Model Output Discussion

[nick sussex]

Stunning run so far, pretty much perfect positioning of the low, I might even prefer it a bit further West. Lots of cold and snow around.

Don't say that! you definitely don't want the low further west, you have to watch out for phasing with the low over Iberia, this then pulls the UK low further west. It's a better run by the GFS but still not good enough IMO, people must think I'm hard to please!

[sandstorm2]

When was the last time we saw charts that were showing something at t144 plus and those actual charts were what happened on the day? very very rarely. I am not suprised that things have moved East. I would add that just because they are better looking charts now does not mean that they will verify. We are in a situation where cold weather is now. ( a few light snow showers here today). Cold air is likely to stay with us for the next 7 days at least and within the period we have oppotunities to get snow fall.

Interesting model watching. Often people look for extremes and these are rare and therefore if that is what you want you are going to be mostly disapointed. Why? The clue is in the word extreme.

Finaly to TEITS. You said a couple of weeks ago that you were going to ignore the people who have a go at you. Like the Nike add "Just do it" they are not worth it.

Thank goodness for a bit of common sense and sanity, I have been looking at the 1200 charts and wondering just why everyone was getting excited at models which by the way as someone said earlier are just forecasts.

I like to look at FI and try to work out for myself what the evolution is going to be, and at the moment one week away it looks like the cold is her to stay for a while but as for snow I dont know.

And I will second your comment about TEITS.

SS2

[MR EXTREMES]

Don't say that! you definitely don't want the low further west, you have to watch out for phasing with the low over Iberia, this then pulls the UK low further west. It's a better run by the GFS but still not good enough IMO, people must think I'm hard to please!

i absolutely agree with you i dont think futher west would be agood idear at all lol,

still fingers crossed a little more east maybe it would be nice to see the core in the northsea run south dragging the really cold air kicking and screaming.

but i have to say although could be the start of another trend im still skeptical untill other runs nail it.

i for one would like to hear tetis views he had already suggested a eastward shift was possible.

Edited February 10, 2010 by badboy657

[TEITS]

It's a better run by the GFS but still not good enough IMO, people must think I'm hard to please!

No not at all mate because your right. I see the 12Z as a step in the right direction but as you say not quiet good enough.

Interesting the GEFS control run also has the LP further E compared to the 06Z.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-132.png?6

[Geordiesnow]

good 12Z GFS run for those who wanted the low further east although there will more than likely to be mild sectors attached so any PPN on this run is a little marginal.

I be surprised if the ECM/UKMO trend towards the GFS this quickly and of course it could be just a one off run but it shows that the low can head in a more favourable position if the block does not head too far westwards.

More runs are needed however and i think the overall trend is for a low pressure to come down from the North but how this affects our weather is far from certain.

[TEITS]

After reading comments im not sure if I have the bottle to say what I think about the UKMO.

Looking at the UKMO +144 and im wondering with the Arctic HP and the LP over Spain whether this could pull the LP centred over Ireland S. If this happens then just the outside chance of a bitter E,ly. :lol:

[The Eagle]

UKMO has LP further west.

[Snowy Hertfordshire]

Hello All

Nice to see the low a little further east - should be beneficial for all if it verifies, although still a long way to go yet. Also noting that the operational was on the milder side of the mean for the 06Z (but not hugely different) (http://www.netweathe...=ensviewer;sess=) so will be interesting to see where it lays for the 12Z.

Hopefully something for a little more cautious optimism this eve from UKMO / ECM - fingers crossed

Edit - maybe not on UKMO afterall...

Edited February 10, 2010 by Snowy Hertfordshire

[MR EXTREMES]

UKMO has LP further west.

indeed thats miles futher west than the gfs thats even worse for most of the country infact the whole country yuck dont like this.

but eye might be onto something looks like more model watching to come.:lol:

Edited February 10, 2010 by badboy657

[Frosty.]

UKMO has LP further west.

At least it won't be mild with the jet so far south, plenty of snow next week in the north at least whichever model you look at today, the north has more chance of heavy disruptive snow beyond the weekend, up to and including the weekend is going to be very settled with light winds but chilly.

[The Eagle]

Putting on my nimby hat that is where id want it to be on the UKMO. On the negative side whilst Ireland and Scotland has a chance if that came off most don't (at least at low levels). However on the positive side as TEITS says above it's not difficult to see an Easterly evolving from there. ECM will be interesting tonight to see what way it goes.

Edited February 10, 2010 by The Eagle

[Frosty.]

Putting on my nimby hat that is where id want it to be on the UKMO. On the negative side whilst Ireland and Scotland has a chance if that came off most don't. However on the positive side as TEITS says above it's not difficult to see an Easterly evolving from there.

Not just ireland, scotland probably has more chance than ireland in reality. Cold and wintry next week whether the gfs or ukmo verifies, probably neither will but the north is definately favoured as per the meto update today. :lol: did ireland get mentioned on the meto update?

Edited February 10, 2010 by Frosty039

[TEITS]

Unlike you to predict an easterly

Indeed very rare.

