The Andy Music Thread

[Methuselah]

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[marclt]

Current conditions:

Rel Pressure: 1006.9hpa trend: falling

Temp: 6.2c Humidity: 97%

Winds WNW.

[andymusic]

GFS still trying to show temps cold middle of the day tomorrow as the front passes over us - gonna be extremely cold rain from that orrrrrrrrrrrr - snow! - we'll see - front looks like it might struggle a bit too against the cold ne block - as the beeb are changing their forecasts on this one each time I check! - not sure (on last welsh thread) where pascalsbongo is getting 8 degrees c for wednesday?

[Bobby]

Absolutely lashing it down outside. 7.2c here.

I don't think we will get snow tomorrow, maybe an outside chance if you live on the top of a big mountain.

[welshwizard]

Absolutely lashing it down outside. 7.2c here.

I don't think we will get snow tomorrow, maybe an outside chance if you live on the top of a big mountain.

i just drove over the top of a big mountain and it was pouring down with rain and temp was 6.8,unless it cools down a lot i cant even see us getting sleet,weather on tv this morn showed 8 degrees for tomor in s wales and mid wales with a chance of some snow for the very top of north wales and lots of snow for scotland tomor. and thier temps showed 2 degrees on tv cant remem if it was bbc or itv.

[andymusic]

i just drove over the top of a big mountain and it was pouring down with rain and temp was 6.8,unless it cools down a lot i cant even see us getting sleet,weather on tv this morn showed 8 degrees for tomor in s wales and mid wales with a chance of some snow for the very top of north wales and lots of snow for scotland tomor. and thier temps showed 2 degrees on tv cant remem if it was bbc or itv.

The northerly air/cold -5 uppers are traveling down the country today and overnight will make it close to mid wales - this may help temps to get near what we need for sleet/snow - not guaranteed

[welshwizard]

just watched bbc weather for tomor and they went into detail about snow tomor and very slight chance on brecon and maybe the very top of north wales but slight,and then manchester and up snow,temps for tomor for wales showed 7 to 8 and for thurs 9. so it looks like the models that show low temps could be wrong and it does feel very mild today compared to what we used to.

[andymusic]

just watched bbc weather for tomor and they went into detail about snow tomor and very slight chance on brecon and maybe the very top of north wales but slight,and then manchester and up snow,temps for tomor for wales showed 7 to 8 and for thurs 9. so it looks like the models that show low temps could be wrong and it does feel very mild today compared to what we used to.

The northerly air/cold -5 uppers are traveling down the country today and overnight will make it close to mid wales - this may help temps to get near what we need for sleet/snow - not guaranteed

[welshwizard]

bbc wales weather just showed could be possible snow from mid to north wales for tonight and tomor but did not go into detail.just showed rain for most of wales with mild air,showing 10 degrees for north wales tomor afternoon.and 8 for south.

[Bobby]

Even if somehow it does snow it'll be so wet it won't stick anyway. Just concentrate on the next cold spell, our next chance of proper snow and cold.

What I'm doing anyway.

[andymusic]

Even if somehow it does snow it'll be so wet it won't stick anyway. Just concentrate on the next cold spell, our next chance of proper snow and cold.

I know it's only fleeting - but it could have gone either way and upgraded over the past couple of days and we could have been looking at something more major!

[welshwizard]

I know it's only fleeting - but it could have gone either way and upgraded over the past couple of days and we could have been looking at something more major!

to be honest i would take anything other than rain, snow.// sun.// cold.//dry i dont mind but please no rain we have loads of that stuff during our fab summers lol.

[cheshire snow]

Hi

just wanted to say the cold air already digging in fast reports of Wet snow now as far south as Halifax,meto has rain all day for that area

so maybe not all lost maybe that cold air will reach parts of wales overnight..................

C.S

[andymusic]

Hi

just wanted to say the cold air already digging in fast reports of Wet snow now as far south as Halifax,meto has rain all day for that area

so maybe not all lost maybe that cold air will reach parts of wales overnight..................

C.S

You could be right - seems a bit more advanced even than GFS 12z has it -5 uppers a bit further north for the 6pm chart than Halifax - 2-3 hours in advance - mmmmm - all depends how much further the -5 uppers can dig in over night really as to how the front will behave as it beefs up and moves north starting early tomorrow morning!

[Stevetynant]

You could be right - seems a bit more advanced even than GFS 12z has it -5 uppers a bit further north for the 6pm chart than Halifax - 2-3 hours in advance - mmmmm - all depends how much further the -5 uppers can dig in over night really as to how the front will behave as it beefs up and moves north starting early tomorrow morning!

