Model Output Discussion

[reef]

Enough bickering. Anymore and those responsible will be given a 48 hour vacation to cool down.

[Geordiesnow]

Fairly poor charts it has to be said, but there was always a risk the high will be too close and this is looking like to be the case. Only around 10% of the UK is looking like to be recieving any significant snowfall at this stage.

Longer term shows that a Northerly could occur but if the ridges too far west then we are risking having a fairly mild Southerly if the lows get too close but at the same time, we could still get something colder from the east.

So all in all, cold but for the majority, its looking DRY.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Anyways, the models are really subject to change, but if the Northerly comes off next week, we could be in for some fun and games, but at the moment I don't think it's worth looking at as it's deep in FI, which always changes. Back to the models this week, I think it's going to be fun for the SE and possibly London with everywhere else drier, until the weekend.

[kold weather]

Ensembles broadly agree with the solution shown by the GFS, easterly, then HP for most of the country, followed by a rise in pressure to the north with an anti-cyclonic northerly airflow and temps probably not all that far from average before -ve NAO becomes west based and a colder northerly airflow comes down.

Worth also noting not totally agreement for the GFS op run with regards to the easterly flow beyond 48hrs, however the GFS op solution is favored.

[Snowyowl9]

Coldest air to come later this week as the hard frosts come and cloudcover should clear.

Suppose to clear tomorrow going by one local forecast with more sun.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn607.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn6017.png

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Fairly poor charts it has to be said, but there was always a risk the high will be too close and this is looking like to be the case. Only around 10% of the UK is looking like to be recieving any significant snowfall at this stage.

Longer term shows that a Northerly could occur but if the ridges too far west then we are risking having a fairly mild Southerly if the lows get too close but at the same time, we could still get something colder from the east.

So all in all, cold but for the majority, its looking DRY.

Yes the models HAVE backtracked at the last minute.Kent looks good for a day or two but the pool of cold uppers has

shrunk markedly over the last 24 to 48 hours,there is no getting away from it.The HP is to close to us and we

are fast reaching the time of year were we need the cold uppers (-10) to achieve lying snow with no thaw.

I hope the Kent contingent get a decent dumping,no jealousy from me i had a real dumping in Dec AND jan so it

would be wrong to be despondent.im hoping the northerly comes off,it looks deep and unstable and the north of

the UK could see some good action.

There will be some cold uppers for the SE in general but they soon vanish so although some will get lying snow

i dont think it will last more than a couple of days.

Ian Ferguson posted about thaws the other day and it looks spot on.

[Frosty.]

Anyways, the models are really subject to change, but if the Northerly comes off next week, we could be in for some fun and games, but at the moment I don't think it's worth looking at as it's deep in FI, which always changes. Back to the models this week, I think it's going to be fun for the SE and possibly London with everywhere else drier, until the weekend.

Yes it looks a potent and prolonged Northerly developing next week on the GFS 12z so let's hope the high heads off to greenland because it looks fairly settled until that happens away from the southeast which might catch a few inches later ths week and maybe a bit more on high ground.

[TEITS]

Ensembles broadly agree with the solution shown by the GFS, easterly, then HP for most of the country, followed by a rise in pressure to the north with an anti-cyclonic northerly airflow and temps probably not all that far from average before -ve NAO becomes west based and a colder northerly airflow comes down.

Worth also noting not totally agreement for the GFS op run with regards to the easterly flow beyond 48hrs, however the GFS op solution is favored.

Just noticed that KW, quiet abit of scatter looking at the Cambs ensembles.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100208/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

Not bad ensembles considering the mean only rises above -5C right at the end of the run.

[Neilsouth]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/run/60-574.GIF?08-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/run/48-515.GIF?08-12

Excellent chance of streamer conditions in the south east corner

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png - OP looks one of the milder runs mid to late this week, looking at the manchester, aberdeen and to a lesser extent london ensembles it looks like it won't turn mild for two weeks especially midlands northwards

[Iceberg]

Very good ENS from GFS I would like an extra run or two to try and confirm it, but for Dorset the 00Z ahd a sizeable number of runs bringing mild air in come the 19th or so.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Now that's what i call stunning ensembles

Thanks for sharing.

while i agree that the ensembles are very good im still of the belief that we need -10 uppers at this time of year

for lying sustained snow.

-7/8 uppers in late Dec/Jan are usually more than enough,as we go into Feb its a different ball game with the longer

days stronger sun.I dont think this can be stressed enough.edit this is only my

opinion if im wrong im sure someone will tell me.

for example -6/7 uppers here today and sleet/hail/graupal.

[kold weather]

Yep good ensembles, most stay cold out to the 19th, esp further north. A few runs do bring in milder air at 850hpa by the 17th for London but they are still the minority and there are some runs that stay cold in the south even till the end. Obviously as we get into a more west based pattern the risk of a Lp attack increase either from the NW/SW and thus we m ay well see milder air come in but equally could end up getting a very big snow event as well, will be interesting to see what in truth happens.

