Model Output Discussion:

[Nick F]

Well, it would be nice if all the models finally latch on to the idea of an easterly developing tonight post t+120, as all this chopping and changing over the last 3-4 days has become a bit tiring.

Fairly good agreement between 12z GFS and UKMO at t+144 wrt to ridge building and centring near Iceland as the Atlantic trough stalls and pumps WAA north, then beyond that we would assume the Atlantic trough will disrupt with energy undercutting to the block to the N. A very nice looking upper cold pool over NE Europe/NW Russia advecting west on UKMO would surely help the evolution of an easterly too. But still the ECM later to perhaps throw a spanner in the works!

[SP1986]

That's the problem, agreement was showing with the southwesterly now that's turned, there's no reason why the next lot won't change to something else.

I think agreement is the problem more than anything

[TEITS]

Now that is what I call a stella run from the UKMO. if a +168/+192 existed parts of the UK would be experiencing strong E,ly winds, prolonged heavy snowfalls, upper temps around -14C as the SW underneath the HP backs W.

GEFS mean at +138.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-138.png?12

Control run looks a belter at this stage.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-138.png?12

Back to reality and these past 48hrs the models have resembled a game of tug of war. At times we have seen a pull towards mild but for the moment we have seen a tug towards cold. For the cold to win this game we need to see this consistently modelled until tomorrow night and only then does it look likely the cold will win the game.

[Eugene]

OMG what a control and with good support too

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-174.png?12

More news bulletins of poor londoners digging their cars out of the snow

[Frosty.]

That's the problem, agreement was showing with the southwesterly now that's turned, there's no reason why the next lot won't change to something else.

I think agreement is the problem more than anything :lol:

It could easily flip back to a s'ly or sw'ly but 2 more positives from the gfs & ukmo 12z respectively, at least the models are a big improvement on sunday's 00z output but it will take a few more nerve jangling days of model watching before we know whether a cold blast from the east will occur or not.

[Bobby]

Flicking through the ensembles there are some mouth watering runs there, a good few better than the op. Almost every run goes for a potent easterly.

[BarnetBlizzard]

The GEFS ensembles are amazing! Many runs showing -15 hitting london not too far away. IF the ECM can keep this up i think we SHOULD be heading for an easterly, although it wouldn't be too surpising if we were back to mild south-westerlies tommrow

[Frosty.]

Now that is what I call a stella run from the UKMO. if a +168/+192 existed parts of the UK would be experiencing strong E,ly winds, prolonged heavy snowfalls, upper temps around -14C as the SW underneath the HP backs W.

GEFS mean at +138.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-138.png?12

Control run looks a belter at this stage.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-138.png?12

Back to reality and these past 48hrs the models have resembled a game of tug of war. At times we have seen a pull towards mild but for the moment we have seen a tug towards cold. For the cold to win this game we need to see this consistently modelled until tomorrow night and only then does it look likely the cold will win the game.

I think it will be around saturday before we know for sure either way teits, lots more twists and turns to come with minor changes making a huge overall difference, it's very good to see the upgrade in the ukmo 12z though as the 00z was very ordinary.

[Strider]

The Netweather Datacentre isn't working properly :lol:

Great charts though.

[TEITS]

Mean almost touching -10C for Cambs.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100203/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

Quiet a few members touching -15C which isn't surprising considering the general trend and the UKMO output.

[SLEETY]

Flicking through the ensembles there are some mouth watering runs there, a good few better than the op. Almost every run goes for a potent easterly.

Yes thay are fantastic,a chance for the gfs to get some of its credibility back.The ukmo has backtracked and is now showing an easterly,we just need a good run from the ECM ,surely thay all can't flip back again tomorrow.Never seen such chaos before from the models,most odd<_<

[The PIT]

Ah another flip from the GFS can it make is mind up??? Yup even the UKMO shows an easterly in FI land. However this has been the story for the last six weeks mostly and it hasn't happened so if you wish to hold your breath be my guest.

[thegreat316]

Yes thay are fantastic,a chance for the gfs to get some of its credibility back.The ukmo has backtracked and is now showing an easterly,we just need a good run from the ECM ,surely thay all can't flip back again tomorrow.Never seen such chaos before from the models,most odd<_<

NOGAPS showing an easterley aswell. Its good to see the lesser models hedging away from the soutwesterleys. lets see if JMA/ECM follow.