"West based negative NAO becoming established - mild S/SW for us - block is diminishing to the East. Welcome to a mild & wet February. "

Not looking good from the guys over on the model discussion thread - AndyMusic day looks like it could be postponed until next year :0(

[keithlucky]

You could be right - seems a bit more advanced even than GFS 12z has it -5 uppers a bit further north for the 6pm chart than Halifax - 2-3 hours in advance - mmmmm - all depends how much further the -5 uppers can dig in over night really as to how the front will behave as it beefs up and moves north starting early tomorrow morning!

Andy where is the cold air coming from?the front that has pushed through heads back north dragging mild air with it no cold air has the chance to get established sorry its fi.

[Bobby]

It's looking increasingly likely we can write off this week. Cross model agreement from the Big 3 of a wet and windy week. After that, who knows... signals remain promising.

[Marcus_surfer]

Very mild here with some rain at times.

[andymusic]

Andy where is the cold air coming from?the front that has pushed through heads back north dragging mild air with it no cold air has the chance to get established sorry its fi.

The cold air is edging down from the north - Not the east - it all depends how far it gets as to how much it influences the front organising itself to go north from south wales in the morning tomorrow

"West based negative NAO becoming established - mild S/SW for us - block is diminishing to the East. Welcome to a mild & wet February. "

Not looking good from the guys over on the model discussion thread - AndyMusic day looks like it could be postponed until next year :0(

I will have to admit that the signs are now not looking fabulous for our easterly but there are still a fair couple of weeks left of winter to go yet so you never know - I haven't checked how ground hog day went today in America - I'll be back with the info shortly!

Ground hog day - the news is the ground hog did see his shadow - so - winter will be here for a further 6 weeks at least!!!!!!!!!!!!

[marclt]

The cold air is edging down from the north - Not the east - it all depends how far it gets as to how much it influences the front organising itself to go north from south wales in the morning tomorrow

I will have to admit that the signs are now not looking fabulous for our easterly but there are still a fair couple of weeks left of winter to go yet so you never know - I haven't checked how ground hog day went today in America - I'll be back with the info shortly!

Ground hog day - the news is the ground hog did see his shadow - so - winter will be here for a further 6 weeks at least!!!!!!!!!!!!

The temperature gauge says it's mild, but that keen sw'ly wind earlier was pretty cold feeling on the Pembrokeshire coast. The rain hs moved along, although the sunshine promised failed to materialise.

Current stats:

Rel Pressure: 1005 falling

Temp: 6.5c Dew Point: 5.0c

Humidity: 95%

Wind: W 8.2mph

Edited February 2, 2010 by marclt

[benb]

Evening All-

NAE seems to be pretty accurate over the short term. Here's tomorrow 6pm.

Some snow in the north and east.

The slide before showed the snow a little further south.

Doesn't look like the cold air will get into S Wales atm- that system doesn't look dynamic enough to me.

As for the further outlook- does anyone know if NetWeather will refund the radar subscription? Can't see me using mine over the next few weeks! Watching rain and patches of drizzle doesn't quite cut it...

[cheshire snow]

That cold air really spreading south quite quick wet Snow now been reported in parts of North Manchester

Temp in my region this afternoon at 1500 was 6c with a DP of 5c

at 1830 i am now showing a temp of 2c with a DP of 1c,that is quite a drop

maybe some surprises for parts of Wales tomorrow

C.S

[benb]

That cold air really spreading south quite quick wet Snow now been reported in parts of North Manchester

Temp in my region this afternoon at 1500 was 6c with a DP of 5c

at 1830 i am now showing a temp of 2c with a DP of 1c,that is quite a drop

maybe some surprises for parts of Wales tomorrow

C.S

Manchester does seem to be the line atm...

2c and dp 2c at 18.38pm

Hawarden, 40 miles SW, 5 and 4 at the same time.

Still don't think we'll see any snow in South Wales, aside from the top couple of hundred feet of the Brecons!

Love to be wrong though...

(Data on XCWeather)

Edited February 2, 2010 by benb

[Bobby]

Temp 6.6c here, am not at all hopeful.

[benb]

I'm 6.5c here- not a chance!

Although, to be honest, SW Wales has never had a prayer this time round...

I'm watching purely as an interested third party. It may illustrate the 'strength' of the block and give further clues as to what may happen later.

Though, it must be said, I'm getting a little frustrated with 'the block'- is this the third or fourth week it hasn't rather than has? Personally, I've always enjoyed a northerly that was more than an easterly that wasn't!