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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Your experience, enthusiasm and way you explain things to us beginners is very much appreciated.

Perhaps I have been at fault at picking up 1 line from 1,000 lines of valuable input you have given to the model discussions.

Keep up the good work

Here is what the GFS predicted for today a week ago:

The reality:

Shows how generally useless the models are beyond 5 days out.

Funny things is on a global scale those models look pretty consistant with a few shifts of 100/200 miles

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

On the northern hemisphere charts the Arctic high is a fair bit further east on this

run spreading higher heights lower down into Svalbard which should have a

positive knock on effect of moving every thing further east.

This goes along with what I was hoping for regarding the stratosphere warming.

Of course it does not mean the Euro's will agree but its a good start.

Edited by cooling climate
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Posted
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL

LOL maybe game over in your head but the weather will have other idea's thankfully :yahoo:

Just to show to those who say the cold never ends up in the reliable timeframe well those charts below should be a reliable timeframe enough for you and that is cold no matter what you say :help:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn062.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1210.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1217.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn123.png

I was of course refering to next weeks potential northerley.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

On the northern hemisphere charts the Arctic high is a fair bit further east on this

run spreading higher heights lower down into Svalbard which should have a

positive knock on effect of moving every thing further east.

This goes along with what I was hoping for regarding the stratosphere warming.

Of course it does not mean the Euro's will agree but its a good start.

Yes and a slower retrogression of the ridge to Greenland is looking beneficial.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

On the northern hemisphere charts the Arctic high is a fair bit further east on this

run spreading higher heights lower down into Svalbard which should have a

positive knock on effect of moving every thing further east.

This goes along with what I was hoping for regarding the stratosphere warming.

Of course it does not mean the Euro's will agree but its a good start.

Worth repeating what Chionomaniac said in the Stratosphere thread.

The one thing though that MMWs have shown is that thefollowing patterns are highly disruptive and quite unpredictable in there nature so tommorow or even later today there could be a change in emphasis to something more promising.

c

Personally I would love the LP to track SE into Germany.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

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Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)

Looks like a few were jumping the gun a bit this morning.

Periods of moderate to heavy snow for most of the country on Monday if this run verifies. Everything further east. :yahoo:

Edited by NorthantsSnow
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Yes northants you would of thought by now they would of sussed the models esp GFS pushes things eastwards nearer the time so to have it too far west was good, have to say currently i only see heavy rain for the midlands and south on monday though unless we get some decent undercutting of cold air behind that front, turning it to snow monday night, great synoptics to have at the T+120 hrs to t+144 hrs range though and a billion times better than a bartlett setup smile.gif

Edited by Eugene
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Better looking 12z thankfully, the low is quite a bit further East.

http://91.121.94.83/...fs-0-132.png?12

omg it is i dont flipin believe it this is totally mad.

its a excellent chart:drinks:

i know its only 1 run but perhapes a excellent call by eye in the sky,

well done eye.

just goes to show the experience of some posters in this room,certainly shut me up thats for sure.:yahoo:

Edited by badboy657
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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

Fantastic run so far, and despite the previous gfs runs suggesting it being further west it is inline with yesterdays 12z. if todays ukmo and ecm show a similar tendancy to push the low further east we could be in for something decent to end the winter on. The precip looks undercooked on the gfs but it cant be trusted at +6hours so not worried about that as things stand.

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

Stunning run so far, pretty much perfect positioning of the low, I might even prefer it a bit further West. Lots of cold and snow around.

This run has rain/sleet/snow written all over it. I cant see any decent accumulations away from Eastern scotland, perhaps northern ireland and just generally high ground...

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1442.png.

We need the low further south east, but I dont think thats plausable now within this timeframe..

Apart from that the best potential might be for a slider low in central southern parts, further down the line.. smile.gif

Edited by Jed Bickerdike
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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

This run has rain/sleet/snow written all over it. I cant see any decent accumulations away from Eastern scotland, perhaps northern ireland and just generally high ground...

