Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

South West England Cold Spell Discussion


Methuselah

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset

http://www.we7.com/#...artistId=156794 Currently rocking it in Daisy mansions!

Rain then. Great! It's my playground duty today, I have 2 meetings to look forward to, and I have been up since 6am making a presentation. Wooo hoo! The fun just never stops in my world! whistling.gif

Have a good day all!

Edit> Looking sharp today Mr F! :nonono:

Edited by dancing daisy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts

http://www.we7.com/#...artistId=156794 Currently rocking it in Daisy mansions!

Rain then. Great! It's my playground duty today, I have 2 meetings to look forward to, and I have been up since 6am making a presentation. Wooo hoo! The fun just never stops in my world! whistling.gif

Have a good day all!

Edit> Looking sharp today Mr F! biggrin.gif

Ta Ma'am! The heavier, more persistent rain yet to arrive.... so it'll get wetter still for you until early/mid afternoon! But hey, at least it's mild.... good.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

It's the crowds. Hate crowds and so a bustling pop concert is my idea of living hell. Queen were OK though; at least what I remember of them. It was before Mercury popped his clogs, obviously.

I kind of with you there, with the exception of gigs; idiot here was half a dozen rows from the front at the Foo Fighter gig in Hyde Park, 85,000 people pushing from behind, breathing becomes an optional extra sometimes. Saw Queen at Milton Keynes bowl years ago, Freddie was fantastic, the ultimate showman.

Weather.....getting back on topic.....Easterly, no Easterly, cold, bitter cold, mild and wet. Mmmm, I've tried deciphering the MOD thread but feel as though I've wandered into a class at Sylvia Young's drama school, all arm waving and dramatic emphasis :drinks:

Looking forward to Spring.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon

Pretty miserable first thing, but dried up now.

If this is the alternative to bright, cold mornings with snow on the ground, I take it all back. I want the snow!

Still, less than 4 weeks and we shall, officially at least, be in Spring! :drinks:

As for the MO thread... haha. I think the one thing we can guage from there, is that they really, and trully...haven't a clue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Somerset
  • Location: West Somerset

looking at the model output discussion and their chatter of 'bad run', 'good run' is it daft to ask this;

What information do the models use that can alter their course so quickly, so really the question is why can there be such a different output from model to model and run to run?

And, is there one model that accepts all the data (temperature - upper and lower, wind, etc) to produce its results and if yes, which one?

Grey and damp and mild here this morning. That's fine I have an essay to write about 'workplace discourse communities' to keep me entertained! (not!)

cc_confused.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon

looking at the model output discussion and their chatter of 'bad run', 'good run' is it daft to ask this;

What information do the models use that can alter their course so quickly, so really the question is why can there be such a different output from model to model and run to run?

And, is there one model that accepts all the data (temperature - upper and lower, wind, etc) to produce its results and if yes, which one?

Grey and damp and mild here this morning. That's fine I have an essay to write about 'workplace discourse communities' to keep me entertained! (not!)

cc_confused.gif

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/35985-what-data-does-the-gfs-use/

That's the data that the GFS uses for each run.

So the reason they can change from one run to the next is because the input changes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Somerset
  • Location: West Somerset

http://forum.netweat...es-the-gfs-use/

That's the data that the GFS uses for each run.

So the reason they can change from one run to the next is because the input changes.

Thanks, sometimes it's better not to ask looking at the amount of input used!

Ok, next question!

If the input changes run to run, why do we look so far ahead (10-15 day+) and count our chickens, are we looking out for trends only?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

Going back a few posts re concerts. I am so proud to say that I have only ever been to two concerts, but they were...

1963.....The Beatles

1970 (ish).....Stevie Wonder

Both were held at that most magnificent venue...the ABC cinema in Exeter. There weren't any "venues" as such at the time, apart from the newly opened Northcott Theatre at Exeter University, so the cinema doubled up as a concert venue!

Ah, the witterings of an old woman!

The weather is rather boring at the moment, dull, cold and drizzly. The models show nothing but uncertainty, so I shall be of the view that February is usually our coldest month and we will get snow!

Peace and love to everyone in the SW! :lol:

It's the crowds. Hate crowds and so a bustling pop concert is my idea of living hell.

