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Model Output Discussion:


Ed Stone

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UKMO looking very isolated this morning.

GFS/ECM are poor as TEITS says.Nervously waiting for ecm ens,i really hope this op run is out of kilter with the rest.If it isnt,and the ens have flipped AGAIN,coupled with the gfs ens i think its looking bad.

I bet jay wynne is wondering if that monthly update is alread looking way out.

It seems we can only have confidence in the models when mild is showing,every time they go cold its always a rollercoaster ride.

:nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    See the changes with each GFS run for this Saturday at 1pm

    GFS 0z 31st January run: Deep low near SW Ireland

    http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2010013100-0-156.png?0

    GFS 06z run: Deep low off Donegal, further north than 0z run for the same time

    http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2010013106-0-150.png?6

    GFS 12z run: Deep low centred around SE Scotland, severe gales in the south

    http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2010013112-0-144.png?12

    GFS 18z run: Deep low much further west, same line of longitude as Iceland

    http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2010013118-0-138.png?18

    1st February

    GFS 0z run: Two deep lows dumbbelling south of Iceland

    http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2010020100-0-132.png?0

    GFS 06z run: Deep low way out west

    http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2010020106-0-126.png?6

    GFS 12z run: Deep low way out west, more high pressure influence for the UK

    http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2010020112-0-120.png?12

    GFS 18z run: Deep low way out west but influencing the UK

    http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2010020118-0-114.png?18

    Latest run: Deep low way out west, with some high pressure influence

    http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-108.png?0

    Just as a snapshot, it seems to me that GFS has trended away at least for this Saturday from that deep low in the Atlantic completely dominating to one of less influence.

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    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield

    UKMO looking very isolated this morning.

    GFS/ECM are poor as TEITS says.Nervously waiting for ecm ens,i really hope this op run is out of kilter with the rest.If it isnt,and the ens have flipped AGAIN,coupled with the gfs ens i think its looking bad.

    I bet jay wynne is wondering if that monthly update is alread looking way out.

    It seems we can only have confidence in the models when mild is showing,every time they go cold its always a rollercoaster ride.

    :nonono:

    I think it unliklely that on the basis of one set of runs Jay Wynne is questioning the monthly outlook, just as I am sure the met office will not change all their outlooks based on one run, it would be chaos if the world outside this forum changed their minds so quickly.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Nice example there Kevin of how the models do change their emphasis over several days and different runs.

    The two 12z runs also show a large difference between each other as do the two 00z runs..

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

    http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm961.gif

    http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

    Thats the trouble looking too far ahead this is still the crucial time.

    And the fax go with an undercutter low,most models go for an undercut low of some sort.

    http://wzkarten.de/pics/brack2a.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

    Ah you have to laugh don't you, I can imagine everyone waking up expecting to see the models

    firming up on the freeze starting next week, but instead the models (at first glance) seem to be

    all over the place. Since I am convinced of the change to very cold weather next week my money

    is on the UKMO model. Up to t96 everything looks good from all models but...

    the ECM deepens the low to the north of Scandinavia which has the effect of shunting the high to

    the east away from us.The GFS has a small low that develops over SE German that moves north to

    link with the low over Scandinavia again cutting off the high to the east.

    Because of the downstream modeling of the GFS and the ECM it allows the troughing in the Atlantic

    further east and north cutting off the colder feed from the east.The UKMO has none of this and with

    more trough disruption under way to our southwest a very cold pattern is well under way.I am quite

    sure which way the Met update will go today, the outlook is cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland

    Lets not forget GP has said a few time that it is possible we will get a west based -NAO which could lead to a mild February-he is not sure so how can we mere mortals know,I am afraid it is more waiting for us all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    The OZ ECM was certainly warmer than the mean although the mean is slightly higher than yesterdays 12Z.

    http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

    Interesting how the control run which of course doesn't have its starting data changed goes in a completely different direction.

    The GME sums it up for me this morning.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme1321.gif

    At the moment this could easily go either way and I would firmly put the odds at 50/50.

    I will also add that because the operationals are so volatile the ensembles don't mean very much at the moment. This is the sort of situation where if the GFS Ops trend towards cold the GEFS members will suddenly change.

    Finally I will add that this is very much reminding me of Dec 05 but probably even more extreme. The models did exactly the same progged an E,ly but this disappeared and only suddenly appeared at +72.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

    Well the model drama continues this morning with the UKMO the lone survivor amongst a sea of less than inspiring model output. I think the uncertainty will finally be over this evening as the model divergence starts quite early at 96hrs.

    For the timebeing I think we need to hold judgement on the output because of some uncertainty upstream which impacts on the upper trough in the Atlantic.

    The ECM ensembles at least for the Netherlands show quite a few colder solutions over there with the operational run towards the top end of members for days 7 to 10.

    http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/default_pluim.asp?r=midden

    The NOAA discussions for upstream talk alot about events near the eastern USA and Canada which is quite relevant to downstream in western Europe, the key quotes from them this morning:

    BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MODELS/ENSEMBLES DISPLAY MODERATE

    TO POOR AGREEMENT AND SIGNIFICANT CONTINUITY CHANGES FOR DETAILS

    WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF LOW HGTS ALOFT OVER SERN CANADA INTO THE

    NERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. THE 00Z GFS AND FARTHER NWD/WWD ECMWF

    AND CMC ALL APPEAR FAIRLY EXTREME COMPARED TO 00Z GEFS AND 12Z

    ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WITH THEIR DEEP CLOSED LOWS THAT TRACK

