible @ lunchtime on the playground.

Must admit I'm really glad for a spot of mild weather for five minutes.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Oh gosh! I hope the girl is ok, do you know?

Jack Johnson confirmed for Glastonbury today, same weekend as Eden. I lurve JJ

I don't know, on the way home the car was still there, with police tape over it, not sure if thats good or bad?

Yup, June 26th! Awesome, got the email today as I've got that Eden thing to get 7 days priority for tickets. Gonna be great! Combine it with a weekend surfing, camping and cider drinking! Summertime!!

[dancing daisy]

Dancing daisy, hope I didn't offend you about loving your technical jargon.I'm in the same boat as you,in trying to understand all the technical stuff ,i think your further on than me to be honest.

Yep it was very slippy today at school and not to mention cold n horrible @ lunchtime on the playground.

Must admit I'm really glad for a spot of mild weather for five minutes.

Oh lordy, No! Not in a million years! I find my ignorance funny, I find it funnier that my tech jargon must really annoy the uber weather geeks on here. I love the fact that you have joined in.

Not the peeps in the southwest thread of course, you are all lovely!

Matt, yes surfing, beaches and Eden sessions does sound like an almost perfect weekend, although I am sure it won't be as perfect as mine!

Fingers crossed that the girl is ok.

Edit> I should probably talk about weather a bit more!

Edited February 1, 2010 by dancing daisy

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Oh lordy, No! Not in a million years! I find my ignorance funny, I find it funnier that my tech jargon must really annoy the uber weather geeks on here. I love the fact that you have joined in.

Not the peeps in the southwest thread of course, you are all lovely!

Matt, yes surfing, beaches and Eden sessions does sound like an almost perfect weekend, although I am sure it won't be as perfect as mine!

Fingers crossed that the girl is ok.

Edit> I should probably talk about weather a bit more!

Weather, pah, whats that?

Ah, you see, the perfection will be the lack of mud, and 16hours of wall to wall sunshine. Something that never happens at Glastonbury

The one downside is the need for a taxi to and from said campsite to said Eden Session. Well, assuming cider (which is good for the soul) is being drunk

[dancing daisy]

Weather, pah, whats that?

Ah, you see, the perfection will be the lack of mud, and 16hours of wall to wall sunshine. Something that never happens at Glastonbury

The one downside is the need for a taxi to and from said campsite to said Eden Session. Well, assuming cider (which is good for the soul) is being drunk

As a true Glastofarian I must say that they are not all muddy, just 7 out of the 10 I have been to, and only one of those had no mud at all.

Oh well, I still get to drink too much cider, talk to random people and dance in my wellies, so all good really.

A taxi from Newquay to St Austell will cost a fortune! I suggest taking a pregnant woman who can drive.

Right enough of my top tips, time to get off this laptop and see what is happening in the real world.

Laterz

Oh yes, weather. Ummm, it's cold.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Pah! There are far better places for surfing than Newquay! (and with less 12 year olds trying to get drunk and falling off cliffs instead) But yes, taxi not cheap. But cheaper than a baby.

Have fun in the real world, I'm going to go and make enchilladas I think.

[MartUK]

Evening all

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Evenin'!

Nice to see we have gone from snow this morning to rain now. Great. Still, holding out much hope for next week and then that will do me fine for winter. It can warm up then.

[MartUK]

Evening Matt i travel to Plymouth everyday and the weather has been a right pain, it's nice to see the snowfall etc don't get me wrong but it cause's so many problems.

This morning it was 4c here then it went to -1 glynn valley and 2c in Plymouth.

[Ian Fergusson]

Jack Johnson confirmed for Glastonbury today, same weekend as Eden. I lurve JJ

If it was the Brothers Johnson, I might go. Fat chance. Who the heck is Jack Johnson?

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Ian, you are kidding of course?

He played Hyde Park in 2008, that was really good! Despite the rain of course.

[Ian Fergusson]

Ian, you are kidding of course?

He played Hyde Park in 2008, that was really good! Despite the rain of course.

Played football there?

Seriously, I've never heard of him. I'll have to Google him. But then the last pop concert I attended was Knebworth in ca. 1986 or 1987 - as a copper.

Queen played. It was sunny. I was bored.

And some poor local sod from Stevenage got murdered by bikers and I worked on the incident room for about 2 months. That's my lasting memory of it.....

[snowking]

If it was the Brothers Johnson, I might go. Fat chance. Who the heck is Jack Johnson?

Ahh now come on Ian, we're going to have to get you down with the kids

http://www.we7.com/#/artist/Jack-Johnson!artistId=125267

To be honest i'll be disappointed now if your next broadcast isnt done to the tune of one of his songs (pick your favourite, im not fussy) whilst you have a lighter in your hands with your arms in the air swaying from side to side

Anyways back to that weather thing we all talk about sometimes. I went to bed last night knowing after looking at the radar i'd wake up to a bit of a dusting which was a nice thought!

In terms of the more medium-term outlook still no change really in the general trends for the weekend and beyond for something colder from the SE/E, though it may not be until towards the middle of the month we see any potential fun and games with regard to snowfall

A potentially interesting setup in place with a strongly negative AO (down to around -5 or -6 standard deviations), but with the NAO slightly negative, but based closer to the USA than the UK. I realise thats all jargon again but in short the AO (arctic oscillation) is an indication of which way the flow is travelling around the arctic regions. In the normal positive phase of the AO, we see westerly or 'zonal' winds occuring, meaning that generally weather systems travel from west to east across the atlantic (this is why if anyone has been following the stratospheric warming threads, the current warming of the stratosphere has the effect of "reversing the zonal winds" in the stratosphere, and the expectation is that these easterly winds will "propagate down to the surface", meaning that they will travel down from the stratosphere and into the troposphere - the troposphere is the layer of the atmosphere closest to the surface of the earth) . However once we get a negative AO, the winds reverse, and head in an easterly circulation around the pole, leading to the usual west to east flow of the weather across the atlantic (in association with the Jet Stream) becoming restricted, and the risk of blocking high pressures becoming established across NW europe.