You could be my long-lost son (if I had one! :) )

If you ever feel like a bit of self-inflicted torture, go to Asda at Longwell Green on a Saturday! :unsure: It takes the word "ghastly" to a whole new level!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon

Thanks, sometimes it's better not to ask looking at the amount of input used!

Ok, next question!

If the input changes run to run, why do we look so far ahead (10-15 day+) and count our chickens, are we looking out for trends only?

Haha!

Well, its only the GFS that goes out that far, the ECM goes to 240hrs and the UKMO to 144hrs (although even that is a slightly suspect timescale)

So yes, look for trends over the longer time scale rather that exact synoptics. You have to remember that the models are generally correct in what will happen, but rarely where it will happen. :unsure:

noggin: The ABC...is that where the Odeon is on Sidwell St.? Or some other long lost place? I prefer the Picture House at the moment, get some good films in there... if somewhat outside of the box. Antichrist was ... interesting, but you get awesomely comfy seats and can take your beer in with you :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

noggin: The ABC...is that where the Odeon is on Sidwell St.? Or some other long lost place? I prefer the Picture House at the moment, get some good films in there... if somewhat outside of the box. Antichrist was ... interesting, but you get awesomely comfy seats and can take your beer in with you :lol:

No. Yer tiz..... http://www.exetermemories.co.uk/EM/abc.html

It was situated between Boots Corner and the top of Longbrook Street.

I used to go to the Odeon on Saturday mornings for the childrens' show.

I went to St.Sidwell's school, though! But they recently knocked it down and built a new one. :):)

Teenage years meant Tiffany's and The Quay nightclubs.....close together, one on either side of the river

Football at St. James' Park and speedway at the County Ground in St.Thomas.

I shall get all weepy for my long-lost youth in a minute........... :unsure: :)

Not to mention boring the pants off non-Exonians! :lol:

But, to know it is to love it............

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon

They don't know what they are missing out on! :lazy:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton Somerset(term time ) Sudbury, Suffolk weekends and holidays hoping to make Suffolk permanent soon ) . .
  • Weather Preferences: thunder/lightning ,gales and warm sunny weather
  • Location: Taunton Somerset(term time ) Sudbury, Suffolk weekends and holidays hoping to make Suffolk permanent soon ) . .

How did your day go dancing daisy? must admit it was damp and dismal weather wise on the playground too.Couldn't get warm at all.

How did the presentation turn out?

Has anyone bought a weather station type gadget that sits on your window sill(and no it's not just a thermometer) .It measures humidity and other stuff.I thought of getting one as the data that I get is from Dunkeswell and the station there is on a hill and it's not that local to me.Wonder if anyone else had one that's all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset

How did your day go dancing daisy? must admit it was damp and dismal weather wise on the playground too.Couldn't get warm at all.

How did the presentation turn out?

Has anyone bought a weather station type gadget that sits on your window sill(and no it's not just a thermometer) .It measures humidity and other stuff.I thought of getting one as the data that I get is from Dunkeswell and the station there is on a hill and it's not that local to me.Wonder if anyone else had one that's all.

Great thanks! How was yours? PPA tomorrow morning as well to look forward to, so plenty of time for emailing and messing about on the net.....ooops obviously I mean planning and marking! whistling.gif

I know nothing about weather stations, sorry. I am supposed to be setting one up at school but haven't a clue where to start...well apart from here of course. It's on my to-do list, which has about a dozen to-do's ahead of it. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

In the heavier burst of rain there was some sleet mixed in as I was travelling to work this morning.

Reports of snow in the Cotswolds?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

In the heavier burst of rain there was some sleet mixed in as I was travelling to work this morning.

Reports of snow in the Cotswolds?

Just had some snow falling in North BTL, after early rain - totally unexpected this far south today methinks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts

Just had some snow falling in North BTL, after early rain - totally unexpected this far south today methinks.

Nah - forecast detail changed a tad last night as the NAE suddenly got more bullish about lowering the WBFL a bit further and bringing the transitional zone a bit further south. We reflected it in forecasts on local radio / TV this morning albeit the noteworthy snow thus far has been into uplands of north Wilts and especially Glos - - but not sticking for very long. It'll be likely problematic further north in the Midlands, however, by around midday and especially into north Mids later this evening.

