Model Output Discussion:

[Bobby]

Looking promising at +120

[Iceberg]

Superb METO 120T just took my breath away, a total turn around.

Good METO as early as 96 tbh, Fair to say the METO has backed down !!!!

[SP1986]

In the near time frame (lets take some good advice from the likes of Tamara, TEITS etc) and forget 120+ for now, why? because there's so much to divulge in before then. It's clear even at 72 hours the GFS is really struggling because the high pressure shapes are changing not only each of the four runs but also each of the daily equivalent runs.

This is such a complex situation it really is fascinating.

Right now would it be completely silly to put your money on a middle ground scenario?

I think that's quite sensible right now actually if you have a view to take brave prediction in past 4 days.

[Bobby]

Much much better UKMO, it's backtracked:

+120

[conor123]

The charts just seem to throw completely random solutions one after another lately, of course now the GFS is backing away from the cold again the UKMO is jumping on board, its pointless really saying wait for the ECM when the 00z charts are going to be the complete opposite.

Were no closer to seeing an easterly than this time yesterday.

Edited February 3, 2010 by conor123

[Iceberg]

What we can say is that according to the GFS the 8/9th of Feb as -8/-10 850's entering the UK on an easterly yet again. !

and that the METO is backtracked even in the shorter time frame, will the ECM come on board ?

Totally agree beyond 168+ is pretty pointless atm.

[Geordiesnow]

Its one of those situations where we could get something colder but we are not too far away from something more milder. Its certainly being an interesting battle between the Atlantic and the block to our east, neither are giving up without a fight it would seem.

I'm not too fussed about the 12Z showing an easterly or not, it still has the height rises and that all that matters at this moment in time.

[Eugene]

Looking pretty cold next week now colder the further north you are, maybe mild in the far south, FI is T+72hrs+ atm so lots of upgrades to look forward to or downgrades.

[Bobby]

GFS is looking pretty good still

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-156.png?12

[Lynxus]

i could someone please explain what noaa stands for im trying to learn about the models and weather thanks. dale.

As far as i understand , The guys refer to the charts / data provided by : http://www.noaa.gov/

[Matty M]

Booomm

Shame its so far off though.

[nick sussex]

OMG don't look at the UKMO 144hrs! oh no don't do this, its such a tease! unbelievable change in its output! Unfortunately to get from 96hrs to 144hrs is very complicated,and this IMO is still a concern, I much preferred the GFS 06hrs run with that stronger initial ridge from the NE, that had a larger margin for error, the UKMO and GFS this evening are knife edge stuff!

Edited February 3, 2010 by nick sussex

[SP1986]

Yes the outputs not at the later time frame are just basically a mess now, I think the sensible thing is to ignore past 120 now.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hmmm, lots to think about today, with a great UKMO following the GFS 6Z snowfest and what appears to be a fairly stellar 12Z, with a nice set of ensembles toohttp://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100203/06/t850Fife.png

ECM 12Z looks like it might just be a clincher to perhaps a trend towards a colder outlook, though I'm not going to suggest this pattern is in any way nailed on. But this does look to be far more likely than the easterly shown last week, as it is in a closer timeframe, combined with UKMO support thus far, but as Stephen says, this is still a developing situation and liable to change.

LS

[PB22]

Interesting outputs tonight so far, but as others have already said, a complex set up and a lot to get through before we can be sure of the pattern. One thing I will say is that despite all the ups and downs of the model output lately, the period around February 8th (give or take a day or so) has been suggested as the start of a possible cold spell for some days now, and this continues to be the case.

[nick sussex]

Not unbelievable nick if you saw UKMO on monday or tuesday morning.

There is too much that can go wrong from 96hrs to 144hrs with both the GFS and UKMO and I'd much prefer that shortwave near Iceland to disappear, which is unlikely.

Of course I'm happy to see the UKMO backtrack but there are some large hurdles to overcome.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The GFS and UKMO at T72 are very similar, maybe we are starting to see some agreement at last, fingers crossed!!!!

[Eugene]

The charts just seem to throw completely random solutions one after another lately, of course now the GFS is backing away from the cold again the UKMO is jumping on board, its pointless really saying wait for the ECM when the 00z charts are going to be the complete opposite.

Were no closer to seeing an easterly than this time yesterday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png - Really conor, after seeing UKMO 12Z and GFS 12Z you would have we to say we are closer to seeing a continental easterly flow at some point next week.

I wish i had the crystal ball like you did in predicting tomorrow mornings 00Z runs, a very pessimistic post from yourself not that i`m surprised as its your speciality.

[Bobby]

A 1970s style southern blizzard now showing on GFS at +168:

[SP1986]

I dont think we are closer any to anything at the moment, it's less likely to be Atlantic dominated than yesterdays outputs showed but if the other day I said it was 50-50, today I really do mean it. The genuine reality is that anything from the latest UKMO all the way to the latest GFS output could occur in the realistic time frame.

[cooling climate]

It looks to me as though the UKMO and the GFS are fairly similar out to t120.

The only main difference is that the GFS does not drop the low heights south

like the UKMO does.

I would like to see the UKMO t168 chart please.

Plenty to be cheerful about tonight.

[Totoro]

Careful people, don't get carried away. Anything past t+72 really is FI and very uncertain, whatever the model.

[Geordiesnow]

Good too see the UKMO is showing an easterly which means the GFS could be onto something. Unfortunately, even if the ECM comes into line, it does not mean an easterly will occur. Too much model uncertainty and swings and roundabouts with the big 3 lately means we have to be cautious and not to get ahead of ourselves.

It does show though how much the weather can change within a day.

[Rollo]

The ups and downs over the last 3 days have been remarkable and even now I believe we really have not made much progress to the fabled easterly, the charts tomorrow could easily reverse todays trends bearing mind the uncertainty at the moment. My advice is do not get too excited yet,follow GP's and TEITS's posts and hope all continues to point to winter have one hell of a last fling.

[Snowyowl9]

I suspect the way the jet is going which is further south as shown on this chart this low was much further north yesterday.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn721.png

Now the T120 chart,the jet is trending south.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12015.png

Now if this happens,a very cold undercut east wind.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1681.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1682.png