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1442.png.

We need the low further south east, but I dont think thats plausable now within this timeframe..

Apart from that the best potential might be for a slider low in central southern parts, further down the line.. smile.gif

Its easily plausible for it be further east yet. Ive seen lows change 100miles at t+24 ask michael fish he'l tell you about them

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Couple of things to keep in mind. The cold theme is here and likely to remain, the retrograde could be slower than models have suggested. What could that mean, well as per the 12z GFS it could lead to things being further EAST and the UK and Ireland being right in the firing line of a northerly plunge, the trough E USA, ridge N Atlantic and trough Scandi set up. This LP developing to the NNW in the arctic could be a 'Bomb' and could develop into a significant feature as it dives SSE [i had a NW to SE movement progged back in Jan as potential scenario so wouldn't be suprised to see the continued adjustment to the LP being in the North Sea or be surprised to see a lenghtening of the cold as it is developing more slowly...great news]. The jet stream will be streaming well to our south and we could see a very very disturbed set up if the LPs tracking to our south on the jetstream and trough collide. The 12z would bring some very wintry conditions indeed and the way the models have been it isn't or won't be a surprise to see the eastward shift emerge and also consolidate. This would also feed to elongate the cold conditions.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands

I am going to put my neck on the block here. I think that past experience shows GFS eastward progression to occur in situations like this. It would still not take much change in the right direction for the majority to see some snow. For me, roll on this time next week. PS I have seen snow every day this week too!

Less sweating going on down my neck - the 12Z is the exact trend I was looking for. The excitement levels rise.

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

Its easily plausible for it be further east yet. Ive seen lows change 100miles at t+24 ask michael fish he'l tell you about them

Yes but theres a big difference lol... The one in 87 was a quick moving storm, whereas the one Ive just highlighted is just an average low going nowhere fast....

I think the best we can hope for is one of two things. For those of you down south there is potential of a slider/channel low, or be patient and hope a cold easterly can set up down the line...

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

This looks all snow to me away from the coasts, uppers of generally -5 to -8 and daytime temps barely above freezing, night time temps below.

Temps are the concern for us anywhere south of manchester. especially if you dont want it melting should it snow. temps at 3pm on monday and tuesday are forecast to be 3-4c on the gfs. wednesday there down to 1c.

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Excellent GFS 12Z, by the weekend of february 20th onwards if pressure rises to our north and east then we could be back to another cold northeasterly/easterly flow :D

Wintry lovers delight this run but not all is guaranteed to fall as snow everywhere, still would much rather have the chance of snow for some than none :D

It's like a April setup next week that would then deliver some great cloudscapes and convective wintry showers :)

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Winter. Dry cool Summers
  • Location: Bournemouth

omg it is i dont flipin believe it this is totally mad.

its a excellent chart:drinks:

When was the last time we saw charts that were showing something at t144 plus and those actual charts were what happened on the day? very very rarely. I am not suprised that things have moved East. I would add that just because they are better looking charts now does not mean that they will verify. We are in a situation where cold weather is now. ( a few light snow showers here today). Cold air is likely to stay with us for the next 7 days at least and within the period we have oppotunities to get snow fall.

Interesting model watching. Often people look for extremes and these are rare and therefore if that is what you want you are going to be mostly disapointed. Why? The clue is in the word extreme.

Finaly to TEITS. You said a couple of weeks ago that you were going to ignore the people who have a go at you. Like the Nike add "Just do it" they are not worth it.drinks.gifdrinks.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Another turn around, what did I tell you all?! The north would get an absolute battering from that, How would my part of the world(SE) do from this run? (as you can probably tell, I'm still learning what everything means...)

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

GME 12z is further east with the trough - ukmo late again on meteociel. second day running. wonder if sylvain knows if this is going to be the new norm??

Edited by bluearmy
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