[Eugene]

We've had some cracking cold spells already this winter with the news full of people getting caught out in deep snow, i don't get all this it wont come off and that GFS needs to get its credibility back it did very well in forecasting that epic first half of January and even in the last two less cold weeks places are seeing snow as in the north today.

This isn't your typical post 88/89 british winter its like the 80`s ones.

[yamkin]

NOGAPS showing an easterley aswell. Its good to see the lesser models hedging away from the soutwesterleys. lets see if JMA/ECM follow.

NOGAPS is looking good.

[Solar Cycles]

We've had some cracking cold spells already this winter with the news full of people getting caught out in deep snow, i don't get all this it wont come off and that GFS needs to get its credibility back it did very well in forecasting that epic first half of January and even in the last two less cold weeks places are seeing snow as in the north today.

This isn't your typical post 88/89 british winter its like the 80`s ones.

Wasn't they like the 80's ones also?

Edit, must read all of post before commenting!

Edited February 3, 2010 by Solar Cycles

[Geordiesnow]

Ah another flip from the GFS can it make is mind up??? Yup even the UKMO shows an easterly in FI land. However this has been the story for the last six weeks mostly and it hasn't happened so if you wish to hold your breath be my guest.

Obviously you have been in another country if you thought this has been the same old story in the last 6 weeks. Obviously a tongue in cheek or comment or i hope it is!

Actually in fact, its been around a week that the GFS has been toying with the idea of cold easterlies, with the ECM toying with the idea at times aswell. Probably felt like 6 weeks though with the constant changes in the output.

At least the easterly appears to be closer now than in recent times but i'm sure there be more changes to come yet but it would be nice too see some consistancy appearing in the output now.

[Solar Cycles]

NOGAPS is looking good.

Some cracking charts there, they have a 78/79 look about them!

[Duane S.]

Well, I've just digested the latest daily model swing and have to say that this time I am not surprised. The signs were there from last night.

Whether or not the ECM Op can match the GFS 06z, 12z and UKMO cold outputs today or not won't make any difference to the likelehood of this happening (or not) IMO (although I suspect it will be a good'un). The models still have different ideas but have started to come together just about in time.

It looks like we in the South and West may have to go through a more agonising period than those further up North initially but that was always likely to be the case with this setup. I stll think the 8th/9th maybe a tad early for most of the UK but it won't be a million miles off.

The GFS control is an absolute beuat of a run! In fact the ens have been improving run on run recently.

Unfortunately nothing is likely to be resolved still for a few days yet to come and maybe not even then if recent days are anything to go by!

[bluearmy]

i agree with stephen to an extent re post t72 - we should take the general trend from all of the runs today. GEM 12z isnt quite as good as its 00z run but its trending the same way.

the tipping point re the atlantic energy is 24 hours closer than it was at this point yesterday. i posted then that if the models were going to be wrong about going down the atlantic route, they must have the atlantic wrong pre T96. That was plausible. what isnt plausible is that they would have it wrong at T72. therefore, if the models showed atlantic driving ne on todays 12z's, we would have to accept that this was going to be the result for the time being.

it seems that a coldish period looks solid for northern parts next week. the south may be too close to the trough. we have lost the deep cold surface temps to our se by the weekend.

the situation remains fluid but i would have thought that the trough driving ne into scandi is now very unlikely, given the x model agreement at T72/T96.

[yamkin]

Some cracking charts there, they have a 78/79 look about them!

See how I started with NOGAPS 12Z 66h & 120h in my previous post. To me they are in a reliable time frame. NOGAPS 12Z 168h, 174h & 180h look great in FI. There is good agreement with the 12Z 66h charts:

JMA & ECM 12Z 72h look good too

Edited February 3, 2010 by yamkin

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I don't think anyone is going to complain too much about this to start with

Lets see where we go from here now...

[MR EXTREMES]

I don't think anyone is going to complain too much about this to start with

Lets see where we go from here now...

oh my is that a nice height build i see east of greenland.

or should i say over greenland.

and to our east first chart that good looks very very good.

Edited February 3, 2010 by badboy657

[Totoro]

That ECM t+72 will do fine. Not taking much notice of anything beyond that.

[Iceberg]

ECM at 96Z has YES with bells on.

WE HAVE MODEL AGREEMENT !!!!!!!

The rest as they say is history.

Edited February 3, 2010 by Iceberg