Spring / Summer 2010

[LomondSnowstorm]

Move to London

Of course I would love a long, hot, dry, sunny Summer.. nothing beats sitting outside in the sun, and then lying on the cool grass at about 10pm with the temperature still in the high teens.. gorgeous

I'm not too bothered about the warm nights.. being close to the city, you get used to the odd night dropping no lower than around 18C, normally it stays at about 14C though which is not too warm at all. Last year there were only a handful of uncomfortable nights during the 'heatwave' where it dropped only to about 20C on a few nights I think.. but it's a small price to pay for beautiful hot sunshine during the day.

Last year overall was definately an improvement on the last 2 summers - still pretty bad, but temperature wise, it was mainly around 21C-25c for the majority of the time.

I think that the earliest that it can get hot at is in early May - I think it was on the 3rd or 4th of May 2008 where we nearly reached 30C here.. and then in April 2007 we reached 25C or so..

May 2008 I can remember well - the BBC forecast that evening was amazing - 27C in London at 8pm, 21C in Manchester and yet it was about 6C here!

[Derp Patrol]

May 2008 I can remember well - the BBC forecast that evening was amazing - 27C in London at 8pm, 21C in Manchester and yet it was about 6C here!

Wow - that is an amazing difference.. that warm spell was very nice, and unsurprisingly early, as normally we usually get our first taste of summer in mid-late May, not in mid Spring

[LomondSnowstorm]

Wow - that is an amazing difference.. that warm spell was very nice, and unsurprisingly early, as normally we usually get our first taste of summer in mid-late May, not in mid Spring

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080511.gif

I think the reason was that winds across eastern Scotland were from the east, which in summer, autumn or late spring leads to haar, so temperatures were suppressed hugely.

[Weather-history]

May 2008 I can remember well - the BBC forecast that evening was amazing - 27C in London at 8pm, 21C in Manchester and yet it was about 6C here!

Something similiar happen during late May 2005

It got to 32C in London but Glasgow was only 10C or 11C

[Methuselah]

I can't remember the year, but I got on a plane at Luton (32C) and was greeted in Sneckie by a stonking 12!

[summer blizzard]

Personally i am not thrilled with this summers prospects, the strongest anologues at the moment in reagrds to the MEI, AO and QBO are 2003, 1992, 1987, 1977 and 1964, what is worrying me is the fact that 80% of those anologues call for a below average July and August, which means the later half of summer is looking pretty dire at the moment.

[Solar Cycles]

Personally I think we will have a cold start to spring, mid June to around late July, should see our best weather of the summer. Unfortunately all downhill thereafter, still it will be a huge improvement on the last two summers!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Personally i am not thrilled with this summers prospects, the strongest anologues at the moment in reagrds to the MEI, AO and QBO are 2003, 1992, 1987, 1977 and 1964, what is worrying me is the fact that 80% of those anologues call for a below average July and August, which means the later half of summer is looking pretty dire at the moment.

Great! About time we had a cold,wet summer!

[SP1986]

I think were going to get a cool, very wet summer at this stage, in fact one of the coolest on record I would expect.

The reason I say this is because of the amount of easterlies and continental air we've had in winter and I think this pattern will expire going towards summer. I think the Atlantic will barge in with frequent westerly spells of unsettled weather.

Nothing more than that to be honest.

[djajb]

It could end up being similar to 2009 where places like Essex & Kent had the BBQ summer (warmer & drier) whilst the rest of the country was wet and cool. Southwesterlies don't always impact the southeast like the rest of the country, Obviously would prefer everyone to be having a good summer.

http://www.meto.gov.uk/climate/uk/2009/august/averages.html

check out August 2009

East Anglia 23.5c, 5.5 days of rain & 69% of rainfall

-

NW England 18.6c, 16.5 days of rain & 124% of rainfall

Contrast couldn't be anymore different!

Edited February 9, 2010 by djajb

[AderynCoch]

August 2009 was a horrible, disappointing month here - constantly grey and rainy with lacklustre temperatures, despite real summer conditions showing up quite regularly to the southeast.

The Bank Holiday weekend was absolutely dreadful - cold and wet.

[Thundery wintry showers]

There were quite a few days during August 2009 when in Norwich it was sunny and 27C, in Tyneside it was cloudy and 24C, and many western parts were having drizzle. There was a pronounced NW-SE split especially in the second half. The first half was quite dull here in Norwich as well, however, and I remember being shot down in flames for saying I preferred the sunshine and convection that Norwich had in July. It was mainly after midmonth when sunshine levels perked up- indeed I recall the third week was particularly sunny here.

To be honest I don't have much of an idea what this summer will be like- "law of averages" suggests a drier than average summer, but while dry weather does tend to be correlated with warmth and sunshine in high summer it isn't a hard and fast rule, so temperatures and sunshine amounts would still be up in the air.

[Weather-history]

August 2009 was a horrible, disappointing month here - constantly grey and rainy with lacklustre temperatures, despite real summer conditions showing up quite regularly to the southeast.

The Bank Holiday weekend was absolutely dreadful - cold and wet.

Personally, I don't think it was that bad. Infact I thought you had got the year wrong and was referring to August 2008 which was terrible, worse than August 2009.

Edited February 9, 2010 by Mr_Data

[SP1986]

Here in Wiral we certainly didn't get the 124% of rain that the rest of NW England got and we were slightly warmer as well but it wasn't a great summer by any means. The annual rainfall reflected the dry nature of the year anyway, despite more rain towards October.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Personally, I don't think it was that bad. Infact I thought you had got the year wrong and was referring to August 2008 which was terrible, worse than August 2009.

