Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 23

[Blizzardo]

Well well well. The GEM charts we were speaking about a few days ago seem to the favoured outcome at the moment. Charts seem to be trending in that direction. All down to exact position of LP as the very cold goes down the west flank at this stage. Shift the LP east and bingo. An improvement on this next week be nice after this week not really delivering what we all wanted.

3 days ago I would happily have taken what it was showing and now if anything the ECM tonight might be even been better for Scotland in terms of snowfall. Its interesting that GEM is leading the way on this one. It did cross my mind that being a Canadian model it might be better at modelling this type of Arctic incursion. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that things remain the same or very small movements east.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Evening all.

T 0.7 here and dropping quite fast. DP = -1.8, so looking good if any of those showers decide to pay a visit.

The showers are certainly pepping up offshore of Aberdeen and taking a nice NE-SW track, although generally fizzling out before they reach fife/E lothian. Is the increase of showers due to that trough on the met charts starting to develop? Band of thicker cloud passing by Shetland on the sat pics anyway, and heading in the right direction.

[Snowplough33]

3 days ago I would happily have taken what it was showing and now if anything the ECM tonight might be even been better for Scotland in terms of snowfall. Its interesting that GEM is leading the way on this one. It did cross my mind that being a Canadian model it might be better at modelling this type of Arctic incursion. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that things remain the same or very small movements east.

Dont you think that we need quite a large movement east, perhaps 3 to 500miles to drag in a NE flow. I know its deep in FI, but just as an example, this chart with the LP 300 miles south east. (perhaps that is quite a selfish perspective......sorry)

Edited February 9, 2010 by Snowplough33

[Blizzardo]

Dont you think that we need quite a large movement east, perhaps 3 to 500miles to drag in a NE flow. I know its deep in FI, but just as an example, this chart with the LP 300 miles south east. (perhaps that is quite a selfish perspective......sorry)

My worry with quite a large movement east would be that we start to lose the influence of the succession of modelled lows moving south/south west and we end up in a colder but maybe drier airflow.

Probably a balance would be my ideal so I'll split the difference with you and go for about 150 miles east.

Edited February 9, 2010 by Blizzardo

[Snowplough33]

My worry with quite a large movement east would be that we start to lose the influence of the succession of modelled lows moving south/south west and we end up in a colder but maybe drier airflow.

Probably a balance would be my ideal so I'll split the difference with you and go for about 150 miles east.

I'll take that.........no dout this will just be another massive lat down in a few days but hopefully develops and be great model watching for the next few runs.

Was working in Dyce today and got three reasonable snow showers up there.

[Blizzardo]

I'll take that.........no dout this will just be another massive lat down in a few days but hopefully develops and be great model watching for the next few runs.

Was working in Dyce today and got three reasonable snow showers up there.

There is bound to be the usual up and downs over the next few days but hopefully it all works out well and we all get some decent snow next week.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I believe I mentioned before that the GEM was leading the verification stats for a bit, so hardly a joke model. It regularly beats the GFS into 4th place and competes with the top two of UKMO and ECMWF at times.

In terms of the east/west low positioning, I think the lows would give more snowfall potential but more marginality, though if the troughs were further east, at least initially, it would possibly lead to a drier flow or an attack from the atlantic but then again perhaps it would mean the -15 uppers would get dragged down. In that instance the flow couldn't possibly be dry anywhere really. Some talking about a major snowfall in 1969 from a similar situation. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1969/Rrea00119690208.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1969/Rrea00219690208.gif

It looks like win win to me, the only real problem is the trough being too far west. Put it in the North Sea with uppers -8/-10 and that'll do me!

LS

[howham]

I woke up to about 1cm of snow this morning but most of it had gone when I retuned this evening. Just had a wet snow shower though. This is the 30th day this winter so far with snow falling!

[Cheggers]

Not long in from work, saw a lovely sunset over Loch Lomond this evening after seeing the snow caps in first sun light this morning. Currently -2 here and clear sky for a change.

Just catching up on everything eating a pot noodle...(don't ask) and next week looking really good, but will add that this milder interlude or whatever it's called, the Forth and Clyde canal from the Falkirk Wheel towards Glasgow is still frozen in most places.

[Northernlights]

I believe I mentioned before that the GEM was leading the verification stats for a bit, so hardly a joke model. It regularly beats the GFS into 4th place and competes with the top two of UKMO and ECMWF at times.

In terms of the east/west low positioning, I think the lows would give more snowfall potential but more marginality, though if the troughs were further east, at least initially, it would possibly lead to a drier flow or an attack from the atlantic but then again perhaps it would mean the -15 uppers would get dragged down. In that instance the flow couldn't possibly be dry anywhere really. Some talking about a major snowfall in 1969 from a similar situation. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1969/Rrea00119690208.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1969/Rrea00219690208.gif

It looks like win win to me, the only real problem is the trough being too far west. Put it in the North Sea with uppers -8/-10 and that'll do me!