Now the interest develops for me with the fact that whilst the NAO (north atlantic oscillation, which is affected by the usual occurrence of low pressure around iceland/greenland, and high pressure in the southern half of the north atlantic ocean, knows as the azores high, combining to give a flow from west to east across the atlantic due to the way air travels around pressure systems in the northern hemisphere, in the northern hemisphere winds travel clockwise in high pressure and anti-clockwise in low pressure, the opposite is true in the southern hemisphere)is negative, it is only weakly negative. What this means is we are likely to see the jet stream and its associated low pressure systems being very close to the UK. Of course if these LP's were to meet the cold air from a blocking high and an easterly already across the UK, then something similar to february 09 could ensue. This is also the reason, however, that forecasting models are currently very unsure of what the situation will be. Having the jet stream so close to the UK means there is a very tight margin between cold easterlies from a blocking high, or mild south-westerlies from the atlantic jet stream.

We could then go into more complex teleconnection forecasts such as the MJO and GWO, but in truth even I dont fully understand the causes of their phases, all I know is the likely outcome of each of their phases, and with the MJO in phase 7, moving very slowly into phase 8, the signs for colder weather across the UK are high.

So hopefully this gives you all an overview of why there is so much uncertainty and so many needless tantrums and pathetic slating and backstabbing going on at present in the model thread! All I would say for now is to avoid paying attention to too many of the posts over there (apart from of course those more knowledgeable posters over there and i'm sure by now we all know who they are), and that in my humble opinion by the beginning of next week the cold will come tumbling back in from the east

SK

[Ian Fergusson]

Played football there?

Seriously, I've never heard of him. I'll have to Google him. But then the last pop concert I attended was Knebworth in ca. 1986 or 1987 - as a copper.

Queen played. It was sunny. I was bored.

And some poor local sod from Stevenage got murdered by bikers and I worked on the incident room for about 2 months. That's my lasting memory of it.....

OK, OK, I did Google him!! It says:

"Johnson's songwriting influences growing up included Bob Dylan, Nick Drake, Cat Stevens, Ben Harper, Fugazi, The Beatles, Simon & Garfunkel, Jimmy Buffett, Bob Marley,...."

....at which point it became wholly evident why I'd never heard of the guy, without having to read any further his 'influences'..... musical or, erm, otherwise.....

But I'm sure he's a very nice and talented chap. And reportedly a good surfer. And clearly (he still has two legs) very good at evading Hawaii's gorgeous and unfairly uncherished Galeocerdo cuvier population.

[dancing daisy]

If it was the Brothers Johnson, I might go. Fat chance. Who the heck is Jack Johnson?

It's ok Grandad, drink your Horlicks and get back to your nap, the bad people willl leave you alone soon.

Played football there?

Seriously, I've never heard of him. I'll have to Google him. But then the last pop concert I attended was Knebworth in ca. 1986 or 1987 - as a copper.

Queen played. It was sunny. I was bored.

And some poor local sod from Stevenage got murdered by bikers and I worked on the incident room for about 2 months. That's my lasting memory of it.....

Good god you need educating!

Pah! There are far better places for surfing than Newquay! (and with less 12 year olds trying to get drunk and falling off cliffs instead) But yes, taxi not cheap. But cheaper than a baby.

Have fun in the real world, I'm going to go and make enchilladas I think.

I'm not a surfer, so wouldn't know to be honest. I can't swim, there, I said it out loud!

Any random pregnant lady will do, I know a coupple if you want to borrow them?

[quantock girl]

How can people live in the South West and not heard of JJ!

It's the sound of summer on a beach as the sun goes down, you've had 4' clean swell all weekend and your so tired your in a daze.

Perhaps, for people who don't know JJ (Ian that's you!) grab your board and hit Constantine, Harlyn or Mawgan Porth this summer.

Weather outlook - rain, great!

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

jack johnson i think i may have just printed a trees worth of notes off on a side note 26 pages of notes!

on the weather note milder outside and been reading to MO discussion seems cold on the cards for next week so for now we get to enjoy some milder conditions

[jethro]

Played football there?

Seriously, I've never heard of him. I'll have to Google him. But then the last pop concert I attended was Knebworth in ca. 1986 or 1987 - as a copper.

Queen played. It was sunny. I was bored.

And some poor local sod from Stevenage got murdered by bikers and I worked on the incident room for about 2 months. That's my lasting memory of it.....

How????? I mean really, how is that possible?

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Yup indeed, the true sound of the summers evening, a day in the surf, followed by a cold drink and BBQ as the sun sets. It's one of the moments that makes this country OK to live in

Polzeath outside of holidays... no where better. (OK a little chilly in January)

[Schmac]

jack johnson i think i may have just printed a trees worth of notes off on a side note 26 pages of notes!

on the weather note milder outside and been reading to MO discussion seems cold on the cards for next week so for now we get to enjoy some milder conditions

Yep... That seems to be the general theme!

In fact, since around this time last week several of the "main" posters were talking of a cold spell kicking in around the 8th... We shall see!

There are some really good posts by some of the "regulars" who seem to really know what they're talking about (and who don't change their minds with every model run!)...

It was very icy here this morning... Shouldn't have that problem tomorrow though!

[Ian Fergusson]

How????? I mean really, how is that possible?

It's the crowds. Hate crowds and so a bustling pop concert is my idea of living hell. Queen were OK though; at least what I remember of them. It was before Mercury popped his clogs, obviously.