[pyrotech]

seem to be alot of negativity in here today.

Firtly we have a cold outlook for next 10 + days on the models. Not astonishingly cold but below average.

Then although most of the country looks dry, but we all know that longer it stays cold the more chance of something creeping in.

Looking into fi and Ecm and gfs are totally diffrent which shows the uncertainty ahead. That is except two major factors.

1 The main jet is over north Africa.

2. The major models all hint at heights rising near greenland.

personally looking at the charts i do not think winter has given up yet but patience is the key, everything is in place

It continues to be a winter like the 80s, with plenty of potential and at very least colder than average.

I am in work now so can not post pictures.

[TEITS]

Latest fax chart should provide some interest for those in E Anglia/SE.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif

Could provide some snowfall in other areas (except Hull). :lol:

Just having a laugh Lewis, not offence mean't mate.

[Lewis]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png - OP looks one of the milder runs mid to late this week, looking at the manchester, aberdeen and to a lesser extent london ensembles it looks like it won't turn mild for two weeks especially midlands northwards

Now that's what i call stunning ensembles

Thanks for sharing.

Latest fax chart should provide some interest for those in E Anglia/SE.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif

Could provide some snowfall in other areas (except Hull). :lol:

Just having a laugh Lewis, not offence mean't mate.

Right that does it Mr TEIT'S keep an eye on your house, i'm swapping it with mine when the snow comes

lol

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Latest fax chart should provide some interest for those in E Anglia/SE.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif

Could provide some snowfall in other areas (except Hull). :lol:

Just having a laugh Lewis, not offence mean't mate.

The set up was always going to favour the SE quarter of the UK and so what we see is just that. 12z prolongs the cold because as TEITS has pointed out everything is further east. Now is that a start of a trend, not whether the HP is 28.11152345 km further south.

Correct, no snow for Hull.

BFTP

[Lewis]

The set up was always going to favour the SE quarter of the UK and so what we see is just that. 12z prolongs the cold because as TEITS has pointed out everything is further east. Now is that a start of a trend, not whether the HP is 28.11152345 km further south.

Correct, no snow for Hull.

BFTP

Swings and round abouts. If a northerly comes next week it's more likely to stay milder the further South.

Lewis

[BarnetBlizzard]

Swings and round abouts. If a northerly comes next week it's more likely to stay milder the further South.

Lewis

Yes, maybe but the gfs 12z shows the south is the only place with below -5 for the whole run/

[Snowyowl9]

while i agree that the ensembles are very good im still of the belief that we need -10 uppers at this time of year

for lying sustained snow.

Hows this going back a year or 2.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1983/Rrea00119830209.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1983/Rrea00219830209.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn842.png

Just a shift in HP position further north nearer the time will do it.

[Harsh Climate]

It really is quite funny watching people flip and turn, start throwing the gogo hamsters out of their pram every single run!...

Even when most people were suckered into believing this week was going to be very mild, wet, South Westerly based weather, the signs were clear to see that around 8/9th things would turn colder from the east... But quite DRY/DRIZZLY/COLD, rather than very cold,blizzards etc....... (except perhaps Kent/east sussex) NOTHING HAS CHANGED.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn541.png

Its next weekend onwards that needs closely watching, as that is then the uknown. We have a chance of the high retrogressing northwestwards around then allowing much colder north to north easterly winds set in. I think that is most likely and will be preceded by a front moving south with rain/sleet/snow being the order followed by snow showers in northern scotland.

And the amount of argumentative posts have been ridiculouse.. some members need to take a chill pill and calm down...

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif - Upgrade in my eyes and the 510 line isn't far away at all really.

[Mark Bayley]

ive got to agree with you on everything you have posted tonight,

i was quick to jump the gun with you a few days ago in regards to the model approach,

but it turns out you could well be right.

TRIM

but ive made my mind up brief 5 or 6 day cold spell for most of england,

and colder air holding on in perhapes northern england and scotland,things could change but unlikely now.

The models don't look brief to me! Stays cold for most of the UK out till T240 on both the ECM and GFS which is a good 10 day spell. Admittedly the ECM is milder towards the end of the run as the NAO becomes to west based, but it still looks quite cool/cold.

A dry week for most with snow showers mainly confined to the South East and East Anglia. Snow flurries can't be ruled out in other areas though! The sun will be a welcomed return. The main interest (for the rest of the UK) is what happens when the high retrogresses north westwards.

ECM on the way out now

http://www.meteociel...deles/ecmwf.php

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm has much more of a easterly upto 96h but pretty slack.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Swings and round abouts. If a northerly comes next week it's more likely to stay milder the further South.

Lewis

Hi Lewis

The 12 z is much better for you. The further east as it retrogrades the better. I think you'll fair quite well NEXT week.

BFTP