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Welsh Cold Weather Discussion Thread

J10

By J10
in Spring Weather Discussion

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matty lfc Rookie

matty lfc

Posted
  • Location: wales,heads of the valley 1100ft asl
  • Location: wales,heads of the valley 1100ft asl
Posted

A few light flurries up here today and the forecast for the rest of the week,it has to be said,is pretty dull for Wales.Next week's northerly is way,way too far off to be interested in,imo.

What did surprise me today,however,were the temps.Barely got above 1deg and nowhere near the 5-6 deg forecast.

This isn't really a cold spell compared to last month lol tbh.

According to the model output guys,this one hasn't even started yet!!!

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andymusic Accomplished

andymusic

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Posted (edited)

Light snow flurries here and really windy all of a sudden.

Nice one Ali - weekend and beyond for the really good stuff I think

Even Derek on Radio Wales mentioned the prospects for next week and he's privy to the meto's regular briefings!

Edited by andymusic
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benb Explorer

benb

Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
Posted

A weak trough moving SW across Wales Wednesday on this chart ( just posted by Eugene on the Model output thread):

Eugenes link

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andymusic Accomplished

andymusic

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Posted

A weak trough moving SW across Wales Wednesday on this chart ( just posted by Eugene on the Model output thread):

Eugenes link

Cheers for that- could be something, though most likely nothing, with the high pressure so near.

IMO, nothing significant in the reliable timeframe, atm...

On the positive side- at least it is cold and that's a start. Shame all that deep cold looks like heading off across France...

Patience is the watch word.

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joo Rookie

joo

Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly (140m ASL)
  • Location: Caerphilly (140m ASL)
Posted

Ever such light flurries here. But they are flurries of snow and Andymusic promised us snow for today, so I'm a believer.

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted

A weak trough moving SW across Wales Wednesday on this chart ( just posted by Eugene on the Model output thread):

Eugenes link

Cheers for that- could be something, though most likely nothing, with the high pressure so near.

IMO, nothing significant in the reliable timeframe, atm...

On the positive side- at least it is cold and that's a start. Shame all that deep cold looks like heading off across France...

Patience is the watch word.

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andymusic Accomplished

andymusic

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Posted

Cheers for that- could be something, though most likely nothing, with the high pressure so near.

IMO, nothing significant in the reliable timeframe, atm...

On the positive side- at least it is cold and that's a start. Shame all that deep cold looks like heading off across France...

Patience is the watch word.

Meto latest fax chart still has a warm then cold front coming down from the north thursday.

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
  • Author
Posted

A quite significant change on the latest ECM with a western -NAO pattern starting up, sending the block too far west, and possibly keeping the cold northerly air away from us. However, still cold with low pressure and very interesting to see the 850HPA temps on the latest ECM.

Suffice to say a massive synoptic difference between the ECM at T+144 to T+192 and the GFS.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest_model_forecasts/ecmwf/archiv/NSea/thgt850/2010020812/seethumb/ch/b1b094b7d4.html (850HPA temps from the ECM.

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alijoe Apprentice

alijoe

Posted
  • Location: Magor - South Wales
  • Location: Magor - South Wales
Posted

Nice one Ali - weekend and beyond for the really good stuff I think

Even Derek on Radio Wales mentioned the prospects for next week and he's privy to the meto's regular briefings!

Well fingers crossed. I just suppose what will be will be. It all changes all the time so I am not going to be doom and gloom and like you say will have patience and hope, oh and a good few drinks to keep me going along the way drinks.gif lol (got to have something to calm the nerves).

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marclt Apprentice

marclt

Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
Posted

A quite significant change on the latest ECM with a western -NAO pattern starting up, sending the block too far west, and possibly keeping the cold northerly air away from us. However, still cold with low pressure and very interesting to see the 850HPA temps on the latest ECM.

Suffice to say a massive synoptic difference between the ECM at T+144 to T+192 and the GFS.

http://www.meteogrou...b1b094b7d4.html (850HPA temps from the ECM.

Could it be over before it's begun.. (Probably!)

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benb Explorer

benb

Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
Posted (edited)

Is this the sort of timeframe you're on about, JackOne?

post-7763-12656569600017_thumb.png

post-7763-12656569727717_thumb.png

Not saying this wouldn't bring snow, but the whole evolution to get to here looks a little dodgy to me! Maybe it's just because it's an unfamilar scenario...

Anyway, it's well over 120hrs and therefore is subject, as the last few weeks have proved, to radical change, IMO!

Edited by benb
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ourson Apprentice

ourson

Posted
  • Location: Caerdydd/Cardiff 10m asl :(
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and warm summers
  • Location: Caerdydd/Cardiff 10m asl :(
Posted

have some faith!!!!!!!!!!!

I have 100% faith and believe (and hope) that we get some tidy winter weather in the next ten days or so.

Have to remember Andy, a pessimist is merely an optimist in posession of of all the facts!! nonono.gif

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andymusic Accomplished

andymusic

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Posted

I have 100% faith and believe (and hope) that we get some tidy winter weather in the next ten days or so.

Have to remember Andy, a pessimist is merely an optimist in posession of of all the facts!! nonono.gif

I look at the models - listen to all the "rumours" - general weather talk from both experienced and non - experienced sources and from my own experiences of the weather and understanding before going ahead with my take on the weather - I still believe the snow will come - I do however think this cold spell will not be as cold as the last one was (we won't be getting -22s in Scotland then for instance) - but that doesn't stop the chances for snow - so keep the faith!

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marclt Apprentice

marclt

Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
Posted

have some faith!!!!!!!!!!!

I believe... I believe...

A northerly or NW'ly set up is always good for my little corner of Wales, lots of showers (hopefully) from the Irish sea....

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Is this the sort of timeframe you're on about, JackOne?

post-7763-12656569600017_thumb.png

post-7763-12656569727717_thumb.png

Not saying this wouldn't bring snow, but the whole evolution to get to here looks a little dodgy to me! Maybe it's just because it's an unfamilar scenario...

Anyway, it's well over 120hrs and therefore is subject, as the last few weeks have proved, to radical change, IMO!

Indeed there is no certainty about this setup, and the disagreement between this and the GFS cannot be ignored, however perhaps the ECM is picking up a new trend. It is FI, and the ECM is going for extreme retrogression of the high, so perhaps a blend between the ECM and the GFS is more likely.

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marclt Apprentice

marclt

Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
Posted

Indeed there is no certainty about this setup, and the disagreement between this and the GFS cannot be ignored, however perhaps the ECM is picking up a new trend. It is FI, and the ECM is going for extreme retrogression of the high, so perhaps a blend between the ECM and the GFS is more likely.

What scenario might that herald?

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Jamie. Newbie

Jamie.

Posted
  • Location: Chepstow, South Wales - 275ft ASL
  • Location: Chepstow, South Wales - 275ft ASL
Posted

Block goes too far west?

That's something I didn't think I would hear laugh.gif... usually it's not west enough.

The atlantic must be very low on fuel if that HP is setting off Canada way.

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

Today it was cloudy here and we had some drizzle, and also some snow falling too.

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Elnonio Newbie

Elnonio

Posted
  • Location: Canton, Cardiff
  • Location: Canton, Cardiff
Posted

Not even a single flake. This week seems to be all cold and sometimes sunny and I can't really see much on the horizon unfortunately - keeping the faith though - however misguided that might be! E x

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Cymro Community Regular

Cymro

Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
Posted

Haven't seen any snow here either only drizzle that looked icy.

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