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Model Output Discussion:


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Well I am very optimistic in regards to this afternoons and evenings model runs.

I think the 06z GFS run has the right idea about the spoiler area of energy over

Scandinavia that a few of us have been talking about. With the heights surrounding

it, it has no option but to fill.

I know this is not a done deal yet but I think by the end of today we will be well on

the way to seeing what the weather from the east has in store for us next week.

Fingers crossed.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Those charts are very different, the 1985 one has 985 low pressure over Russia while today's one has a 1045mb high in the same place.

Yes we know they are different but they are similar and he did a good job finding them. :yahoo:

I still think the GEM 00z will take some beating today, a truly stunning run with bitter Easterlies followed by a Northerly near the end. More model drama just about to unfold.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Aye. There's always a message on 'another forum' claiming that there's a 'shortage of data;' that always happens when anything other than a Beast From the East is progged??? But, at the end of the day (excuse the cliche) the weather will do what the weather will do... :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, W.Yorkshire
  • Location: Huddersfield, W.Yorkshire

Hello weather watchers!....missing data?...please can someone explain this coz im both nervous and confused ?

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Hello weather watchers!....missing data?...please can someone explain this coz im both nervous and confused ?

It's a common excuse these days given to a particular/s model when it isn't showing what the per wants it to show. Does appear this time it's being used an excuse because it IS showing what they want to see.

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, W.Yorkshire
  • Location: Huddersfield, W.Yorkshire

do you mean todays model outputs?

edit....do you mean in respect of todays model outputs so far?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

There is missing data in every model run, it's very rare for a model run to have all the data that it *should* have, simply becuase over 1000 streams of data from over 20,000 indervidual sources come into each and every model run.!

quite simply if one fo the streams of data is insufficent in quantity or quality, they will use the data for that particular stream will be taken from the previous run.

What's happen on the 06Z though has nothing to do with dodgy data...

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

There's a message on 'the other weather forum' that moderately critical data was missing plus that there was low data on the 06z GFS run. Or was that also mentioned here and I missed it?

best to ignore these remarks as they are usually incorrect and due to people with not enough necessary knowledge to understand what the initial technical message meant.

data is almost always missing or corrupt to a degree-and is usually of little consequence in the overall model output.

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne

Hello weather watchers!....missing data?...please can someone explain this coz im both nervous and confused ?

There isn't any less data than normal I wouldn't have thought, but it might be possible that because the blocking is set to appear in areas with little data collection so predictions are therefore inaccurate?

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, W.Yorkshire
  • Location: Huddersfield, W.Yorkshire

Thank you iceberg....I was not aware that there were that many 'streams' and that many individual sources..no wonder theres so much confusion when trying to come to some sort of guided outcome and agreement with the models. Does this also apply to the American and Euro models?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Thank you iceberg....I was not aware that there were that many 'streams' and that many individual sources..no wonder theres so much confusion when trying to come to some sort of guided outcome and agreement with the models. Does this also apply to the American and Euro models?

Very much all models, as most of the data streams feed into all the GM's, except for things such as SST's where each country/area tends to have it's own sat data for other reasons as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, W.Yorkshire
  • Location: Huddersfield, W.Yorkshire

hmmm, I would of thought that there would be more data collecting from any possible blocking feature, especially with respect to a previous run which showed that really deep low pressure system out to our s/w....surely if that met any substantial cold blocking to our east the out come would be quite serious indeed....not saying that would happen, but surely it has to be borne in mind?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

GFS 12Z seems to be following the 06Z for most of the regions of uncertainty, slightly more instability around Scandy and less ridging. It certainty is looking different to the UKMET00Z at T60

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

best to ignore these remarks as they are usually incorrect and due to people with not enough necessary knowledge to understand what the initial technical message meant.

data is almost always missing or corrupt to a degree-and is usually of little consequence in the overall model output.

Indeed John and NOAA are excellent at putting out a clear written statement if it there are significant data issues that affect the GFS. If there ain't no statement, there ain't no data issue.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

Yes The only issue I can see is the models are just genuinely struggling with the potential outcome.

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, W.Yorkshire
  • Location: Huddersfield, W.Yorkshire

Thank you, sorry if it was a bit off topic, but I should of listened to Stephen yesterday!!...I will continue to try and not look too deeply into each and every model run but remain as confused as the data is at the present time!!

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Subtle but poor signals from the 12z

Not thaaat different but the differecnes could make a big difference

Jet not digging as far south, much small ridge in crucial area to our north. etc

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Even at 90 hrs not looking as good here. :) Jet not playing ball and the shortwaves on the return.who nos tho

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

One shortwave problem overcome then another one pops up! I hate these shortwaves!, because of that piece of energy left over near Iceland the road to cold once again becomes more complicated.

Some good news the UKMO trends towards the GFS at 96hrs and yes you guessed it, it also has that piece of energy near Iceland!

Edited by nick sussex
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