Model Output Discussion

[MR EXTREMES]

Everything abit further west on the 12z thus far and looks a very interesting run for Scotland whilst a rather wet run for the SE as the front gets stalled...still the broad evolution is pretty similar to the 06z GFS run, just that bit further west to start with.

yep i go with you on this one its a staller not good,

its all staying far north what a shame still not mild though slightly below seems likely for the south but a little more below for the north.

[karyo]

The 12z places the low to the southwest of the UK for the middle part of next week, which is not a bad position. However, it spoils things later by moving slowly northwestwards...

A good run for Scotland.

Karyo

[kold weather]

Propbably a good run for Scotland as they will probably stay the right side of the center of circulation on this run and thus keeping the colder air for longer before it totally mixes out, and its very good for the Ski resorts, as they tend to do well in these set-ups typically.

[remymartin]

We dont know where the low is going to be, we dont know how far south its going to go, we dont know where its going to stall if it does. I would not worry about it to much at the moment lets wait till sunday/monday

[karyo]

We dont know where the low is going to be, we dont know how far south its going to go, we dont know where its going to stall if it does. I would not worry about it to much at the moment lets wait till sunday/monday

However, the models are consistently showing us missing any properly cold air. High pressure all across the northern latitudes and we're stuck with the low pressure.

Karyo

[MR EXTREMES]

We dont know where the low is going to be, we dont know how far south its going to go, we dont know where its going to stall if it does. I would not worry about it to much at the moment lets wait till sunday/monday

i do agree it does seem like its very unpredictable in a sense.

i think its certainly causing some headaches seems to be wobbling all over the place i 100% want it to go even futher west then sink far south.

to be honest even if it where to deliver nothing it could pave the way for something better will still have a couple of week or so of proper winter so maybe there will be a last suprise install for the uk.

but it could go the opsite way and just leave us in the middle of everything with gray cloudy drizzle.

is the meto 12h late or is that the wrong chart lol.?

Edited February 12, 2010 by badboy657

[Iceberg]

Meto has the low 100 miles further east at T96

[karyo]

is the meto 12h late or is that the wrong chart lol.?

The Meto 12z has been late coming out all week for some unknown reason!

Karyo

[MR EXTREMES]

The Meto 12z has been late coming out all week for some unknown reason!

Karyo

unless your iceberg lol.

t96 100miles east that cant be good surely.

[kold weather]

12z looks quite wet and fairly mild for the last week of Feb, seems to be a decent trend present for us to see an LP train to our SW develop, in some ways looks somewhat like the pattern that developed in November 09 but thankfully too early to make that sort of call but it does look increasingly likely that upper lows will dominate the pattern for the last part of Feb.

[PB22]

UKMO 12z has the depression centred over Ireland for much of next week, with it barely going anywhere. Plenty of cold rain or showers on the way, with any wintry stuff confined to the far north and over the hills.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

[Nick B]

Interesting point you make about the tendency I have highlighted above. I am concerned whether, even if the placement of next week's potential LP system were further east, there might be there a significant chance that exactly the same scenario could apply to systems originating in and sweeping down south from the Arctic?

i.e. As we move closer towards the reliable (for me well within 72 hours atm) might we see the penetration of the cold air to the South held back, keeping this as a feature only for mid-Scotland and further north? I'm not sure at all, but I wonder if this has previously happened. Also, the seas to the north of Scotland are not as cool as the North Sea, so if flow was slacker, surely we will then see more moderation and end up with a week of sleet, cold rain and the occasional wet snow flurry melting away? Trying not to be downbeat, but I see this as another distinct possibility, and am therefore curbing my enthusiasm with a healthy dose of realism / pessimism - therefore anything we receive after this point I now view as an unexpected bonus.

As per my earlier concerns with this low, imo we are now within 24 hours of the point where the positioning of this LP system needs to be firmed up properly in the models for the majority of the country to get more than cold rain. However, even if it does turn out to be a damp squib, could it open the door for a colder synoptic pattern afterwards?

[snowray]

unless your iceberg lol.

t96 100miles east that cant be good surely.

No not good. Also the shape of the low has changed, its now going with the GFS.

So UKMO throws in the towel in one run.

As per my earlier concerns with this low, imo we are now within 24 hours of the point where the positioning of this LP system needs to be firmed up properly in the models for the majority of the country to get more than cold rain. However, even if it does turn out to be a damp squib, could it open the door for a colder synoptic pattern afterwards?

Possibly yes, but not if the Low ends up hanging around Eastern Ireland for a week or so slowly filling, and then drifting ever so slowly back North.

[remymartin]

Right stupid question time. Is it the arctic high that is pushing this low down over the uk, if so have the models got a proper hold of the arctic hp or could it not be so strong as they are progging

[Coast]

Time for a freshen up, who knows - it might all change again!!!!

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