South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[caz100]

hey we due more snow next week ????

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Who know how far west it will all get, but then we had this problem last time around and it was OK for much of the SW?

Still too far out for firm predictions on where and how much etc.

[Bristawl Si]

Who know how far west it will all get, but then we had this problem last time around and it was OK for much of the SW?

Still too far out for firm predictions on where and how much etc.

Agree Matt. It will turn colder, but at this stage we know not how cold or snowy. The areas that will cop any snowfall will not be known until 24 hours before any progged snow event and in some cases only hours before. We've seen this happen a few weeks ago and last Feb - the detail was not decided until almost the last minute.

I'm sure if things start to 'firm up' in next couple of days we'll get 1st hand knowledge from Ian F.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Agree Matt. It will turn colder, but at this stage we know not how cold or snowy. The areas that will cop any snowfall will not be known until 24 hours before any progged snow event and in some cases only hours before. We've seen this happen a few weeks ago and last Feb - the detail was not decided until almost the last minute.

I'm sure if things start to 'firm up' in next couple of days we'll get 1st hand knowledge from Ian F.

Hopefully, and the GEM, GME and a few GFS ens throwing in the channel low again for good measure!

[egret]

Nice to see a return to cold weather is on its way however all we shall hear about over the next few days is the east.

If we in west country are to see any snow from the next cold spell it will be on the 8th or 9th of feb! You may ask why i know this and well the reason is simple - I am going to be at a plant auction in holland for 2 days!

Happens every time.

Cider is wonderful stuff although i confess that i do Marinate myself with it!

Best to sit down when drinking - avoids the worst of marination and results in less wastage ;-)

fingers crossed for next week. Precipitation charts seem to forecast Dorset snowless this time which, on the basis of counterbluff, suggests it could be our turn for some white stuff!!

Edited February 4, 2010 by egret

[Bristawl Si]

Hopefully, and the GEM, GME and a few GFS ens throwing in the channel low again for good measure!

Yes, earlier. Latest ECM though shows more stable airflow for large parts of country, but there's days to go yet before detail is nailed on.

The good old Channel Low....now where did they go?!

Used to see a number of those dump large amounts of snow in the south west in the late 70s/early 80s and my dad tells me these were not uncommon in the decades eithe side of WW2 as well.

[Ian Fergusson]

I think we'll continue with a wait-and-see approach for our region and sensibly so; I'm awaiting the next analysis from our medium range gurus at Exeter but the last UKMO briefing (just before midday) was still replete with caveats and especially on the snow risk issue; e.g.:

(Days 6-7, Wed-Thurs): "Low to moderate probability of rain, sleet and snow spreading from the SW into southern and some central parts during Thursday. The snow especially over hills, but to low levels at times. Risk of locally heavy snow and significant accumulations.......(snip).........Temperatures mostly rather cold/cold but near normal in parts of the far W. (Confidence on PPN detail = LOW)

(Days 8-10 - Friday to Sunday): WEATHER:..... rain, sleet and snow across southern areas clearing away south during Friday.... (snip)....... risk of a similar incursion from the SW later in the weekend.....(snip).....sleet or snow showers, these mostly in the east, where there is a moderate probability of significant accumulations of snow..... (snip).....Generally rather cold/cold..... (Confidence only MODERATE for temperatures; LOW on all other detail given ensemble spread)

(Trend For Days 10-15): Overall blocking pattern looks set to continue. Some westward retrogression initially and mobility restricted to lower latitudes. Overall mostly cold/rather cold and unsettled with risk of further bands of ppn pushing in from the SW - with mix of rain/sleet/snow - the rain mainly just in far SW...

(Analysis) ".....a large spread in terms of frontal progression across SW areas of the UK... (snip).....high confidence in cold conditions for many E and N areas, with some wintry precipitation, but lower for detail towards the SW. This set-up brings the risk of substantial snowfall on the leading edge of frontal zones moving NE, but very low PROBS for any particular area at this stage."

I dare say our next briefing will firm up on various aspects of all this, but for now, I'm enjoying the lively-looking rainfall developing tonight and indeed a few equally lively showers - potentially Cb's for some of us - during tomorrow. Who needs the chilly stuff?

Edited February 4, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[snowking]

Evening folks,

Apologies for my quietness - hectic period at the moment im in and out the studio most of february doing post-production work and fiddling around with broadcast computers - all good fun

Looking more and more likely that the initial trends I picked up back in november in the winter forecast will come to prevail next week. Im going much more with the GFS/UKMO consensus on this one as opposed to the much drier ECMWF. With a far more west-based NAO pattern in place, the jet stream is likely to run very close to the south of the UK - this can only lead to one thing IMO, and thats channel-low type scenario's. I very much think we could see the weather back in the headlines next week

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Still a few more hurdles to cross yet but winter 09/10 could go out with a bit of a white-bang

SK

[Ian Fergusson]

Evening folks,

Apologies for my quietness - hectic period at the moment im in and out the studio most of february doing post-production work and fiddling around with broadcast computers - all good fun

Looking more and more likely that the initial trends I picked up back in november in the winter forecast will come to prevail next week. Im going much more with the GFS/UKMO consensus on this one as opposed to the much drier ECMWF. With a far more west-based NAO pattern in place, the jet stream is likely to run very close to the south of the UK - this can only lead to one thing IMO, and thats channel-low type scenario's. I very much think we could see the weather back in the headlines next week

http://www.cpc.noaa....a/nao.sprd2.gif

Still a few more hurdles to cross yet but winter 09/10 could go out with a bit of a white-bang

