Model Output Discussion:

[Bobby]

Stunning ECM, very very cold and snowy. Big 3 agreement at last.

[MR EXTREMES]

Did you keep the PM I sent you.

My word what a run so far.

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?03-0

i must admit im gobsmacked im also worried about getting excited,

so how many models prog a easterly am i correct?

[Bolton67]

Did you keep the PM I sent you.

My word what a run so far.

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?03-0

Bravo Dave.

[yamkin]

Did someone nuke the atlantic LP like I suggested yesterday.

Enjoy the rest of the show.

UKMO 12Z 144h & ECM 12Z 144h are both

[snowray]

OMG! T168 ECM

Edited February 3, 2010 by snowray

[PB22]

Satisfactory output tonight, but extreme caution still needed (probably talking to myself though!). We need to see a consistent trend continued tomorrow and there is still plenty of opportunities for the set-up to go wrong. Far, far too early for backslapping - its not even started to happen yet.

[TEITS]

i must admit im gobsmacked im also worried about getting excited,

so how many models prog a easterly am i correct?

I don't want to put a jinx on it but this is the first time the GFS/UKMO/ECM all roughly agree on an E,ly.

However despite remaining cautious the game of tug of war has firmly been pulled towards cold during today.

The ECM +168 looks even better on Wetterzentrale. If that verified someone would witness an incredible snow storm.

[cooling climate]

The evolution of this starts at or slightly before t72 and not t144 etc so that should give

some of the more dubious posters a lot more confidence.

Of course with all the ups and downs its quite understandable.

This run is not just bitterly cold but it is a snowfest aswell, incredible stuff.

[weather eater]

Just like to add that whilst the models (and a good number of folk on here) have flip-flopped this way and that over the past number of days, the METO have been pretty damn consistent with regards to a colder mid-term outlook, so never mind back-slapping on here, maybe they deserve some credit also ?

Personally I don't accept the 'it's a difficult setup so the models are bound to struggle' argument. Either models are capable of handling all types of set-up with a reasonable amount of consistency and accuracy, or they're barely worth the computing power they consume............ And basing discussions on them at anything beyond about T48 is fairly pointless, because they aren't even managing to show consistent 'trends'.

Have just said that to my wife, mind you still a way to go before the backslapping can start, very tasty looking ECM developing, 168hrs looking very interesting.

[SnowBallz]

Gorden Bennett...

[Weathizard]

Not sure if this is the correct place to post this but, do the models THUS FAR point to any snow for the SE? (Brighton to be exact)

[Jason H]

The T192 is insane!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Have just said that to my wife, mind you still a way to go before the backslapping can start, very tasty looking ECM developing, 168hrs looking very interesting.

I don't think anyone is backslapping really. Just some understandable relief at the model outcomes this evening.

Everyone knows tomorrow is another day and the consistancy has to be maintained - so on that basis I think people can be forgiven for having 'a happy hour' after the chopping and changing from one thing to another that has, as we know, driven some nuts!

[Matty M]

One negative thing about the ECM is it doesnt develop the high pressure that much.

Would like to see it more itense.

But ehhhhh its alright i suppose!!!!!

[Totoro]

Satisfactory output tonight, but extreme caution still needed (probably talking to myself though!). We need to see a consistent trend continued tomorrow and there is still plenty of opportunities for the set-up to go wrong. Far, far too early for backslapping - its not even started to happen yet.

Wise words. Couldn't agree more.

[chionomaniac]

One of the reasons that the models have fluctuated so much in recent days is because the signals have only been slight in either direction. There have been indications for northern blocking but not a mega block. There are indications for Atlantic and Scandi troughs with a weak ridge in between but nothing exceptional. Because these differentials between the troughing and ridgings are only slight any downwellings from the strat may have significant effects here with the positions of these ridges and troughs. The models have fluctuated wildly as a result. We have seen greater blocks this winter than the ECM is showing but these have been easier to model for this reason. Still no guarantees but a welcome step in the right direction.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

id say GFS looks better for snow, ecm seems to suggest snow just for S/SE mid next week, but of course way too early yet, so I prefer GFS for wed onwards

[snowray]

Just like to add that whilst the models (and a good number of folk on here) have flip-flopped this way and that over the past number of days, the METO have been pretty damn consistent with regards to a colder mid-term outlook, so never mind back-slapping on here, maybe they deserve some credit also ?

Personally I don't accept the 'it's a difficult setup so the models are bound to struggle' argument. Either models are capable of handling all types of set-up with a reasonable amount of consistency and accuracy, or they're barely worth the computing power they consume............ And basing discussions on them at anything beyond about T48 is fairly pointless, because they aren't even managing to show consistent 'trends'.

Couldn't agree with you more Pennine. How everything can just flip again like a light switch is unbelievable, and of course just because all the models sudenly agree on the Beasterly, and anyway how can anyone be sure that this is it when your nevres are worn down to a pile of old jibberish ofter the last weeks or so's tooing and throwing.

Ah well, just make the most of this weather porn I guess, while it lasts! :blush:

Edited February 3, 2010 by snowray

[SnowBallz]

[Jason T]

Well i for once i got something right, I said last night it would change today. WOW but these are awesome runs and agreement. MAJOR.

There maybe trouble ahead.

[TEITS]

Not sure if this is the correct place to post this but, do the models THUS FAR point to any snow for the SE? (Brighton to be exact)

Little bit early to talk about snow. However based on the 12Zs then the answer is yes.

Simply put if tomorrows runs continue with the trend then a flow from the E looks increasingly likely. However when it comes to details i.e temps, snowfall then we have to wait until at least Fri/Sat.

[Polar Front]

NAO forcast coming into line with predicted cold spell also.......

My link

[Bobby]

Confidence is higher now because the key switch (the undercut) is at just +72 or earlier, very rarely are the models wrong at this range. Earler, when there was all the flipping about, that key moment was much further out.

Still could go wrong though, it's not in the bag yet... but confidence is quite high now I think.

[West Sussex Kate]

OMG! :blush: T168 ECM

Brilliant !!!

[Geordiesnow]

Nice too see the ECM coming on board and seeing this is the best model out of them all, it certainly is a positive.

Its nice too see every 12Z run appears to agree on some sort of easterly flow but it could still go all wrong if the link up in the short term does not come off however if they do, then a cold snap/spell should not be too far away.

Too early to crack open the champagne and start celebrating either but at least it should give this thread a more positive feel this evening, at least until around 10 ish!