Spring / Summer 2010

[Weather-history]

A lot of posts about July 2006 and that summer but for me, summer 1995 was the standout. That was the best summer I have experienced and August 1995 was a better month than July 2006 overall for me.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A good point indeed. In Cleadon, the summers of 2003 and 2006 came out warmer than that of 1995 but only because the overnight minima were much higher, while for sunshine and dryness they fell well behind. In 2006, that phenomenal July was offset by a cloudy damp August and frequent cloudy weather in the second half of June, while in 2003, I recall a fair amount of cloudy tropical maritime type weather early and late in July, as well as a dull anticyclone in late August.

The question of what was better out of August 1995 and July 2006 is a matter of taste- I personally prefer there to be some thundery interrputions July '06 style (although August '95 did have some dramatic convective storms on the 27th in Tyneside) but I'd certainly have no hesitation in regarding 1995 as more of a standout summer than either 2003 or 2006, taking the three months of the summer quarter as a whole. The same would apply even more strongly for much of N & W Britain which experienced much less of the cool cloudy stuff that affected eastern England in early to mid June, resulting in the sunniest summer on record for Scotland & N Ireland by some way.

[MP-R]

Regarding Tutiempo.net, I find the "days of" variables a bit suspect at times (e.g. there's no way Exeter had three days of sleet/snow falling in July 1983!), but the temperature values are usually representative, usually being very close to or identical to the "official" records provided by the sites.

I used to get confused by that too but it can also mean hail, the 'sn' column that is which is why it would say that in July.

[lukemc]

Hi,

Does anyone know what the earliest date that a) 25 degrees C and 30 degrees C could be possible in the UK under the right conditions? Does anyone know the earliest dates that these temperatures where recorded in the UK? I am just thinking could their ever be the case where 30 degrees C could be recorded in April in the UK and could 25 degrees C be possible by the first week of April? Was the warm spell in April 2007 caused by high pressure with a southerly continental feed? I am thinking we might see our first 25 degrees C early this year, possibly by early May what do you think (similar to May 1990)?

Luke

[Geordiesnow]

Yesterday, the weather gods were certainly on our side up here, especially when you looked at the cloud images. When i woke up and saw the dreaded cloud to the east, i thought this sunshine won't last when in fact it did, unbroken spring sunshine with the cloud from the North Sea not moving inland what so ever. I think yesterday was the first day i could say that Spring has arrived.

I would still love for one more snow event, not bothard about it lying but just to see snow falling before we focus on warmer weather.

Summer is not my favorite month, it can tend to be very boring around here, anytime we get a hot spell, we get shrouded in haar, whenever a convective set up arrives, we tend to get less showers than other parts of the country. Okay, it does get pretty warm here but it is frustrating when you see part of the country having temps of 21-25C and we are stuck in the mid teens under cloudy skies can be tedious.

[Bottesford]

Who thinks the clock move should be around now? It seems pointless waiting until the 28th as daylight at 6-7pm is more useful than daylight 6-7am.

I'd say move it this weekend (two weeks earlier) giving sunrise 0722 sunset 1907 (here in Nottingham anyway). Think the US moved it a few years back to save on energy (more lights on in early evening than early morning) - I think we should do the same!

[Derp Patrol]

Hi,

Does anyone know what the earliest date that a) 25 degrees C and 30 degrees C could be possible in the UK under the right conditions? Does anyone know the earliest dates that these temperatures where recorded in the UK? I am just thinking could their ever be the case where 30 degrees C could be recorded in April in the UK and could 25 degrees C be possible by the first week of April? Was the warm spell in April 2007 caused by high pressure with a southerly continental feed? I am thinking we might see our first 25 degrees C early this year, possibly by early May what do you think (similar to May 1990)?

Luke

Hi, I can't answer all of your questions, but realistically, the earliest that 25C can be recorded in the UK is in April. I think that 23C or 24C may have been recorded in March, but 25C would be a long long shot for March. April has recorded temps in the high 20s, I think 2007 did? and 20C is fairly common in April. 30C is possible by May, and I think that max recorded temperature is close to 33C for May. The earliest date would pobably be early May.

Regarding daylight hours - I definately agree!

[Thundery wintry showers]

25C has been recorded in the back end of March a few times. There was one such instance in 1968 which was followed immediately by a potent northerly outbreak with widespread snowfalls. I think even with a slightly warmer world, for now late March is the limit for 25C.

For 30C, it might be just about achievable in late April given perfect synoptic conditions, and it is certainly possible by early May.

[summer blizzard]

Hi,

Does anyone know what the earliest date that a) 25 degrees C and B) 30 degrees C could be possible in the UK under the right conditions? Does anyone know the earliest dates that these temperatures where recorded in the UK? I am just thinking could their ever be the case where 30 degrees C could be recorded in April in the UK and could 25 degrees C be possible by the first week of April? Was the warm spell in April 2007 caused by high pressure with a southerly continental feed? I am thinking we might see our first 25 degrees C early this year, possibly by early May what do you think (similar to May 1990)?

