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Severe Tropical Cyclone Rene


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Yet another South Pacific cyclone forms!

    TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001

    02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

    WARNING POSITION:

    110000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 167.5W

    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

    035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

    035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 167.5W

    ---

    FORECASTS:

    12 HRS, VALID AT:

    111200Z --- 12.1S 166.5W

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

    045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

    24 HRS, VALID AT:

    120000Z --- 12.9S 166.3W

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

    010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

    010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

    010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

    045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

    045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

    36 HRS, VALID AT:

    121200Z --- 13.5S 166.9W

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

    015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

    015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

    015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

    055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

    045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

    045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

    48 HRS, VALID AT:

    130000Z --- 14.3S 168.0W

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

    010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

    010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

    010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

    025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

    060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

    060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

    050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

    72 HRS, VALID AT:

    140000Z --- 16.1S 170.3W

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

    015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

    015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

    015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

    025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

    025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

    065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

    065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

    055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

    LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

    ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

    NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

    ---

    96 HRS, VALID AT:

    150000Z --- 17.6S 172.3W

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

    120 HRS, VALID AT:

    160000Z --- 19.1S 174.6W

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

    REMARKS:

    110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 167.2W.

    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM

    EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10

    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

    IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF

    THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE

    BANDS. INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO AS

    WELL AS A 102002Z ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A WESTERLY

    WIND BURST ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 15P, WHICH IS INDICATIVE

    OF THE ACTIVE PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIEN OSCILLATION. THE UPPER

    LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH A POINT

    SOURCE ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND

    SHEAR. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 15P BUT

    WILL GIVE WAY TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST

    AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH SEA

    SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES IN CONCERT WITH

    IMPROVING OUTFLOW DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL

    CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

    post-1820-12658706588717_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Indeed Cookie, we now have TC Rene. Rene has strengthened fairly quickly over the last 12hrs, with intensity now at 55kts. Rene has developed a solid central dense overcast feature and is displaying some good banding features- a sign of a healthy system. Rene should continue to intensify over the next few days as shear remains low, waters warm and outflow good. Rene is currently moving east-southeastwards along the southern periphery of an equatorial ridge but the steering influence will soon transfer to the subtropical ridge to the southeast also steering TC Pat. This will force Rene southwestwards beyond 24hrs. Eventually, after about 4 days, the southwesterly course will bring Rene into higher shear and cooler waters which should induce weakening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    TC Rene does look decent and I'd agree with the current strength estimate of 60kts as well for that matter. Microwave imagery earlier showed though that the inner core is very poorly developed for a system of 60kts, so until that sorts out it won't get much stronger then it is now. Banding quite evident which is a good thing, the western part of the core wrapping up quite nicely but the eastern quadrant seems lacking in deep convecvtion and microwave suggests it has no real eyewall feature at all on the eastern side.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Rene has significantly strengthened in the last 24hrs, and has become a severe cat 3 tropical cyclone with intensity now at 100kts. A well developed eye is visable in satellite imagery, embedded in the central dense overcast feature. Rene has the opportunity to become a cat 4 before it reaches colder waters and higher shear on the southwesterly track. This will induce weakening, and eventually extratropical transition. Rene looks poised to hit the north island of New Zealand as a fairly potent extratropical storm next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Yep some big changes in the cyclones structure has occured over the last 24hrs and the inner core issues Imentioned yesterday very rapidly fixed themselves out overnight which has allowed Rene to take advantage of the good conditions aloft and possibly wil lstrengthen just a little more...

    Rene has a very tight eye feature as well, pinhole eye is quite evident on the latest microwave imagery though it is a little weak on the northern side, still certainly a HUGE change around from the structure it displayed just 24hrs ago. NE part is still the weaker quadrant with the main deeper convection on the western side and as noted just now a little weak on the northern side of the eyewall. Strongest winds should be on the SW side with a system moving with this motion. Also worth noting that 100kts maybe a little on the low side as Dvorak estimates tend to be a little on the low side with pinhole eye systems, however with the eyewall being weaker on the NE side for now I suppose I'd go along with 100kts, but could easily be a little stronger.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Rene doesn't look as good as it did last night with images of the system showing the structure of a sheared system, with shear coming down from the NE and therefore shunting most of the stronger convection onto the southern side of the system. Therefore weakening has occured and the current estimate is 95kts which maybe a touch on the high side given how the presentation has once again degraded quite alot, may well be down as low as 85kts now IMO...

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Thanks for the image Cookie, and your input Kold smile.gif

    Rene is holding up well so far in the unfavourable shear. Strong poleward outflow seems to be sustaining convection over the LLC, and intensity is only slowly decreasing at the moment, currently at 90kts. However, low level convergence is poor to the south, and waters are also cooler. In addition, shear is very high (around 60kts) to the south aswell which could rapidly destroy Rene. With the subtropical ridge to the east being the primary steering influence, south is where Rene is likely to go.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Very high shear is now bring Rene's intensity down at a faster rate. Current intensity is 65kts, though this could be a little generous. Northwesterly shear is placing the bulk of the deep convection to the southeast of the still well defined LLC. Rene should gradually turn to the south and dissipate over the next 24-48hrs in a continued hostile environment.

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    In the end it never hit NZ as a "potent extratropical storm". Just played its part in dragging high dewpoint air over the country (20C-23C dewpoints across the north), then merged with a cold front that swept up from the southwest.

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