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Welsh Cold Weather Discussion Thread


J10

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Any chance of some charts or something, boys, to back up your assertations and to salvage just the tiniest bit of dignity for this, the WELSH COLD WEATHER DISCUSSION THREAD?

I'm just studying the GFS 18z pub run and will return with a chart for you shortly - but theoretically I am still convinced that the more potent northerly which begins the weekend into next week will bring with it much more chances of snow for us + there's always the breakdown event!

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Posted
  • Location: Canton, Cardiff
  • Location: Canton, Cardiff

Don't get me wrong, I am totally addicted to this forum and it is much more forgiving and less 'sniffy' than the other 'very sensible and model driven' forums on here. However, since I am really rubbish at reading charts and the like, I would really like to see some more concrete evidence and explanation rather than ' it will snow on tuesday' and 'it is drizzling in Swansea'. whistling.gif E x

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Posted
  • Location: Penpedairheol - Rhymney Valley 200m asl
  • Location: Penpedairheol - Rhymney Valley 200m asl

Well its been snowing on and off all day today here in the Rhymney Valley although we haven't had to dig any of the neighbors out tis true - and it is undoubtedly cold - about 2 degrees at the moment. So Andy Music day has certainly arrived- just hope it stays for the next two weeks to give us in the West a fighting chance for one last blast of winter 2010.

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Posted
  • Location: tycoch - swansea
  • Location: tycoch - swansea

Any chance of some charts or something, boys, to back up your assertations and to salvage just the tiniest bit of dignity for this, the WELSH COLD WEATHER DISCUSSION THREAD?

Charts or no charts , there will be one snow event out of this cold period for us.

Keep the faith.

Look at the bickering and needle on the model discussion thread, thats what models and charts can do to you.

Is there any dignity on the model output discussion thread??

Light hearted , a tad silly maybe now and again, but not evil and cut throat.

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Posted
  • Location: Canton, Cardiff
  • Location: Canton, Cardiff

You will notice, that some posts have been deleted, a request was made yesterday to keep this thread sensible, and model related.

Any further silliness will be deleted.

There are threads in the banter areas, and I have started a banter thread here, where more of a laugh is welcome.

http://forum.netweat...-banter-thread/

OK, so my latest post won't make any sense. sorry !! Agree totally Jackone - at last! E x

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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

Looks like some very light precipitation (snow/ snow grains?) heading into sw Wales now.

Currently 1.4c.

Be nice to see a couple of flakes. Nothing here today, so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Charts or no charts , there will be one snow event out of this cold period for us.

Keep the faith.

Look at the bickering and needle on the model discussion thread, thats what models and charts can do to you.

Is there any dignity on the model output discussion thread??

Light hearted , a tad silly maybe now and again, but not evil and cut throat.

Yes Pascals - I do find the model thread very dangerous territory at times - in fact lately it's been so bad I've been loathe to go in there - just full of people with their own opinions who are fighting against others with their own opinions with very hard attitudes! - it's a shame these model posters can't live and let live and respect others opinions about the weather and the way they communicate with each other - anyway, back to the weather - still analyzing tonight's GFS 18Z - will be back shortly with a summary!

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Yes Pascals - I do find the model thread very dangerous territory at times - in fact lately it's been so bad I've been loathe to go in there - just full of people with their own opinions who are fighting against others with their own opinions with very hard attitudes! - it's a shame these model posters can't live and let live and respect others opinions about the weather and the way they communicate with each other - anyway, back to the weather - still analyzing tonight's GFS 18Z - will be back shortly with a summary!

It has been a good winter as well and that's what makes it so surprising. One thing I am looking at the GFS in particular is to see if the western -NAO pattern suggested by the ECM is supported by the latest run.

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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.

Looks like some very light precipitation (snow/ snow grains?) heading into sw Wales now.

Currently 1.4c.

Be nice to see a couple of flakes. Nothing here today, so far.

There's already been light snowfall in Whitland so I've heard, maybe it's skipped over you?

Anyway, current locations here: Overcast, -1.0c, Winds NE. Pressure 1012, trend: falling.

Edited by marclt
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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

There's already been light snowfall in Whitland so I've heard, maybe it's skipped over you?

Must have- clear sky and lots of stars here...

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Looks dry until next week which is our target snow fall time then things look like getting interesting:-

Rtavn2641.png

FI but very interesting

Edited by andymusic
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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.

Must have- clear sky and lots of stars here...

-1c further west too...

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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

Obviously totally not likely to happen this way, but is that technically a polar low in the GFS 18z? Watch the instability race down the east side of Gland and Iceland, then develop over Ireland at 204-228hrs.

airpressure.png

As I say, unlikely but perhaps does highlight the potential if the set-up develops this way...