Luke

The March record is 25.1C set in 2005 i believe, the April record is 28.4C in 2003 and the May record is 32.8C, almost beaten in 2005 when it reached 32.4.

[Derp Patrol]

Ah, I never realised that the highest March temperature recorded was that high! I can't imagine it being 25C in 2 weeks time at the moment!!

I suppose that if we had a very warm southerly air source bringing uppers of say 15C, then it would be possible in late April, very hard though.

[Thundery wintry showers]

http://www.torro.org.uk/TORRO/britwxextremes/maxtemps.php

Although Kevin recently pointed out that March 2005 had the warmest second half of March on record for the CET, there were no all-time monthly temperature records set in Spring 2005. 27 May 2005 hit 31.4C in the SE rather than 32.4C while March 2005 managed a 22C but not 25C.

[Weather-history]

For 30C, it might be just about achievable in late April given perfect synoptic conditions,

You would think so but oddly, there have not been that many notable high temperatures at the back end of April. The 4th April of recorded a maximum of 26.5C back in 1946 and yet 4 of the last 5 days of April have never officially recorded a maximum of 26.0C+ and even the 30th which did is questionable due to readings at Camden Square being in doubt.

Its odd that the highest maximum ever record for March is 25.0C on the 29th and yet the second highest maximum ever recorded for the 29th and 30th April is also 25.0C

Edited March 10, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Terminal Moraine]

Its odd that the highest maximum ever record for March is 25.0C on the 29th and yet the second highest maximum ever recorded for the 29th and 30th April is also 25.0C

I well remember that spell. The 28th was equally as hot in this area with a max' of 25.0c where I was living at the time. It was a Sunday and I recall lazing about on the grass in the afternoon sunshine with a few mates, listening to the inimitable Alan Freeman doing his 'Pick of the Pops' chart show, and thinking that summer had arrived.

On reflection that two day spell in March was probably as warm by day, if not warmer, than any other two day spell in July 1965.

[Summer of 95]

Who thinks the clock move should be around now? It seems pointless waiting until the 28th as daylight at 6-7pm is more useful than daylight 6-7am.

I'd say move it this weekend (two weeks earlier) giving sunrise 0722 sunset 1907 (here in Nottingham anyway). Think the US moved it a few years back to save on energy (more lights on in early evening than early morning) - I think we should do the same!

Seeing as the day length late in late October is the same as in mid-Feb, I've never understood why they wait till the end of March (if they must put them back in the first place)- especially as the first pre-6am sunrise is delayed later than the first post-6pm sunset. If we moved it to the last weekend of Feb it would now mean the sun setting after 7pm- instead it gets light at 6.30am and dark at 6pm when most people don't start work till 8 or 9 but get home at 6-7 (Lucky **** I say having started at 5.30 this morning- it actually feels just as wrong when it's light then as when it gets dark at 4!)

The Americans recently moved it so they don't go back till November, they put them forward on the second Sun in March.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daylight_saving_time_around_the_world

Interestingly Argentina (whose southern parts are at the same latitude as Scotland) doesn't currently have clock changes, but is in effect on summer time all year round because it uses UTC-3, when it lies around 55-70 degrees west (where UTC-4 would get the sun due north around 12 noon). The far south must get sunrise near 11 am in midwinter. Japan is the opposite; no changes but mostly east of its timezone meridian, leading to 4am sunrises and 7pm sunsets in June.

Edited March 10, 2010 by Summer of 95

[Bottesford]

Interestingly Argentina (whose southern parts are at the same latitude as Scotland) doesn't currently have clock changes, but is in effect on summer time all year round because it uses UTC-3, when it lies around 55-70 degrees west (where UTC-4 would get the sun due north around 12 noon). The far south must get sunrise near 11 am in midwinter. Japan is the opposite; no changes but mostly east of its timezone meridian, leading to 4am sunrises and 7pm sunsets in June.

I had a friend who stayed in the far north of Japan for a while and observed first hand the absurd sunrise/sunset times in summer. Blazing bright at 4am but dark at 7pm - total waste of light! OK if you work 5am-1pm but that doesn't happen! She said they were on about changing it in near future - wonder if they have...

[lukemc]

Hi,

I did notice when we reached 15C in sunshine for the first time last year after a rather cold winter, in mid March, as I was quite acclimatised to the cold by then, that it really did feel like a summers day - it felt really warm even though 15C is what would be considered cool in the summer - did anyone else notice the same effect and do you think when we do get 15C for the first time it will feel really balmy as this winter has been even colder than the last?

Luke

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think there's a lot of truth in what you say and the effect of a 15C, especially if accompanied by sunshine and following on from no obvious gradual warm-up, will indeed be greater than it was last year, making it feel more like summer for many.

[lukemc]

Hi,

I did notice when we reached 15C in sunshine for the first time last year after a rather cold winter, in mid March, as I was quite acclimatised to the cold by then, that it really did feel like a summers day - it felt really warm even though 15C is what would be considered cool in the summer - did anyone else notice the same effect and do you think when we do get 15C for the first time it will feel really balmy as this winter has been even colder than the last?