Latest EC ENS makes very interesting viewing..... PPN signal now enhanced after being muted for a while; colder spell prospects return again next week and we're pondering if the enhanced PPN signal reflects stalling Atlantic frontal progresions against the easterly block. We shall see. All eyes on the 12Z EC OP, me thinks. Still not a done deal by any means.... but it's a stronger cold signal evolving after the recent to-and-fro model shenanigans.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Nah - forecast detail changed a tad last night as the NAE suddenly got more bullish about lowering the WBFL a bit further and bringing the transitional zone a bit further south. We reflected it in forecasts on local radio / TV this morning albeit the noteworthy snow thus far has been into uplands of north Wilts and especially Glos - - but not sticking for very long. It'll be likely problematic further north in the Midlands, however, by around midday and especially into north Mids later this evening.

Latest EC ENS makes very interesting viewing..... PPN signal now enhanced after being muted for a while; colder spell prospects return again next week and we're pondering if the enhanced PPN signal reflects stalling Atlantic frontal progresions against the easterly block. We shall see. All eyes on the 12Z EC OP, me thinks. Still not a done deal by any means.... but it's a stronger cold signal evolving after the recent to-and-fro model shenanigans.

Cheers Ian. I did see the late weather last night and your quick forecast this morn which obviously had some differences.

Interesting last paragraph in your reply - it's fair to say the Meto have been on about next week for a while now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Location: Swindon

As confirmed by Ian, On the train this morning from swindon, noticed that the hills by wroughton and lyneham had snow lying whilst swindon had nothing, although my gf reported a few flurries back in the town at about 8:30 once I got into bath where we just had heavy sleet for a short while and it's been rain since.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

We had some wet snow up over the mendips first thing this morning which was pkeasant to see. drinks.gif turned back to rain quite quickly though.

Next week looks interesting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Nah - forecast detail changed a tad last night as the NAE suddenly got more bullish about lowering the WBFL a bit further and bringing the transitional zone a bit further south. We reflected it in forecasts on local radio / TV this morning albeit the noteworthy snow thus far has been into uplands of north Wilts and especially Glos - - but not sticking for very long. It'll be likely problematic further north in the Midlands, however, by around midday and especially into north Mids later this evening.

Latest EC ENS makes very interesting viewing..... PPN signal now enhanced after being muted for a while; colder spell prospects return again next week and we're pondering if the enhanced PPN signal reflects stalling Atlantic frontal progresions against the easterly block. We shall see. All eyes on the 12Z EC OP, me thinks. Still not a done deal by any means.... but it's a stronger cold signal evolving after the recent to-and-fro model shenanigans.

That sounds interesting Ian, if the block can hold then there could well be a stalling front scenario?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

Must admit I was surprised to see the temp below 3c when I got up at 06.00, was expecting it to be at least 5c. There was drizzle when I left where I live around 07.00 but, while working in my old home town of Westbury, there was some wet snow during a few heavy bursts of precipitation.

Even now the temperature is only at 4.8c and drizzle is falling. Seems the warm sector isn't that much milder, although Yeovilton is nearing 8c now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon

Murky and mild here. Looking forward to next week now, the models have been playing with the idea of cold from the 8th for ages now. So lets hope. The 12z GFS is epic for us in the mid range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Massive upgrades on all model runs this evening. If they verify we'll see biting easterlies and blizzards of late 70s/early 80s severity. And the spell of weather will make the snowfall we've seen so far this winter and last February look like a series of starters!laugh.gif

I suppose the way the models have been chopping and changing of late means a large dose of caution needs to be thrown into the mix though.

trying to stay calm!dirol.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brislington, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Brislington, Bristol

Massive upgrades on all model runs this evening. If they verify we'll see biting easterlies and blizzards of late 70s/early 80s severity. And the spell of weather will make the snowfall we've seen so far this winter and last February look like a series of starters!laugh.gif

I suppose the way the models have been chopping and changing of late means a large dose of caution needs to be thrown into the mix though.

trying to stay calm!dirol.gif

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!yahoo.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...