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The Andy Music Thread


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Mate, everyone is saying not much ppn, the ppn mainly being in the East....i don't see us getting snow.

Hang in there jay - snow will come - out of nowhere usually - get the cold in 1st - then snow will defo come - have faith!

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Posted
  • Location: Penpedairheol - Rhymney Valley 200m asl
  • Location: Penpedairheol - Rhymney Valley 200m asl

Mate, everyone is saying not much ppn, the ppn mainly being in the East....i don't see us getting snow.

Well from a neutral (and largely weather uneducated) point of view. If it is cold and stays cold for a while which is what everyone seems to agree on at the moment - wouldn't it be logical to think that as the prolonged cold air continues- the ground temperature will drop making it more likely that any snow that comes will eventually accumulate on the ground rather than melt and even though it looks initially like the East will bear the brunt of it we in the West will see some snow in the next few weeks - we do rain pretty well in this part of the world- if its cold enough for long enough eventiually the rain will be snow- even if its for a short time? Still a good 4 or 5 weeks left of the depth of winter isn't there?

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Re the 'we get snow a week after US' 'debate', this was linked in the Cold Spell Discussion:

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

I am back online after losing my laptop in a car crash.

Just in time too. The Cold returns, A third wintry spell of signifigance for the UK.

So two weeks ago the GFS model hinted at a trend towards cold Weather at about 8-10th Feb. After 3 days it dropped the idea, something it has done often this year. It then brings it back in the more reliable time frame. Question is does the GFS now have ability to spot these trends deep in fi, then lose its way in the medium term.

So how do we look in Wales?

Most important at this stage is to get the cold established over us, that is now looking really good, so first part will be acheived.

So for first few days we will see very little signifigant snow, think snow grains and snow flurries.

As the week progresses there is more opportunities for slight accumalations with high pressure allowing cold nights with some severe frosts.

Shortwaves will appear and slight changes that will probably add some surprises but where in the UK is the question and its too far out to spot now.

Towards next weekend and beyond there are two possibilities that i can see and both depend on what happens around Wednesday. One is for Low pressure over Med ( Italy) to throw percipitation up over Germany which then heads Westwards towards us. Second is an attack from the Atlantic, Problem with Artlantic attack is that it often gives great snowfall but moves milder air in quickly behind so its short lived. What we need is an undercutting low which gives easterly winds and there is such a low but at this time it moves too far North. There is alot of blocking to the polar areas with good heights, the Med low over Italy has its influence moving North through Europe. Any changes and there will be changes, will give a totally different scenario. The heights over the polar region will happen what we want is higher heights. We need the Atlantic low to skim Northern france.

So cold with increasing chances of snow as the week progresses. A two week cold spell is easily possible from this setup

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

I want any snow to hold out untill atleast the weekend, odly enough im sure ive seen sleet falling this morning or im going mental.

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Towards next weekend and beyond there are two possibilities that i can see and both depend on what happens around Wednesday. One is for Low pressure over Med ( Italy) to throw percipitation up over Germany which then heads Westwards towards us. Second is an attack from the Atlantic, Problem with Artlantic attack is that it often gives great snowfall but moves milder air in quickly behind so its short lived. What we need is an undercutting low which gives easterly winds and there is such a low but at this time it moves too far North. There is alot of blocking to the polar areas with good heights, the Med low over Italy has its influence moving North through Europe. Any changes and there will be changes, will give a totally different scenario. The heights over the polar region will happen what we want is higher heights. We need the Atlantic low to skim Northern france.

So cold with increasing chances of snow as the week progresses. A two week cold spell is easily possible from this setup

I think it's going to be dry and cold (but not very cold) for us in Wales until the weekend. Increasing risk of snow reaching us from the East by the weekend although probably not significant.

The interest though comes later as there is strong agreement from the models an the teleconnections that the high pressure near us will move away to greenland. This could set up a much more potent and snowly Nly, NEly or Ely. It could also allow the Atlantic to attack which could mean battleground snow events as you mentioned.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Well from a neutral (and largely weather uneducated) point of view. If it is cold and stays cold for a while which is what everyone seems to agree on at the moment - wouldn't it be logical to think that as the prolonged cold air continues- the ground temperature will drop making it more likely that any snow that comes will eventually accumulate on the ground rather than melt and even though it looks initially like the East will bear the brunt of it we in the West will see some snow in the next few weeks - we do rain pretty well in this part of the world- if its cold enough for long enough eventiually the rain will be snow- even if its for a short time? Still a good 4 or 5 weeks left of the depth of winter isn't there?

Steve - Valentine's weekend (next weekend) is looking like when we'll start to get more snow - we may get some light snow showers before then but towards next weekend we get the prize - snow is on it's way for Wales!

I suppose when all said and done a battleground snow event with the cold winning is the ideal event for Wales - loads of snow and it stays as well!cold.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

9quote name='Tonyh' date='07 February 2010 - 10:59 ' timestamp='1265540385' post='1766899']

Thats an uncalled for attack on many people on Netweather. There are many valued contributors to the model threads who endeavour to educate, have many years experience in their field, and help us to decipher what the future weather will be like.

There are people on the other hand, some relatively recent to the forums, who are self-opinionated, ill-informed, and not open to being educated and informed by more experienced people. The contributions of the latter, although adding humour, are often misleading through basic ignorance and through seemingly not wanting to respect differing viewpoints. Comes across as attention seeking and even rude as above.