Luke

[lukemc]

in my opion its only a matter of time before double figures do return.

but being outside most of the week here on the southcoast its been freezing cold infact feeling bitter,its incredible ive not seen the cet below like this for this amount of time for many years.

also must be noted the solar cycle is a little more active but still well below and with the jet still on holiday to the south it would seem although milder not nothing like what we have seen in more above years.

it certainly will take awhile of above average cet,s to remove the ground level cold and thats only if they go above and stay above i think this spring and summer are looking pretty much average to below.

as for the models there looking very boring right now nothing really exciting going on.

So do you think we could see another quite mediocre summer then? Personally I think that this summer is more likely to be better than the last three - especially in July as statistically we are due an above average one (remember we have not had an above average July since 2006 so it would not take much to get the warmest July since 2006!). Also remember the cold winter of 1995-96 (which had a rather cold spring too) was followed by quite a decent summer heatwise with several heatwaves, the realitivly cold winter of 2005-2006 (with the coldest period in late winter and Early Spring) was followed by one of the warmest summers on record, and of course the famous winter of 1946-1947 was followed by an equally ground breaking summer for the time one of the warmest of the 20th century. Also don't forget 1975 had a cold and snowy Spring which continued into June with the famous "snowed off" cricket game and then a few weeks later we were talking heatwaves! So I do not buy the idea that cold winters mean a poor summer.

Luke

[AderynCoch]

It should be noted that 74/75 was one of the mildest winters on record despite the cold spring that followed.

Philip Eden has argued that a warm, dry April correlates quite strongly with a wet summer (as happened notably in 2007):

http://www.telegraph...rils-fault.html

I would say that the same happened last year too (where I live at least). I'll gladly take an inclement spring if there's a good summer at the end of it.

Edited March 12, 2010 by AderynCoch

[Ben_Cambs]

So do you think we could see another quite mediocre summer then? Personally I think that this summer is more likely to be better than the last three - especially in July as statistically we are due an above average one (remember we have not had an above average July since 2006 so it would not take much to get the warmest July since 2006!). Also remember the cold winter of 1995-96 (which had a rather cold spring too) was followed by quite a decent summer heatwise with several heatwaves, the realitivly cold winter of 2005-2006 (with the coldest period in late winter and Early Spring) was followed by one of the warmest summers on record, and of course the famous winter of 1946-1947 was followed by an equally ground breaking summer for the time one of the warmest of the 20th century. Also don't forget 1975 had a cold and snowy Spring which continued into June with the famous "snowed off" cricket game and then a few weeks later we were talking heatwaves! So I do not buy the idea that cold winters mean a poor summer.

Luke

Yes but to be fair I dont buy the idea that cold winters are followed by warm summers, it isnt as simple as that. Its too far out to think about the summer, we have got Spring ahead of us still, and we should focus on the weather for Spring, as it can be full of many suprises, warm and cold. I will make my judgement on what I think this summer will be like towards the end of April, and see if Philip Eden's argument's and views are justifiable.

[frostyjoe]

Seeing as the day length late in late October is the same as in mid-Feb, I've never understood why they wait till the end of March (if they must put them back in the first place)- especially as the first pre-6am sunrise is delayed later than the first post-6pm sunset. If we moved it to the last weekend of Feb it would now mean the sun setting after 7pm- instead it gets light at 6.30am and dark at 6pm when most people don't start work till 8 or 9 but get home at 6-7 (Lucky **** I say having started at 5.30 this morning- it actually feels just as wrong when it's light then as when it gets dark at 4!)

The Americans recently moved it so they don't go back till November, they put them forward on the second Sun in March.

http://en.wikipedia....round_the_world

Interestingly Argentina (whose southern parts are at the same latitude as Scotland) doesn't currently have clock changes, but is in effect on summer time all year round because it uses UTC-3, when it lies around 55-70 degrees west (where UTC-4 would get the sun due north around 12 noon). The far south must get sunrise near 11 am in midwinter. Japan is the opposite; no changes but mostly east of its timezone meridian, leading to 4am sunrises and 7pm sunsets in June.

why do you think we should be the same time as europe ... for me and parts of scotland then we would be 2 hours ahead of the time we are supposed to be we arnt even at the correct time now!

[Milhouse]

Today was the first day of the year that i could sense Spring had arrived. It was pleasant enough outside despite a keen breeze not to need an extra layer. More of the same to come throughout next week as well.

[Bottesford]

Yes today was lovely - warm sun and no longer the need for the big coat. I even saw people sat in beer gardens - great stuff! A chilly wind but if you could keep out of it then very nice indeed.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

It does make me laugh seeing people sitting outside shedding layers making out it is a baking midday sun in the middle of March. Some people walk around in shorts and t-shirts as soon as the sun appears (but still with obvious goose-pimples). It seems very OTT and a bit ridiculous really Don't get me wrong, despite my appreciation of cold weather, the recent sunshine has been very welcome and come the summer proper then some pleasantly warm sunshine will be very welcome - but I find this immediate post winter phase rather absurd in that some people start acting like it is a sudden switch into summer when temps are in fact only just about to hit double figures!!

Edited March 14, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection