Model Output Discussion

[remymartin]

the low seems further west on the 18Z, dont want that, no use cold going into the Atlantic

I dont think there is to much difference maybe a tad farther west wrt the gh, but its beefed up the low to our south and a bit more progressive wrt low to our north

Edited February 9, 2010 by remymartin

[Bobby]

Looking similar to the 12z in regards to how far E or W it is, plenty of precip about.

[January Snowstorm]

Yeah similar trend, though marginal enough.

Greeny high remains strong which is the vital part, the rest will work out!

[Liam J]

hows this for fi..... anyone for a delayed spring, brrrr

not sure on the performance of cfs long range model

some days are even colder than this with LP spinning into low surface temps and thickness of 522

fantasy i know

Edited February 9, 2010 by james12

[Bristawl Si]

Looking similar to the 12z in regards to how far E or W it is, plenty of precip about.

Prefer that JMA chart you posted earlier though. Anyway it's no use focusing on charts that are a week away for the detail - more changes will come.

[swfc]

Yeah similar trend, though marginal enough.

Greeny high remains strong which is the vital part, the rest will work out!

looks pretty rank to me.heading towards a average cold snap.

[mountain shadow]

18z along similar lines to other model output. The actual position of the trough still to be decided. Some places WILL get buried others will be cold and wet.

[nick sussex]

The GFS 18hrs run just highlights my earlier concerns , note the two lows phasing around 138hrs, as soon as that happens this complex feature will just spiral around eventually lifting the cold out.

This is why its crucial the low is further east,the charts might look enticing initially with all that low pressure and some initial cold but its mutton dressed as lamb.

Certainly the ECM has a more favourable outlook at least for northern areas but even that has very little margin for error,we need to squeeze as much eastwards progression out of the output whilst theres still the timeframe to do this. The ECM even a hundred miles further east would make a big difference.

[Tom D]

Interesting looking FAX tonight.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif t+120

Plenty of precipitation there but also marginality.

[Bobby]

You often get Northerlies shunted East with time, I remember many that were forecast to hit us but ended up going into the North Sea/Europe. So I wouldn't be suprised to see this one nudged East too.

[damianslaw]

You often get Northerlies shunted East with time, I remember many that were forecast to hit us but ended up going into the North Sea/Europe. So I wouldn't be suprised to see this one nudged East too.

Not with those heights progged to the NW - this is not toppler territory..

Interesting FAX chart for Sunday, whilst it shows marginality initially with first couple of trough features, the cold uppers and sub 528 dam air would come crashing through from the north very quickly.

[Duane S.]

Wow, JMA is Hollywood stuff

Artic blasts, freezing Elys, polar lows (or not but don't spoil my ramp), Atlantic attacks, the whole kitchen sink. Plausible though if it goes a bit further East but the GFS and ECM look OK as it is, maybe a little marginal but mainly snow I would think. GEM is better too, so a nice trend emerging, let's see what the pub run throws up.

I have seen one or two other runs toying with the idea of a weaker Northerly system allowing the Iberian trough to move up NE towards us in about a week's time. It's not the form horse but it would be interesting to see if this starts to occur with greater frequency over the next day or two cross-model as this could be explosive for some in southern areas.

[Bobby]

The GFS 18hrs run just highlights my earlier concerns , note the two lows phasing around 138hrs, as soon as that happens this complex feature will just spiral around eventually lifting the cold out.

This is why its crucial the low is further east,the charts might look enticing initially with all that low pressure and some initial cold but its mutton dressed as lamb.

Certainly the ECM has a more favourable outlook at least for northern areas but even that has very little margin for error,we need to squeeze as much eastwards progression out of the output whilst theres still the timeframe to do this. The ECM even a hundred miles further east would make a big difference.

Good news from the ensembles, the mean has the low further east, pretty much perfect?

Compare to op at same time:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-180.png?18

Some very juicy ensemble runs there.

[Weathizard]

Good news from the ensembles, the mean has the low further east, pretty much perfect?

Compare to op at same time:

http://91.121.94.83/...fs-0-180.png?18

Some very juicy ensemble runs there.

What do these charts mean to a relative novice like me? and what does it mean for certain regions of the uk? (ie, which regions would it effect most?)

[Bobby]

What do these charts mean to a relative novice like me? and what does it mean for certain regions of the uk? (ie, which regions would it effect most?)

That's the mean pressure/height averaged out from the 20 GFS ensemble runs. This would be a better setup for all I would imagine, probably widespread snow if it's this far east.

[john mac]

Well im holding onto the ECM12z for hope tonight, the other models notlooking so promising,imnot trying to be downbeat but i just think that we have more things going against us than for us, i reallyhope im wrong

[loopydreamer]

well... if that were to come off i wonder if i would get from west midlands to kent to see mum and dad! im travelling by car next wednesday morning

[TEITS]

Im hoping for member 14!

Interesting that what some of the ensembles show is the intial LP move E and then LP to our S pulls in colder E,lys.

I agree with Niok we do need the ECM/GFS to move the pattern further E. Otherwise it will be marginal snow for most of us followed by it becoming less cold.

So im not saying this due to my location but because we would all benefit as the cold spell would be more prolonged. I have to say though this isn't exactly common what the models are suggesting. So I expect the models to struggle with this upcoming pattern.

[grab my graupel]

A new Model thread here folks

Will close this shortly