Behave in what way, could you elaborate with examples please?

On the whole I value the contributors from the model threads and there is (thanks to the moderators removing self-opinionated and irrelevant posts) respected insight, based on many years of experience, that we should be grateful for and not make disrespectful comments like this.

Edited by benb
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Posted
  • Location: Penpedairheol - Rhymney Valley 200m asl
  • Location: Penpedairheol - Rhymney Valley 200m asl

Steve - Valentine's weekend (next weekend) is looking like when we'll start to get more snow - we may get some light snow showers before then but towards next weekend we get the prize - snow is on it's way for Wales!

I suppose when all said and done a battleground snow event with the cold winning is the ideal event for Wales - loads of snow and it stays as well!cold.gif

Wales Valentines day Snowmaggedon

I'm still a disciple Andy - keep the faith :0)

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

How can people seriously talk of a Valentines blizzard thats a week out ? nobody knows what wednesday will hold properly yet let alone next week. Let's not get ahead of ourselves you always do andy, ramp ramp ramp lol. I love cold and hate mild but i dont ramp, yet you will complain when the mild are ramping. Can't we just get rid of ramping because it brings false hope and then people get dissapointed. Good it will cool down again hasnt really got mild here warmes being 7 degrees certainly not Mild, so this winter is definetly been good and great prospects still to come, the fields look like they do in august yellow from hay harvest its a great site to see.

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Posted
  • Location: Penpedairheol - Rhymney Valley 200m asl
  • Location: Penpedairheol - Rhymney Valley 200m asl

I just enjoy the sense of anticipation and don't need too much scientific evidence- I leave that to you more experienced types but try to pick up a few pointers along the way. In my short stay on this forum which I find to be very friendly and informative and the output model discussions (perhaps a bit too scientific for my level of knowledge but interesting none the less) the one thing I have learned is you can't look too far ahead - anything else is based on trends and the weather has a habit of doing what you least expect just when it feels like it.

Having said that - I hope we get some good snow and Andy has been pretty spot on so far this winter so for the time being Valentines day remains ticked off in the diary (although I suspect that was the wife hoping for Champagne again)

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Posted
  • Location: tycoch - swansea
  • Location: tycoch - swansea

Good afternoon to you all.

I would like to clear something up here.

If ANDY MUSIC says it will snow a week after it does in USA ,then that is what will happen.

Fact, opinion,theory,myth, what ever.

If ANDY says so, then it is so.

The oracle has spoken,there will be heavy snow within one week.

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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

Steve - Valentine's weekend (next weekend) is looking like when we'll start to get more snow - we may get some light snow showers before then but towards next weekend we get the prize - snow is on it's way for Wales!

I suppose when all said and done a battleground snow event with the cold winning is the ideal event for Wales - loads of snow and it stays as well!cold.gif

Rubbish. A week is far too far away to be that specific- you simply don't know what will happen by then.

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Posted
  • Location: tycoch - swansea
  • Location: tycoch - swansea

Rubbish. A week is far too far away to be that specific- you simply don't know what will happen by then.

Andy knows everything that will happen, he predicted in the freezer by February 8th from many weeks ago.

Andy is the all seeing eye.

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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

Andy knows everything that will happen, he predicted in the freezer by February 8th from many weeks ago.

Andy is the all seeing eye.

Quite right- along with numerous other predictions of armaggedon style snow fall. MetO Severe weather warnings out for Wales tommorow: total green-out. Be careful out there!

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Posted
  • Location: tycoch - swansea
  • Location: tycoch - swansea

Quite right- along with numerous other predictions of armaggedon style snow fall. MetO Severe weather warnings out for Wales tommorow: total green-out. Be careful out there!

There may have been the odd blip, snow at 8 degrees, the -12 degree celsius forecast, and other minor items,but this happened all before Andy found his groundhog.

Nobody else thought of looking to the groundhog for advice.

Whilst we were all scratching our heads and the models flipped one way then the other, Andy thought outside of the box.

Positive thinking will bring the snow to Wales.

If we all follow Andys lead and think it will happen, then as a collective unit, the huge will and desire will suck the snow over Wales.

Join the cult of the groundhog.

All rise and salute our leader ANDY MUSIC

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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

There may have been the odd blip, snow at 8 degrees, the -12 degree celsius forecast, and other minor items,but this happened all before Andy found his groundhog.

Nobody else thought of looking to the groundhog for advice.

Whilst we were all scratching our heads and the models flipped one way then the other, Andy thought outside of the box.

Positive thinking will bring the snow to Wales.

If we all follow Andys lead and think it will happen, then as a collective unit, the huge will and desire will suck the snow over Wales.

Join the cult of the groundhog.

All rise and salute our leader ANDY MUSIC

I will obey. I will obey. I will obey.

I knew I shouldn't have had that sense of humour bypass...

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

There may have been the odd blip, snow at 8 degrees, the -12 degree celsius forecast, and other minor items,but this happened all before Andy found his groundhog.

Nobody else thought of looking to the groundhog for advice.

Whilst we were all scratching our heads and the models flipped one way then the other, Andy thought outside of the box.

Positive thinking will bring the snow to Wales.

If we all follow Andys lead and think it will happen, then as a collective unit, the huge will and desire will suck the snow over Wales.

Join the cult of the groundhog.

All rise and salute our leader ANDY MUSIC

Quite right, how could any of us even dared to have cast doubts!

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