LS

I have talked about this 1969 event before.We left for school in the morning with snow coming across the Firth from the north only to be to be sent home mid morning in heavy blowing snow on a journey that should have taken 20 minutes or so lasting nearly an hour and a half. We only managed to get to a neighbouring farm about a mile and half away where one of our teachers lived and the minibus turned round as the drifts were building up. My sister and I then walked home through deep drifting snow and gale force winds. We arrived home in the early afternoon looking like two snowmen with one side of our faces covered in frozen snow caused by a temperature of -5c. My mother was none to happy with us being out in this arctic blast although we thought it was a bit of an adventure.Another occasion where the farm road had to be dug out. My grandmother who lived with us got the Daily Telegraph and I still have the cutting of the synoptic chart for that day which highlighted the cold and the strong winds which even at the time I thought was quite exceptional.Depth that fell that day difficult to tell as it was blowing so much but it must have been over 6 inches as we had 5 foot drifts on the farm road which buried the stone walls.

[asjmcguire]

Just to update you

it's 0.9'C, humidity is 67% and dp is -4.5'C there's a bitter wind breezy at times - not sure what direction it is coming from as it's hard to tell here - it seems to come from everywhere.....

So far - not seeing anything of much interest on the radar.

NMM says I should be at 1.8'C, hum 90% and dp of 0.3'C

GFS says 2.3'C hum 88% and dp 0.5'C

GFS has me progged for light snow (the almost non-existent type)

Guess we will see - but it would be nice to reach 0'C or below again if nothing else??

[Guest]

Guess we will see - but it would be nice to reach 0'C or below again if nothing else??

Hi Andrew,

I hope you got your frost, if not some snow

-6C at Glasgow Airport, I can't wait to see the frost outside

[Cheggers]

Morning Catch, looking forward to hopefully having a good snow dump next Tuesday

I'm currently sitting at Phoenix Park and can confirm very crisp and -4

[Guest]

Morning Catch, looking forward to hopefully having a good snow dump next Tuesday

I'm currently sitting at Phoenix Park and can confirm very crisp and -4

Linwood??

I don't care if the snow comes on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday Just as long as it comes

[Cheggers]

Linwood??

I don't care if the snow comes on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday Just as long as it comes

Aye that's the place, on route to RAH.

Too true, missing my sledge but happy with the lovely cold clear days at present.

[Guest]

Aye that's the place, on route to RAH.

Too true, missing my sledge but happy with the lovely cold clear days at present.

Ah, the glorious Phoenix. And the even more glorious RAH. Good luck to you!!

[Cheggers]

Ah, the glorious Phoenix. And the even more glorious RAH. Good luck to you!!

Will be IRH later as well!!!!!!!!!!!!

Off to do some work will check in later for 6Z update.

[Gilly]

-1.5C and overcast.........looks like a few showers in the skies.

Dollop (met - technical term) of cloud to the north and wondering if it will make its we down to us and drop contents as snow? LS can you help out there?

[Methuselah]

I can confirm that, Gilly...There's definitely a 'blob' to the NE of here...

[Stuart]

it been snowing here and about 1cm on the ground

[Northernlights]

Dusting here this morning and currently 0c Quite a lot of showers to the east over Elgin with them just grazing us with what seems an easterly element to the north wind driving them into the Firth towards us.

[Guest]

Dusting here this morning and currently 0c Quite a lot of showers to the east over Elgin with them just grazing us with what seems an easterly element to the north wind driving them into the Firth towards us.

Hi NL, I hope the weather has improved for your livestock.

There certainly seem to be quite a few showers in your area, hope you get some snow later

[Gilly]

Amazing although we have had a thaw still patches of lying snow above 700 feet. Was out and about yesterday and lochs like Loch Duncheltaig and Lochendorb are still frozen over.

The ground maybe soft on the surface but still a perma frost there. We will see what comes for us for next week........could be interesting even if shortlived.

The temps are never going to get particularly high for the next ten days or so.

[LomondSnowstorm]

-1.5C and overcast.........looks like a few showers in the skies.

Dollop (met - technical term) of cloud to the north and wondering if it will make its we down to us and drop contents as snow? LS can you help out there?

It might. It looks like scraping towards Inverness before heading south, giving the Cairngorms yet another cm or two of snow.

Looks like there is still a fair bit of intensity left in it.

Dusting here this morning and currently 0c Quite a lot of showers to the east over Elgin with them just grazing us with what seems an easterly element to the north wind driving them into the Firth towards us.

Look out for more later as the showers sink back down on a northwesterly wind

edit:

Someone is obviously aspiring to be on everyone's ignore list!

Seems to me, as i said before, that this month has been a case of chasing the cold that has never been in the reliable time frame. Looks like the rest of the month will be the same, with only 18 days of winter left (in my book) this Feb is going out with a big wimper.

A very big turn around in the models (showing in the reliable) is now needed, looking at charts in FI caught us out last week in regards to this weeks downgrades and again last night and on moday people saying next week is the week to watch.

Chasing cold in FI is mad, if we cannot get any cold in the reliable nailded first

Edited February 10, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[sunny starry skies]

Quiet, chilly, dry, sunny day in Edinburgh. Looks like the forecast snow for next week is edging into the more reliable timeframe (+144), but I'm not holding my breath yet as it has sat out in FI for weeks it seems! Some suggestion of milder air wrapped within it too (above -5C on 850s)? Though looks better (colder) behind, the main front. I can see some nervousness as this one approaches!

sss