SK

Agreed

[snowking]

Agreed

Just seen your post above Ian

Looks as though the exeter-gang have pretty similar thoughts, though understandably at this range hedging their bets a little with regards to PPN type - id expect to see forecasts more towards sleet/snow with less mention of the word rain over the coming days

Incidentally just thought I should point out IF this spell comes off then the CFS long range model picked up this sort of trend back at the start of november as I began compiling my longer range thoughts. Could well be useful in the future as they work on the model more and more

SK

[WESTERN SNOWS]

Just seen your post above Ian

Looks as though the exeter-gang have pretty similar thoughts, though understandably at this range hedging their bets a little with regards to PPN type - id expect to see forecasts more towards sleet/snow with less mention of the word rain over the coming days

Incidentally just thought I should point out IF this spell comes off then the CFS long range model picked up this sort of trend back at the start of november as I began compiling my longer range thoughts. Could well be useful in the future as they work on the model more and more

SK

well here we are again with the threat of some snow action later on next week for me im here in bristol up till next friday then going to essex until the monday so i guess i will have a good look on the way up the m4 @ m25 of which places have the most snow from west to east im looking forward to it hopefully we will get somthing and the models are looking very promising so fingers crossed:drinks:

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Some pretty epic rain here this evening, was pelting it down when I threw the cat out

I'm still not going to stick my neck out for PPN amounts next week, but it should be pretty chilly everywhere.

[SteveB]

Morning all,

Chance of a few sharp showers today.

http://forum.netweat...0entry1764881

Edited February 5, 2010 by SteveB

[Iceberg]

A good METO update for the SW. Next week is still uncertain for our parts, and nothing exceptional looks in the offering but we could be in for a few little surprises, further out as as the below mentioned the risk looks (a long way off yet) as if it might increase.

Rain, sleet and snow may spread into some parts of the southwest for a time during Wednesday and Thursday, and again early in the following week. Overnight, frost is likely in many places, with locally severe frost inland. Remaining cold for the rest of the period with some snow or snow showers at times, particularly in eastern and some central areas. There is also a risk of further bands of rain, sleet and snow spreading into the south, particularly later in the period.

[Nights King]

A good METO update for the SW. Next week is still uncertain for our parts, and nothing exceptional looks in the offering but we could be in for a few little surprises, further out as as the below mentioned the risk looks (a long way off yet) as if it might increase.

Rain, sleet and snow may spread into some parts of the southwest for a time during Wednesday and Thursday, and again early in the following week. Overnight, frost is likely in many places, with locally severe frost inland. Remaining cold for the rest of the period with some snow or snow showers at times, particularly in eastern and some central areas. There is also a risk of further bands of rain, sleet and snow spreading into the south, particularly later in the period.

I shall not be getting my hopes up just yet, This winter still has along way in my mind to beating last februarys snow fest that we got.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

We've had many more snow days this winter to last, and certainly more frosts, but one more bite at the cherry would be good! Then we can look forward to some uber warm weather! (Well, we can hope right?! - might as well get something out of all this global warming!)

Some pretty beefy showers today, but also plenty of sunshine!

Oh, and did someone say it was Friday!?

[Nights King]

Yes it has been a good winter so far with frost and cold and yes also more snow days but never have we had a huge fall of snow quite yet.

I wanna see 2 feet of snow outside again outside like last february and then I'll say its been my best winter ever. Just greedy after last year which although was more marginal from a selfish point of view High ground had a stonker last year.

Bring on the cold! Cold winter also does wonders for plant trade when we do hit spring! last year we had 30% increase because of a real winter.

Edited February 5, 2010 by mullender83

[Dartmoor_Matt]

We had over a foot on the ground a couple of times this winter so no complaints there, admittedly when we got the most it was also the same day as the less cold temps so very wet snow and not as good and powdery as last year. The first snow was good quality though.

Yes, I can see lots of jobs in the garden that need doing!

[Nights King]

We had over a foot on the ground a couple of times this winter so no complaints there, admittedly when we got the most it was also the same day as the less cold temps so very wet snow and not as good and powdery as last year. The first snow was good quality though.

Yes, I can see lots of jobs in the garden that need doing!

Yes we still await the holy grail in terms of winter here in west country we need a nice stalling front for a good 24 hour or more dumping. It looks like a non event for us at the moment but it has time to evolve into a great cold spell!

[dogs32]

I thought Spring was slowly on it's way but according to The Met the snow could be far from over!!

Possibilities of snow spreading into the South West sometime next week.

I hope not

Edited February 5, 2010 by dogs32

[Wilxy]

Just remembered it was exact year ago we saw loads of snow from 2 fronts good old days lol.

[Nights King]

I thought Spring was slowly on it's way but according to The Met the snow could be far from over!!

Possibilities of snow spreading into the South West sometime next week.

I hope not

Don't tell me you have become bored of snow!? Spring!? we are only half way through winter at the moment and march can be a winter month often...

[dogs32]

Don't tell me you have become bored of snow!? Spring!? we are only half way through winter at the moment and march can be a winter month often...

hi mate,

no I love snow but I cant really afford any loss of work day's due to snow cover.

Though if it snow's I will enjoy it.

[#DLFCH#]

good evening

[dancing daisy]

According to a woman I spoke to tonight, it will snow here on Thursday. I do believe her because she is a psychic so it must be true...

Weirdest evening ever!

I had better say good bye to my plans for a snow zoo until 2011 then.