Definitely agree there. Here are the stats again for Aug 2009:

http://www.meto.gov.uk/climate/uk/2009/august/averages.html

and August 2008:

http://www.meto.gov.uk/climate/uk/2008/august/averages.html

Sunshine generally 30-50% lower than in August 2009, rainfall generally 50-150% higher and mean maximum temperatures generally 1-1.5C lower, the only exceptions being W Scotland and N Ireland.

[Gavin P]

Well it doesn't look like we're going to flip to La Nina through spring/early summer, which is the good news. The bad news is that the summers that have El Nino's just gradually fading away through them seem to split between good and bad - And mainly on the bad side it has to be said.

My guess is it'll be a better summer, because I find it hard to believe we could have four poor summers on the bounce - Though we have had four poor summers on the trot before, 85-88, 77-80, 71-74 and just look at the 60's where virtually the whole decade was a summer write off!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The summers of 1971-74 were nowhere near being on a par with 1985-88 - July 1971 was quite a warm dry sunny month, July & August 1972 were generally drier than average, and 1973 was quite close to average in many places. I would agree with 1977-1980 away from north-western England and much of Scotland where Summer 1977 was generally sunny and dry.

The notion of last year being a poor summer is open to debate- after all a large swathe of the country was sunnier, warmer and only a little wetter than average, indeed parts of East Anglia and the SE had below average rainfall. 2007 and 2008 were dull and very wet for the vast majority though. Like in spring, expectations for summer can often be a little high on this forum with an average summer month being perceived as poor, and a moderately warm dry sunny month being perceived as average.

[kold weather]

Yeah I'd say 2009 probably was an ok summer, of course the problem is always to occur when people compare some of the great summers between say 1995-2006, in which case it indeed was very standard...however compared to the summers of both 2007 and 2008 it was a pretty decent one I agree, certainly not as bad as those other two summers, esp the further SE you go.

I personally suspect this will probably be a warmer then average summer though obviously precip totals are something that are tough to call due to possible convective plumes....and the fact its only Feb!

[AderynCoch]

Personally, I don't think it was that bad. Infact I thought you had got the year wrong and was referring to August 2008 which was terrible, worse than August 2009.

I could be wrong, but August 2008 seemed more settled to me. Still a disappointing month of course (the dullest August since 1912 couldn't possibly be anything else!).

Also, the divide between the NW and SE during last August was enough to turn a hairy man bald. Bad weather always feels worse when good weather is close by (this is compounded when you're pummelled with images of people in other parts of the country enjoying a heatwave or having fun in the snow). Sounds rather petty, but it does feel like there's a party going on and you're not invited.

[Methuselah]

The summer of 2009 wasn't too bad up here...

[Arnie22]

as a summer I can always gauge by the amount of cricket i get to play - 2009 we never had a game called off prior to a match taking place - speaking to the groundsman this was an event he can never remember taking place in the last 20 odd years. We abandonded two matches due to convective storms and rains pushing up from the South West.

Also it cant have been too ropey with the temps as my long sleeve jumper never came out of the kit bag. Wouldnt be too disappointed if this year was similar - perhaps a tad more consistent.

2008 well that was a mare with 55% of games not taking place at all.

Edited February 9, 2010 by Arnie22

[Thundery wintry showers]

I could be wrong, but August 2008 seemed more settled to me. Still a disappointing month of course (the dullest August since 1912 couldn't possibly be anything else!).

Also, the divide between the NW and SE during last August was enough to turn a hairy man bald. Bad weather always feels worse when good weather is close by (this is compounded when you're pummelled with images of people in other parts of the country enjoying a heatwave or having fun in the snow). Sounds rather petty, but it does feel like there's a party going on and you're not invited.

August 2008 was very unsettled until the last week- low pressure and fronts moving across at regular intervals resulting in well above average rainfall everywhere. The warm settled spell occurred in the last week, which ironically was the dullest of the month, and had some drizzle especially in western areas. It could be a case of selectively remembering the last week.

Only in western Scotland and Northern Ireland was August 2009 remotely on a par with August 2008, either rainfall or sunshine wise.

For most western areas it was July 2009 that was the "stinker"- dull and wet with low maxima. However, it was a controversial month in much of eastern Britain and also northern Scotland, where it was also wet but much of the rain came from short-lived convective storms with warm sunshine in between- plenty on offer for convective storm lovers and decent enough for sun lovers, not so good for those looking for prolonged settled spells.

[Derp Patrol]

Being in the SE, last year was not as bad as the previous 2 summers, but still not great. July was very disappointing, and overall the lack of sunshine was a letdown. This year more than anything I would like a lot of sunshine, because when you have anticyclonic conditions with next to no cloud, we are almost guaranteed at least 25C. My feeling is that this year the second half of March will be very mild following an average start, and that the summer will be dominated by anticyclonic conditions.

[londonsnow]

it's early february. what is the point of any conjecture about spring let alone summer. it's the same every year, and it's a waste of time, even from the meto. sorry, bad day

[MP-R]

As Richard Angwin summed it up last September:

June was fantastic, July was absolutely awful, and August was good. June was an excellent month after a hot start, then a cool refreshing few days, plenty of convective days and warm sunshine especially in the final third. Although in July we had thunderstorms and torrential downpours which I love in summer, we also had Tm muck which I despise between. Then August produced the most anticyclonic weather of the summer though split between sunshine and cloud. The only heavy rain in August came with strong winds on the 28th.