Out Of Season System

[Cookie]

this thing has been hanging around of the east coast of the Atlantic for a few days.

Dr Jeff Masters discussion of this low

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:04 PM GMT on Febuary 01, 2010

An interesting 1002 mb low pressure system with some characteristics of a tropical storm has developed off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Canary Islands. An ASCAT pass from last night revealed top winds of 40 mph near the center, so the low is probably near tropical storm strength. This low is moving east-northeast towards the Canaries, and will likely bring sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph, gusting to 50 mph, to the islands tonight. The storm formed over the weekend from an isolated cold-cored low that was wandering over the Atlantic, and phase space analyses from Florida State University revealed that the low developed a partial warm core over the weekend. A respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has built near the storm's center, characteristic of a tropical storm. The low is over cool 21 - 22°C water, far colder than the typical 26°C needed for a tropical storm to form. Wind shear is marginal for tropical storm formation, about 20 knots. The comma-shaped structure of the storm's spiral bands is characteristic of an extratropical cyclone, and it is pretty unlikely that NHC will view this hybrid storm as being sufficiently tropical to warrant naming it a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. The low is headed towards colder waters of 20°C that lie near the Canary Islands, and the system should become less tropical today.

[kold weather]

I've noticed this as well for the last few days, I've gotta admit that looks very much like a tropical system to me, wouldn't at all surprise me to see this being a 35kts TS in truth, though sadly seems to have been totally ignored, probably on the assumption it wouldn't strengthen like it has on its approach towards land.

IMO some serious research needs to be done on systems in this part of the basin, seems like nearly every year now there are borderline systems that look sub/tropical in nature in the NE portion of the Atlantic basin, I suspect the fact that the tropical stratopshere is so cold and there is much warmer then normal waters extending towards SW Europe its quite possible thats been enough to nulify the much colder waters that would normally inhibit such developments.

[Cookie]

I agree mate