Speaking of which.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-5-0-372.png?12

I dream about charts like that. :lol:

[MP-R]

The GFS doesn't have the low too far west which is encouraging, in fact up until next Friday which is way out I know, the low is in quite a favourable position is it not.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html

Only later on in the run does the cold perhaps mix out with the low to the south. Or because the airflow is slack by then, perhaps some frosty nights under light winds like the post-Dec 21st snowfall.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.html

All quite encouraging and staying cold. At least anything resembling a return to the Atlantic is well well out in the FI at the moment. :lol:

[Iceberg]

Have to disagree with a few people, sorry the GS 12Z is very good indeed I would more than settle for that.

UKMET is a real bizarre 140 chart, following that one, it would reset the easterly again, very strange.

[NorthantsSnow]

Not just ireland, scotland probably has more chance than ireland in reality. Cold and wintry next week whether the gfs or ukmo verifies, probably neither will but the north is definately favoured as per the meto update today. did ireland get mentioned on the meto update?

The Met Office do not cover Ireland, only the UK.

Ireland have their own source for all things meteorological.

[mountain shadow]

That METO 144 is a big difference to the GFS at the same stage. ECM all important again tonight. However if their is one constant in the models at the moment it is to be too progressive with the -NAO signal and it keeps getting put back.

Suffice to say the heaviest snowfall of the winter is on the cards next week. Don't be trying to drive down the Cockbridge to Tomintoul that's for sure.

[Tom D]

After reading comments im not sure if I have the bottle to say what I think about the UKMO.

Looking at the UKMO +144 and im wondering with the Arctic HP and the LP over Spain whether this could pull the LP centred over Ireland S. If this happens then just the outside chance of a bitter E,ly.

Take a look at GEFS P5 - I think that shows what you mean. Very similar set up to UKMO.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-5-1-144.png?12 t+144

And by t+180 it looks very, very interesting.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-5-1-180.png?12

This then churns out this beauty deep in FI.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-5-1-360.png?12

Gotta love the GEFS

Edited February 10, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[The Eagle]

Not just ireland, scotland probably has more chance than ireland in reality. Cold and wintry next week whether the gfs or ukmo verifies, probably neither will but the north is definately favoured as per the meto update today. did ireland get mentioned on the meto update?

It's not thier jurisdiction to mention Ireland, not that they are ever that specific anyway, but going on the charts it's a toss of a coin at the moment. GFS or UKMO? ECM will be crucial tonight to see if it takes the LP into the North Sea or not. TBH both setups id take.

Curious about the potential after 144hrs on the UKMO aswell.

Edited February 10, 2010 by The Eagle

[Snowaddict]

Not just ireland, scotland probably has more chance than ireland in reality. Cold and wintry next week whether the gfs or ukmo verifies, probably neither will but the north is definately favoured as per the meto update today. did ireland get mentioned on the meto update?

Scotland, being further North certainly has the advantage, however Ireland is very favoured indeed on the latest UKMO T+144 Chart. Winds are actually from the South across the UK on that T+144 chart, so areas across the south in particular would not be heavily favoured for snowfall, especially to low levels.

Ireland is never mentioned on the UKMO Update Frosty.

SA

[Harsh Climate]

That METO 144 is a big difference to the GFS at the same stage. ECM all important again tonight. However if their is one constant in the models at the moment it is to be too progressive with the -NAO signal and it keeps getting put back.

Suffice to say the heaviest snowfall of the winter is on the cards next week. Don't be trying to drive down the Cockbridge to Tomintoul that's for sure.

The Gfs is certainly a step in the right direction and the UKMO more so! but we still have a fair way to go if theres guna be widespread blizzards...

[Frosty.]

The Met Office do not cover Ireland, only the UK.

Ireland have their own source for all things meteorological.

Thanks,

Anyway, we are still no clearer this afternoon with the gfs and ukmo going off in different directions but it still looks cold and unsettled with snow in the forecast but beyond that..

[cooling climate]

The trend from the UKMO (ignoring the low) is very good with the Arctic high

coming further east, southeast similar to the GFS run.

The low then imo would definitely move southeast with a potent northeasterly

for all, which could very well evolve into a bitter easterly.

One step at a time though and so far tonight the signs are very encouraging.

[Geordiesnow]

I'm not surprised the low on the UKMO is not further west, you just can't expect it to side with one model stright away and for all we know, it could be wrong(the GFS that is).

That UKMO 144 hour chart is a little strange because it might not be that obvious what may happen next. The low could easily just stay in "situ" if the Arctic high does not push it southwards however it could easily get absorb by the low in Spain and give us easterlies, whether the easterlies will be from a cold source will be a little debateable.

Its hard too tell how cold the uppers will be on the UKMO, probably just on the wrong side of marginal i suspect but Northern hills should do well i would of thought.

Still time for the eastward shift that some are hoping for aswell so maybe its a saving grace that the low is a little bit too far west as it can dampen down expectations on here a little bit.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Not just ireland, scotland looks cold and wintry next week whether the gfs or ukmo verifies, probably neither will but the north is definately favoured as per the meto update today.

Did he not say Scotland and Ireland in his post??

Anyway, I agree that the north looks win/win regardless of which model output (if any I suppose!) verifies.

I hope for the sake of most of the UK including Scotland that the low is further east, as the chances of it being pushed too far east look to be pretty much zero. The 12Z is an improvement from the 6Z, though clearly there is a marked warm sector http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100210/12/150/h850t850eu.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100210/06/156/h850t850eu.png