    OVER/NEAR THE UPR MS VLY/GRTLKS REGION SUN-TUE. TELECONNECTIONS

    RELATIVE TO THE CORE OF POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES FCST TO BE JUST N

    OF HUDSON BAY BY THE D+8 TIME FRAME DO NOT OFFER MUCH SUPPORT FOR

    THE STRENGTH OF NEGATIVE ANOMALIES ASSOC WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC

    CLOSED LOWS... INSTEAD PLACING A MEAN CLOSED LOW OF MODERATE DEPTH

    OVER OR JUST W OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES

    FOR DAYS 3-5 FRI-SUN... A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN

    SOLNS PROVIDES A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR REPRESENTING CURRENT

    CONSENSUS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING

    THE ERN STATES FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AND TO ACCOUNT FOR DETAIL

    DIFFS ELSEWHERE. THEN DAYS 6-7 ADJUST TO A BLEND OF 00Z GEFS/12Z

    ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO ACCOUNT FOR THEIR BETTER COMPARISON TO

    TELECONNECTION-FAVORED FLOW VERSUS SOME OF THE MORE EXTREME

    ASPECTS OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC

    So still some room for changes in the model output and with northern blocking not going anywhere fast it would be premature to be reaching for the prozac just yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

    Well the model drama continues this morning with the UKMO the lone survivor amongst a sea of less than inspiring model output. I think the uncertainty will finally be over this evening as the model divergence starts quite early at 96hrs.

    To be honest, I don't think we can say the the uncertainty will ever be over until there is a huge pattern change and we lose the northern blocking/ -AO etc, ending up in a more 'normal' pattern... this being some weeks away I expect.

    The models have been flip-flopping all over the place for some weeks now and in all honesty I think we can only look at them for trends if anything beyond t+96 or so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    No real changes on the 06z output out to +96

    Still a huge 940mb low out to the west spoiling it all.

    Rtavn961.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    Early stages still a nightmare for us coldies.

    I wonder if the mid-term may hold more hope though...Let's see...

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Ah you have to laugh don't you, I can imagine everyone waking up expecting to see the models

    firming up on the freeze starting next week, but instead the models (at first glance) seem to be

    all over the place. Since I am convinced of the change to very cold weather next week my money

    is on the UKMO model. Up to t96 everything looks good from all models but...

    the ECM deepens the low to the north of Scandinavia which has the effect of shunting the high to

    the east away from us.The GFS has a small low that develops over SE German that moves north to

    link with the low over Scandinavia again cutting off the high to the east.

    Because of the downstream modeling of the GFS and the ECM it allows the troughing in the Atlantic

    further east and north cutting off the colder feed from the east.The UKMO has none of this and with

    more trough disruption under way to our southwest a very cold pattern is well under way.I am quite

    sure which way the Met update will go today, the outlook is cold.

    lol i love your confidence but i do think your going to be wrong,

    although its very unclear what happens next the general theme set out by all models is unsettled and when you see ensembles going to the milder side i have little confidence on future developments in cold getting here.

    although cold will always be close by i think the last two weeks of febuary could be intresting even into march maybe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    I suspect the models will be showing a lot more Northern blocking over the next few days but I can't help feeling it will be too far North to influence anywhere but possibly Scotland and maybe the far north of England (not good for MBY).

    The further South the more exposed to Atlantic influence. I haven't really seen any signs recently that even a strong block to our North will influence us enough here in the South. Not that I believe a lot of what the models are saying at the moment though! And with a deeply -AO, an NAO due to start to drop shortly, favourably positioned tropical convection and the recent SSW, I am certainly NOT discounting this changing and changing quickly.

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    Guest North Sea Snow Convection

    I think this all comes down to the downwelling negative zonal anomalies in the stratosphere and their anticipated arrival.

    Can they arrive soon enough against other favourable background factors while they last?

    The uncertainty is attached here I think as to why the easterly prognosis keeps coming and going. A third recent pulse of upper warming is now suggesting an official MMW will occur - but it is a close thing.

    Another delay to an easterly is a possibility. The UKMO being right is another possibility to keep things on schedule, or, failing both of those, there is the possibility of too little occuring too late of course.

    However, for the time being, there is still a good chance that the favourable outcome will occur. UKMO has been reliable when it said 'no' lets hope it is as reliable in saying 'yes'

    The other problem, as stated on Sunday, is the orientation of low pressure in the mid/western atlantic and steering atlantic air towards us due to a west based -NAO. Perhaps we might have to accept the blocked pattern is going to set up too far west for us to benefit? Or maybe not? Who knows, other than wait and see.unknw.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Well the 06Z is a good example of how you can have extensive blocking to our N which means absolutely nothing if your on the wrong side of the LP.

    However im beginning to have one of my instinctive moments. Im currently wondering whether we might have to look NE rather than E. I feel there is a chance of the models trending back towards cold but this coming from the NE rather than the E.

    Whatever happens the 12Zs should make fasinating viewing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Sunny and Dry with a Hard Frost.
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey

    Good lord, what a total shambles. Raging schizophrenia seems to have broken out amongst the models (followed swiftly by the model followers if this malarky continues much longer!). I can honestly say I have absolutely no idea of what we will see next week and was sucked in by the shift to cold outlooks yesterday when I should know better. Usually you get a reasonable indicator by now.....I call this situation the 'flicked hall carpet' scenario because the 'ensembles' curves are inverting with such huge changes day to day instead of the gradual progress of normal times.

    The pattern since December would suggest the Atlantic is unlikely to go into full force at this point (backed up with the upper atmospheric data) however perhaps we are going to get a reflection of Novembers raging winds and rain. Whatever, it is certainly gripping stuff.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

    The Norwegian shortwave is quite important in how the models move forward. If this is being overplayed then the domino effect on the rest of the output would be quite large.

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