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Looks dry until next week which is our target snow fall time then things look like getting interesting:-

Rtavn2641.png

I don't like the High getting so far west, it makes things more marginal, When a straight northerly/NW early could be better for us.

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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly (140m ASL)
  • Location: Caerphilly (140m ASL)

I thought the regional threads were for "nowcasting" as well as model discussions. I am really interested in every one's take on what's happening and may or may not happen, but I have no idea on how to read the various models and ensembles and doobry whatsits. So all I can contribute is my personal nowcasting. Things get exciting when I get the nowcast from local areas about first flakes falling, it makes me go check out my lamp post.

I do go in the model discussion thread but it's all FI and if there's one thing I've learnt in my short time here is that the future is not written yet and there are zillions of potential futures.

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Interesting comments from GP

In summary, the models are being progressive in moving the High west to Greenland and especially west from Greenland, and that heights are likely to remain high to our NW longer than the models are currently suggesting, this is good news for a potential northerly outbreak next week.

I thought the regional threads were for "nowcasting" as well as model discussions. I am really interested in every one's take on what's happening and may or may not happen, but I have no idea on how to read the various models and ensembles and doobry whatsits. So all I can contribute is my personal nowcasting. Things get exciting when I get the nowcast from local areas about first flakes falling, it makes me go check out my lamp post.

I do go in the model discussion thread but it's all FI and if there's one thing I've learnt in my short time here is that the future is not written yet and there are zillions of potential futures.

Never be afraid to give now casting comments where you are based.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

I do go in the model discussion thread but it's all FI and if there's one thing I've learnt in my short time here is that the future is not written yet and there are zillions of potential futures.

You have learnt well so soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Interesting comments from GP http://forum.netweat...ost__p__1769096

In summary, the models are being progressive in moving the High west to Greenland and especially west from Greenland, and that heights are likely to remain high to our NW longer than the models are currently suggesting, this is good news for a potential northerly outbreak next week.

Never be afraid to give now casting comments where you are based.

Ok, 2.8C with dewpoint -0.4C and some juicy showers in the North Sea ...... doubt they'll reach you thoughrofl.gif

Anyway, the 1978 parallel is also good news, for Scotland also as at the same time as those in Devon were being airlifted we also had at least a foot of snow.

Patience is key for your area, like it is for the vast majority of Scotland - enjoy the sunny weather and don't get too frustrated when you miss out on snow, which you probably will this week.

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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

Had a low of -0.5C overnight, currently 1.4C. Also had a few snow grains yesterday but not much. So it looks like a dry week then with some possible snow over the weekend and into next week? :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

I thought the regional threads were for "nowcasting" as well as model discussions. I am really interested in every one's take on what's happening and may or may not happen, but I have no idea on how to read the various models and ensembles and doobry whatsits. So all I can contribute is my personal nowcasting. Things get exciting when I get the nowcast from local areas about first flakes falling, it makes me go check out my lamp post.

I do go in the model discussion thread but it's all FI and if there's one thing I've learnt in my short time here is that the future is not written yet and there are zillions of potential futures.

There certainly are zillions of future possibilities but as you become slightly more experienced at "reading" the weather you can start to get a possible feel of what it might do and hazard a guess with available data at what it might do. I think the regional threads should have a little less formal feel to them than the model thread to encourage new posters to air their own views - whatever they may be. You keep on checking that lampost and keep us up to date with the latest from your neck of the woods - just like we'll do the same here - in our own friendly waybiggrin.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Had a low of -0.5C overnight, currently 1.4C. Also had a few snow grains yesterday but not much. So it looks like a dry week then with some possible snow over the weekend and into next week? smile.gif

That's about the size of it - we should traverse to a northerly next week which will give Wales a better chance at some snow

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Posted
  • Location: Nantymoel (asl 268m)or 879ft
  • Location: Nantymoel (asl 268m)or 879ft

hi all been reading models chat this morn for ages and i have been reading for quite a while(since i joined) and it always seems that the real cold snowy weather is always 7 to 10 days away. if that is the case why bother to try and forcast what may happen and if i am correct the snow we has last month was predicited within 3 days. i know it has gone colder but last week we were going to be in the freezer by now. and the week before we was going to have +12 or higher. i also understand that the models are having a hard time right now but still dont understand how we seem to find it so hard to get cold snowy weather preditctions right, other countries seem to get things far more accurate.

i may be wrong in what i write but has it always been like this in the uk to get the weather predictions right, we seem to be fine when saying its going to rain. and when we do get sun for that 5 days of the year lol.

i also now understand not to trust any of the models because they change their mind more than my wife lol. as last week lots were saying 100% now that easterly was on as all models were saying so and that by now it would be freezing but now it seems that it has changed again.

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